Free Agent Hitters to Stay Away From

The free agency market is now open. Teams have made their qualifying offers, and players have begun to test the free agency market. The Red Sox have put World Series celebrating aside, and have begun to make offers to their free agents, as well as testing the market. Two teams also still are in the search for a manager: the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners.

Teams have made their offers to the players that they want back, but they can always decline, and there are some that most likely will. Brian McCann has received an offer from the Braves, but he is most likely declining it. Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo have also received qualifying offers with their respective teams.

Well hold on! There are some big names out there, but are they worth the money? Great question, reader! You can check out the big name hitters that can make a big impact here, and the small hitters not worth much but can still make an impact here. But today, let’s look at the hitters that teams should watch out for in the offseason.

Most of these guys are on this list because they’re old, injured, or have just slowed down in their stats. So here are six players that I think will be a bust and are not worth the money:

 

Curtis Granderson

Position: OF

2013 Salary: $15 million

Notable 2013 stats: Nothing really, because he played only 61 games because of injury
Wins Above Salary: .37

Curtis Granderson is one of those players that is most notable for his power and speed. In 2007, as a member of the Tigers, Granderson hit 23 home runs, and also hit 23 RBI’s. He finished batting .302/.361/.552. Those are great numbers, but that was six years ago.

Last year, he hit a career high 43 home runs, but he probably had the worst year of his career. He finished batting .232/.319/.492, which is arguably his worst stance in his career. His speed has also declined sharply, and still strikes out too much (in 2012 he finished with 195 strikeouts, and this year he had 69 K’s in 61 games).

He is not worth $15 million. Teams can get the same play out of their farm system than they can with Granderson. Save money, teams. Avoid Curtis, or at least avoid a big, long term contract.

Mark Reynolds

Position: 3B and 1B

2013 Salary: $6 million

Notable 2013 stats: Hit 21 home runs and drove in 67 in 99 games with the Cleveland Indians and 36 games with the New York Yankees
Wins Above Salary: .65

In Mark Reynolds’ seven year career, he has led the league in only one category: strikeouts. From 2008-2011, he struck out 834 times, including striking out 223 times in 2009 (an MLB record).

He has never been able to hit for contact, as he has a career .233 batting average. For such a big home run hitter, he still only has a .793 OPS. At 29 years old now, his skill shouldn’t decline as much as older players, but they kind of have been. His WAR has only been over 2.0 (a quality starter) once in his career.

Compared to others, $6 million isn’t much, but it’s not worth Mark Reynolds. It is a decline, as he hit $7.5 million in 2012, so hopefully it can decline further.

Kevin Youkillis

Position: 3B, 1B

2013 Salary: $12 million

Notable 2013 stats: Played 28 games with the New York Yankees, accumulating 23 hits in 105 at bats
Wins Above Salary: -1.07

Historically, Kevin Youkillis has put up some dominating numbers, especially in his prime, but those days are over. He’s 34 years old now, his offensive numbers have not been keeping up, and I don’t think he’ll get a second Gold Glove Award. 

There are teams that need a 3B, or some teams that could use a 3B if they trade, but all in all, it’s not worth $12 million. If he signs with a team, it won’t be for that much money, and he won’t be playing like he did in his prime.

 

Clint Barmes

Position: SS, 2B

2013 Salary: $5.5 million

Notable 2013 stats: Great defender, but put up a mediocre .211/.249/.309 slash this season
Wins Above Salary: .97

Barmes looked like he would be one of the biggest prospects that came out of Colorado, but once Troy Tulowitzki came, there was no point for him. Plus, he has very weak offensive numbers, especially since 2010. He also will be 35 in March.

$5.5 million is not too bad; it’s above the average (about $3.5 million), but he is a good defender, I will give him that. Because of his old age though, it’s tough to look at him and see if you want to put him on your team. He’s like Darwin Barney for the Cubs: Great, great, defender, but those offensive numbers need to improve. The only difference between the two is that Barney is young and cheap.

The Pirates aim to re-sign Barmes, which isn’t the worst move ever, actually. Their third best prospect, according to Mlb.com, is Alen Hanson, a shortstop in AA. It will be a little while before he comes up, and Barmes could even teach him some stuff if he does come up soon. Signing a one-year contract with him isn’t the worst move, especially since there are not too many shortstops worth his salary on the market now.

But other teams, if Barmes does not resign, stay away. There are better options.

Rafael Furcal

Position: SS

2013 Salary:$7 million

Notable 2013 stats: None, he was sidelined the entire season with Tommy John surgery
Wins Above Salary: N/A

Rafael Furcal is another old veteran that even missed the entire 2013 season. The 2000 Rookie of the Year batted .264/.325/.346 in 2012, which are all at least twenty points below his career average. Plus he’s lost a lot of his speed, which made him such a great player. He can still put up some OK numbers, but honestly, if I had to pick between him and Barmes, I’d pick Barmes.

The Mets have reached out saying that they are interested in Furcal, after Manager Terry Collins said that young shortstop Ruben Tejada was not part of the team’s future “core.”

And yes, Furcal had Tommy John surgery, which is usually a pitching injury. That could also affect his arm and his defensive capabilities. Geez, this reminds me of Scott Hatteberg when he was signed by the 2002 Athletics. But hey, that actually worked out.

Lance Berkman

Position: OF, 1B

2013 Salary: $10 million

Notable 2013 stats: In his first year with the Rangers, Berkman had a .242/.340/.359 slash line, knocking in 34 batters in 73 games.
Wins Above Salary: -.45

You might have too said “Man, Berkman is STILL in the league? He’s ancient!” Well, he’s 37 years old now, and will turn 38 in February. That slash line above isn’t terrible, but he has a career .296/.410/.549 line, so…

Dealing with plenty of injuries since the 2010 season, it’s tough to put Berkman in position. His $12 million option was declined, so he’ll test the free agency market. Will he get anywhere? It’s tough to say. Don’t think that Berkman can lead a team to a World Series anymore, though, as he did back in 2005 and 2011.

Watch out for these players, teams! I’ll keep you updated if any of these players do get signed, and if their contract is really worth the money. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd