Starters and Relievers that are Unnoticed in the Free Agency

Hey! I’m 2 for 2 so far in the voting. Congrats to Wil Myers and Jose Fernandez for winning the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Award, respectively. Quick recap: Myers batted .293/.354/.478 with 13 home runs and 53 RBI’s in 88 games with the Tampa Bay Rays, while Jose Fernandez went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA, striking out 187 in 28 starts with the Miami 

Marlins. 

 

Tonight will be the Manager of the Year Awards. For the American League, the award is between Red Sox’s John Farrell, the Indians’ Terry Francona, and the A’s Bob Melvin. For the NL, it’s between Pirates’ Clint Hurdle, Braves’ Fredi Gonzalez, and Dodgers’ Don Mattingly. Catch my predictions on the rest of the voting here.

We’ve seen a lot of free agent talks going on right now. I mentioned batters a while ago, but there’s news that 13 free agents have turned down $14.1 million qualifying officers. These included World Series Champions Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew, but also New York Yankees’ Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda, and Curtis Granderson.

 Other offers turned down were Brian McCann, Shin-Soo Choo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Carlos Beltran, Kendrys Morales, and Nelson Cruz.

These are the guys that need big contracts, probably in the $100 million. But who wants to pay that money? Remember my stat on Wins Above Salary (WASP): Are the guys who are making this much money really worth the effort?

There are some starters and relievers that won’t want too much money, but based on statistical analysis, they can make a bigger impact, one even bigger than these big-valued players. Here are nine quality starters and relievers that could do well wherever they go.

Grant Balfour

Position: Closer

Age: 35

2013 Salary: $4.5 million

Notable Stats: Finished 55 games with 38 saves, having a 2.59 ERA, having a 145 ERA+ in 62.2 innings

Wins Above Salary: 1.51

Since becoming an Athletic, Balfour has racked up 64 saves in three years, becoming the official closer last year. In the past six years, he has posted an ERA under three five out of the six years, including having a combined 2.47 ERA from 2010-2013. His age has not slowed down.

Balfour is a fastball strike-throwing pitcher, punching out batters with a mean slider. His fastball ranges in the low 90’s, while his slider can go in the upper 80’s.

The Athletics made no qualifying offer to Balfour, so it doesn’t look like he’ll be resigned. The Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers have expressed interest in the fiery closer. The Tigers would be a great place for him, but it looks like Joe Nathan is Detroit’s number one pick.

Jason Vargas

Position: Starting pitcher

Age: 30

2013 Salary: $8.5 million

Notable 2013 stats: In his first year with the Angels, Vargas went 9-8 with a 4.02 ERA in 24 starts

Wins Above Salary: 1.03

Jason Vargas has had quite a ride; starting in Florida in 2005, he was a Rookie of the Year finalist, but by 2008, he was out of the MLB. From 2009-2012, Vargas played with the Seattle Mariners, putting up a 4.09 ERA in those starts.

Vargas usually can give a full 32 starts in a regular season, but was sidelined here and there with injury this year. At a 4.00 ERA in the American League, that’s not too bad. If he moves to the National League, that ERA can go to mid or high 3’s.

Steamer projections for the 2014 season (according to FanGraphs) has Vargas going 11-12 with a 4.15 ERA and a 2.0 WAR, a .299 BABIP, and a 4.04 FIP. Not too bad for a low contract.

Eric O’Flaherty

Position: Set-up Reliever

Age: 28

2013 Salary: $4.32 million

Notable 2013 stats: Was injured for most of the year, but went 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in 19 games with Atlanta

Wins Above Salary: 0.45 (Cut him some slack, he was injured)

In 2011 and 2012, Eric O’Flaherty was arguably the best set-up man in baseball, having a .98 ERA in 2011 and a 1.73 ERA in 2012. Unfortunately because of injury, he failed to produce the same numbers in 2013.

Just like Balfour, O’Flaherty is a fastball and slider pitcher, with sometimes a changeup. It’s nothing too special, as his fastball is in the low 90’s and slider in the mid-80’s, but it gets the job done.

The Braves should re-sign him. He’ll be 2013 in February, and hopefully he can bounce back after injury from 2013. The Yankees have targeted O’Flaherty as well.

J.P Howell

Position: Set-Up Reliever

Age: 30

2013 Salary: $2.85 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Went 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA in 67 games with the Dodgers, having a 1.6 WAR and a 176 ERA+

Wins Above Salary:1.35

The Dodgers arguably had the best relief in baseball this season, especially when Brian Wilson was signed. But with all of the top names in Los Angeles, Howell remained unnoticed despite his great work in relief.

It’s tough to find set-up men who can go 67 games and have a 2.03 ERA. That’s David Robertson and Joel Peralta innings. He’s also a left-handed pitcher, and was great against lefties in 2013.

Howell is like Sean Marshall: he relies a lot on a curveball and changeup. He’ll still pitch a fastball about half the time, but his three pitch system works effectively. The Dodgers should resign him, but if not, he could go anywhere for cheap. At only $3 million, he’s almost a steal.

Dan Haren

Position: Starting pitcher

Age: 32

2013 Salary: $13 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Went 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA in 30 starts with the Nationals

Wins Above Salary: 0 (according to Baseball-Reference, his WAR was exactly 0.0)

Man, what happened to Dan Haren? Here’s the guy who pitched so well in his prime, then goes to the Washington Nationals and dips. Well it’s not as big of a dip as you’d expect: in 2012 he went 12-13 with a 4.33 ERA, so it’s not like his 2013 season was out of the ordinary.

I like him for two reasons: his ability to pitch, and his K/BB ratio. Haren almost never misses a start, as he’s always been able to pitch at least 30 starts since 2005. He can go that extra inning if you need him, but lately you don’t want him for that inning.

His career 4.08 K/BB ratio is one of the best among active pitchers, including leading the league three times in the category, and having a 4.87 ratio in 2013. His H/9 ratio is a bit high (9.5 in 2013), but with a very low BB/9 ratio, it almost evens out.

Haren is not going to get a big $13 million contract like he did in 2013, and in fact might only get a one-year deal wherever he goes. The San Francisco Giants have rumored interest in Haren, which would be a very good decision putting him in that system. They are most likely losing veteran Barry Zito, so they might as well pick up a new one.

Francisco Rodriguez

Position: Closer

Age: 31

2013 Salary: $8 million

Notable 2013 stats: Combined with the Brewers and Orioles, K-Rod went 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA and had 10 saves

Wins Above Salary: 0.73

K-Rod actually had a great season with the Brewers before being traded to Baltimore, posting a 1.09 ERA in 25 games. He wasn’t the same with Baltimore, as he posted a 4.50 ERA there. He’s no longer able to give you 62 sages like he did in 2008, but he can give you a pretty good set-up or desperate closer role.  

Despite being 31, Rodriguez has put up some good numbers, but age is always a question. A team that signs him to a small one-year contract would not regret much.

Jesse Crain

Position: Set-up reliever

Age: 31

2013 Salary: $4.5 million

Notable 2013 stats: Posted a 0.74 ERA in 38 games with the White Sox, making his first all-star appearance in his 10-year career.

Wins Above Salary: 2.59

Jesse Crain has put up some astounding numbers with the Sox, posting a 2.10 ERA in three years in Chicago. He’s a bit strike-out guy (11.3 K/9 ratio), and has been able to lower his walk rate from last year (4.3 to 2.7 per nine). He deserved to be an all-star, as he was a great set-up man. Unfortunately for him, he was on the White Sox, a team that lost so many games on walk-off hits.

So far no teams have expressed that much interest in Crain, but the White Sox might want to get rid of him if they’re going for a rebuilding program. That, or the Sox keep him for a one or two-year contract, then trade him in the middle of the year for prospects. Overall, that isn’t too bad of an idea.

Joel Hanrahan

Position: Closer

Age: 31

2013 Salary: $7.04 million

Notable 2013 stats: Posted only 4 saves before ending his season with Tommy John surgery

Wins Above Salary: N/A (too injured)

In 2011 and 2012, one could argue that Joel Hanrahan was the best closer in baseball (ok, maybe not as good as Craig Kimbrel, but he’s good). A season-ending injury caused him to lose his role as closer not only for the 2013 season, but for a future appearance as a Red Sox.

At times, his slider can be dead, but he has a fastball that rests in the mid-to-upper 90’s. Two pitches that he can wipe batters away with, and that’s about all he uses.

Boston doesn’t need him anymore with Koji Uehara at the helm. If Hanrahan can return from his injury as swift as other pitchers have done it in the past, then his career isn’t over yet.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd