A Look at the Top Free Agent Hitters

Yesterday I listed the top international and free agent hitters for the 2014 offseason, which you can look at here. Today, let’s look in depth at the top free agents, and look at some that have already been signed.

First, let’s look at big players that will be worth a lot, but could make a big impact:

Robinson Cano:

Position: 2^nd Base

2013 Salary: $15 million

Notable 2013 stats: Batted .314/.383/.516 with 27 home runs and 107 RBI’s, accompanied with a 7.6 WAR.
Wins Above Salary: 2.47

Robinson Cano is the biggest free agent this year, and he can be a big impact to any team that he goes with. He has put up consistent numbers too: Over the past five years, he’s batted over .300, winning two gold gloves. His problem is that he wants a 10 year and $310 million, which would be bigger than Alex Rodriguez’s contract with the Rangers/Yankees almost ten years ago. The Yankees have said no to his wants.

So where will he go? Remember, he is 30 years old, but has not shown signs of any struggle. The only team crazy enough to spend this amount of money is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their problem is that they just acquired a new second baseman in Alexander Guerrero. They’re more interested in re-signing Clayton Kershaw and going after Masahiro Tanaka, so I think they might even be out of the question.

The Reds have considered trading 2B Brandon Phillips to a team because there are tensions between him and the organization right now. If they are able to set up some salary cap in his trade, they could sign Cano.

Other teams interested might be the Tigers, Mets, and Orioles. What I think will happen is that he’ll stay in New York, but it won’t be 10 years. I’d say seven years, $210 million.

Jacoby Ellsbury:

Position: OF

2013 Salary: $9 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Batted .298/.355/.426, having 52 steals, 92 runs scored, and a 5.8 WAR
Wins Above Salary: 3.14

Ellsbury has everything for a lead-off hitter. After dealing with lots of injuries in the 2012 season, he came back and helped bring a title to the 2013 Red Sox. Wherever he goes, like Cano, he can make a big impact, and costs a little less money.

Lots of teams are interested in him, especially teams that finished under .500 in the 2013 season. Ellsbury is from Seattle, and the Mariners have sought interest in him. The Cubs are another big team interested, as Jacoby could go back to Theo Epstein in charge. Others include the Phillies, Astros, Mets, and Red Sox.

The Cubs would probably have to trade an outfielder in order to get Ellsbury, but if they go for it, they can get him. Scott Boras is his agent, who have clients such as Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, and Alex Rodriguez. Wherever he goes, Ellsbury will get a valuable contract.

Shin-Soo Choo:

Position: OF

2013 Salary: $7,375,000

Notable Stats: Batted .285/.423/.462 with 26 HBP; had 21 homers and 54 RBI’s with 20 steals and a 4.2 WAR.
Wins Above Salary: 2.77

 

Choo helped the Reds completely with their lead off position. Any  team that is looking for a lead-off man should look at Choo or Ellsbury. He will turn 31 years old, but has put up some of the highest OBP numbers over the past five years.

The Athletics would love him in Billy Beane’s system, but I don’t think he will go there because of his salary. Because top prospect Avisail Garcia was traded to the White Sox, I can see the Tigers acquiring him, even with having Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter in the OF.

Other teams could be the St. Louis Cardinals if their top prospect stays injured and has to sit another year before being brought up. I don’t think the Reds will resign him because of the emergence of their top prospect, Billy Hamilton, but he could always go back. Watch for the Astros too, they might go after him.

Brian McCann:

Position: Catcher

2013 Salary: $12 million

Notable 2013 stats: batted .256/.336/.461 with 20 homers and 57 RBI’s; he played only 102 games due to an injury.
Wins Above Salary: .892 

The seven time all-star, McCann is definitely the biggest catcher on the market. He will be 30 in the 2014 season, and is probably worth much more money that what he’s really worth. He’s not a terrible catcher defensively, either.

The Braves plan on giving McCann a qualifying offer, but he is almost certain to decline. The only place where I can see him going is the Boston Red Sox. Both David Ross and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will be free agents for them, so they can always pick up McCann. He can always play first base and DH too. 

For a catcher, he has excellent numbers, but is pretty expensive.  

Carlos Beltran:

Position: OF

2013 Salary: $13 million

Notable 2013 stats: Batted .296/.339/.491 with 24 home runs and 84 RBI’s, and also batted strong in the postseason despite getting injured in Game 1 of the World Series.
Wins Above Salary: .898

Color Beltran as a dark horse: He’ll be 37 years old and worth a lot of money, but he does have that veteran experience and can hit. He’s lost his speed and his defensive capabilities, but is on the border of a potential Hall-of-Famer. 

I think he’ll stay in St. Louis before he retires. He needs to go on a win-now team, and I haven’t seen anybody else interested in him.

Jhonny Peralta:

Position: SS, OF

2013 Salary: $6 million

Notable 2013 stats: Batted .303/.358/.457 before being suspended 50 games for PED use
Wins Above Salary: 2.68

Peralta is one of the best offensive shortstops in the game, and showed no signs of stopping even after the suspension. The problem with him is that I highly doubt that he will resign with the Tigers because now they have SS Jose Iglesias. The Tigers did miss his bat when he was gone, but they probably have plenty of other options to replace him.

I don’t know where he is going to go right now. His agent has not specified anything, and I have seen no teams interested in him. He will sign a contract somewhere else, and I will keep you updated on where he goes. 

Mike Napoli:

Position: 1B, DH, and was a catcher but his knees have shown that he can’t take that anymore.

2013 Salary: $13 million

Notable 2013 stats: batted .259/.360/.482 with 23 home runs and 92 RBI’s
Wins Above Salary: 1.53

Napoli signed a one year contract with the Red Sox, and proved to have one of the best years of his career. He did sign a three-year, $39 million contract with the Sox last winter, but it was eventually negotiated to a one-year, $5 million, and was moved to $13 million when he avoided the DL. 

He’s a good offensive slugger that can drive runners in. His 38 doubles and 92 RBI’s were the highest in his career. He did strike out 187 times though, another career high. He’ll be 32 years old, and might stay with the Red Sox if they don’t sign anyone else. The Mets might be interested in him, as he would bring offense to a poor team. The Twins might be interested as well.

Nelson Cruz:

Position: OF

2013 Salary: $10.5 million

Notable 2013 stats: Batted .266/.327/.506 with 27 homers and 76 RBI’s before being suspended 50 games for PED use.
Wins Above Salary: .93

Nelson Cruz has such great offensive capabilities, and has continued to show that even at age 32. The Rangers will make a $14.1 million qualifying offer to him, which will get them draft pick compensation if Cruz elects to sign elsewhere. If he decides to sign elsewhere, I can see him going to the Yankees or Giants. 

With Lance Berkman also being a free agent, the Rangers really need a solution to their outfield. They need Cruz back.

Those are the big-name free agents offensively. Tomorrow is where things get exciting: Catch my insight on the smaller players that can make a bigger impact with less money.

 

BREAKING NEWS: Brad Ausmus is to be named as the Tigers new manager, after Jim Leyland stepped down. The 44-year old veteran catcher has no experience as a manager, and retired in 2010 after an 18-year career.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd