Free Agent Pitchers to Stay Away From

Congrats to Terry Francona and Clint Hurdle for winning Manager of the Year for AL and NL, respectively. In his first year with the Indians, Francona managed a 92-70 season, ending on a ten-game winning streak, to nab one of the wild card spots. Clint Hurdle wasn’t of much surprised, as he managed a 94-68 Pirates team, which was the first time the Pirates finished over .500 in twenty years. He breaks the Sid Bream curse!

 

I’m so far 3-fo-4 on my voting, then. I really thought John Farrell would pull out AL Manager of the Year, but Tito is a great choice as well. Check out my predictions on Cy Young and MVP here. The Cy Young award will be presented tonight, and the MVP award will be presented tomorrow.

But hold on, Evan! How has free agency been going? Well, reader, it’s already begun!

Marlon Byrd signed a two-year, reportedly $16 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, sources say. Byrd batted .285/.330/.518 in 117 games with the Mets before being traded to the Pirates, where he batted .318/.357/.486 in 30 games with the Pirates. In 2012, Byrd was suspended 50 games for testing positive to performance-enhancing drugs. He’ll be 36 next season, but hasn’t slowed down much.

I continue discussing pitchers. Catch all of my in depth pitching and hitting analysis at the tab on your right. As always, there are some free agent pitchers that want big deals, but are they worth it? My stat on Wins Above Salary (WASP) might help determine it.

Here are six pitchers that I think are not worth the money. Coincidentally, they’re all starting pitchers.

Bartolo Colon

Age: 40

2013 Salary: $3 million

Notable 2013 stats: Posted a 18-6 record with a 141 ERA+, a 5.0 WAR, and a 4.03 K/BB ratio.

Wins Above Salary: 5.5

Colon arguably had the best year in his career, almost even better than his Cy Young year in 2005. He’s never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but his low walk rate allows for a pretty good ratio. His 141 ERA+, adjusted for ballpark factors, is the best in his 16-year career. He finished with a 2.65 ERA, which was also the best in his career.

The problem with Colon is age. His career stats since age 30 are arguably better than what he had from age 24-30 (though he had much more wins then). He’s dealt with injury, as well as being suspended 50 games for the use of PED’s.

The Athletics want Colon back, but only on a one-year contract. That isn’t too bad of a move, and is much cheaper now than he was back in the day. But after this year, he’s going to want more than $3 million. He’s told writers that he can see himself pitching three more years, but I and I think the Athletics don’t think that’ll be the case.

If he signs a one-year contract, it’s not the end of the world, especially for a winning team. Hopefully he can perform the same as he did this year.

Tim Hudson

Age: 37

2013 Salary: $9 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Went 8-7 with a 3.97 ERA (97 ERA+) in 131.1 innings

Wins Above Salary: 0.54

Tim Hudson has not pitched that well since he was a Cy Young candidate in 2010. His inning numbers have dropped from 228.2 in 2010 to 215 in 2011, 179 in 2012, and now a mere 131.1 in 2013. The question is: can he perform as well as has done before, while still deserving such a large contract?

My answer is no. Because of age and his slowly decrease in his pitching ability is much of a concern. His fastball can barely hit 90 now, and his curveball is in the mid-70’s. Yet teams still want in on Hudson.

Two teams that have showed interest, besides the Braves, are the Giants and the Red Sox. The Giants are making a lot of offseason moves this year, especially in pitching, so I can actually see them going at this.

Barry Zito

Age: 35

2013 Salary: $20 million

Notable 2013 stats: Went 5-11 with a 5.74 ERA, having a mere 1.59 K/BB ratio.

Wins Above Salary: -23.2

Unfortunately, the Tim Hudson and Barry Zito combo is completely eradicated. Now, they are the washed-up veterans that still want big contracts.

Barry Zito made $20 million in 2013. $20 MILLION. Yet since becoming a Giant in 2007, he’s put up a 4.62 ERA. He’s always had problems with his walk rate, and now that he’s striking out less people while giving up way more hits, he’s just a problem for any team.

Yes, during his time with San Francisco, he’s won two World Series rings. But now he’s pitching at a level where a minor leaguer can do much better. While the Giants don’t have that good of a farm system, their top four prospects, according to MLB.com, are pitchers.

AJ Burnett

Age: 36

2013 Salary: $16.5 million

Notable 2013 stats: Went 10-11 with a 3.30 ERA and a 9.8 K/9 ratio, but only had a 1.7 WAR

Wins Above Salary: 0.50

There’s been no word on AJ Burnett’s contract. He wants a lot of money from Pittsburgh, and at a rate that he’s pitching, it’s not all worth it. He has considered retirement, according to sources.

Overall he’s not that bad of a pitcher, but his WASP shows that he’s not worth that amount of money. What’s worse is that he wants more than $16.5 million.

The Pirates have a great pitching prospect in Jameson Taillon, and the way Gerrit Cole pitched for them this year, it’s not that bad of a move to just have him come up to replace Burnett. We might see better numbers and more wins for Pittsburgh that way.

Bronson Arroyo

Age: 36

2013 Salary: $16,445,535

Notable 2013 Stats: Went 14-12 with a 3.79 ERA in 202 innings, putting up a 2.5 WAR.

Wins Above Salary: 0.74

Arroyo is considered a quality starter in terms of WAR, but there are some aspects that make him a tough pick. First, he’s always been a home run pitcher, allowing 46 home runs in 2011, and 32 in 2013, both NL highs. He also has a low strikeout rate and usually has a high hits rate.

The Reds should avoid resigning him. They declined to offer the $14.1 million qualifying offer that could have returned the Reds’ a first-round draft compensation pick, but they decided not to risk having Arroyo resign.

The Twins have expressed deep interest in Arroyo, with the Orioles, Giants, and Phillies. He is a consistent pitcher, but remember that home run rate, and look at those teams. Minnesota, Baltimore, and San Francisco are pretty hitter-friendly.

Roy Oswalt

Age: 35

2013 Salary: $2.3 million

Notable 2013 stats: Went 0-6 with an 8.63 ERA and a .442 BABIP in six starts with the Rockies

Wins Above Salary: -0.45

Roy Oswalt has most likely seen the last of his pitching career. Oswalt has expressed that he would like to return to the Rockies, but that high BABIP seems to be the primary factor in not resigning him. He has also expressed interest in moving into the bullpen.

Oswalt has a career 3.36 ERA, but we haven’t seen much of those numbers since he was traded to the Phillies in 2010. At such a small contract, it’s not the end of the world (especially since he was once worth $16 million), but the Rockies have some pitchers in their farm system that could be just as good.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd