Awards Week: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win

Let’s take a break from free agency. This week is the announcement of the traditional MLB awards, set to be revealed by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). Today, we have the chance to see the Rookie of the Year winners. Tomorrow they will reveal Manager of the Year, Wednesday the Cy Young, and Thursday the MVP. Who will win? (Note: My predictions below are who I think will win, not who I think should win)

With the Rookie of the Year award, it could go all sorts of ways for both leagues. It seems as this year the National League dominated the rookies, having guys like candidates Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig, and Shelby Miller, but also Hyun-Jin Ryu and Gerrit Cole. The American League had great players too, but the NL just had way better stuff.

The American league has Rays’ Wil Myers, Tigers’ Jose Iglesias, and Rays’ Chirs Archer. Here are their respective stats:

Myers: 88 games, batted .293/.354/.478, 13 homers, 53 RBI’s, and a 2.0 WAR

Iglesias: Combined 109 games with Red Sox and Tigers: batted .303/.349/.386, 3 homers, 29 RBI’s, and a 1.9 WAR

Archer: 23 Starts, went 9-7 with a 3.22 ERA, 7.1 K/9 ratio, 2.7 BB/9 ratio, 2.2 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year: Wil Myers

Jose Iglesias seemed like the frontrunner for most of the year until he was traded to the Tigers and played just average ball. Myers came into the league and helped put a jumpstart to the offense. Acquired from the Royals in the James Shields trade, Myers has shown lots of talent for now and in the long run.

Myers leads rookies in doubles, RBI’s, OBP, and SLG %, as well as being 2^nd in batting average, home runs, and runs scored. He’s only 22 years old and deserves the number one spot.

Like I said before, I had Iglesias at the middle of the season, but since being traded, Myers has slipped ahead of him. I’d say the voting goes 1. Myers, 2. Iglesias, and 3. Archer.

On to NL rookies! A quick glance at the finalists:

Jose Fernandez: 28 starts, 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA, 5.8 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 6.3 WAR

Yasiel Puig: 104 games, batted .319/.391/.534, 19 homers, 42 RBI’s, 5.0 WAR

Shelby Miller: 31 starts, 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.4 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year: Jose Fernandez

Poor Puig and Miller, and even Ryu: all of these guys probably could win rookie of the year if they were in the American League. But Fernandez just tops all of them, arguably having the best rookie season since Ichiro in 2001 and Mike Trout last year (Ichiro won the MVP, Trout was runner-up).

If it wasn’t for Fernandez, the Marlins would have been even worse, and they lost 100 games even with him! That 12-6 record would probably be 17-1 if he was on a top 10 offensive team (The Marlins were ranked last in every offensive category). Just watching him pitch is scary.

He’s also up for the Cy Young award, which gives you a hint that he’s going to win Rookie of the Year. Yes, he’s on the Marlins, but he was the one bright spot. He even had the best batting average allowed (.188) in the MLB, which was better than Clayton Kershaw. I can’t wait to see how good this kid can be in the future. He’s only 20 years old.

If Fernandez does not win this, I think it’ll be one of the worst moves the BBWAA has ever made. It’ll go 1. Fernandez, 2. Puig, and 3. Miller.

For Coach of the Year, it’s between John Farrell, Bob Melvin, and Terry Francona in the AL, and Clint Hurdle, Don Mattingly, and Fredi Gonzalez in the NL. Here are my picks:

AL Coach of the Year: John Farrell

In his first year, Farrell was able to coach the Red Sox from last place in the AL East in 2012 to tie with the best record in baseball in 2013. He also has the advantage of, oh, winning the World Series.

The fact that he was able to bring a team from the ruins of Bobby Valentine to champions is fascinating. Yes, the Red Sox were a much different team from 2012 to 2013 (they made a lot of acquisitions), but they got it done.

A good example of Farrell’s work is the use of his bullpen. Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey were sidelined for season-ending injuries, so he could resort to only three main relievers: Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Craig Breslow. And I think he did a tremendous job incorporating all three of them, including using Uehara for four or five out saves.

Props to Francona and Melvin, as they too were such great coaches this year. But I think it’ll be Farrell, Francona, and Melvin in this year’s order.

NL Coach of the Year: Clint Hurdle

I see no doubt in this one. Clint Hurdle manages a team that isn’t really good when you look at them, giving them their first winning season in 20 years and into the playoffs. It was the best story to watch in baseball by far.

 

You look at their pitching, and you think that they are all a bunch of washed-up veterans. Well, they are washed-up veterans! Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, and Jason Grilli had their best years in their long careers, with Liriano winning his 2^nd Comeback Player of the Year award. 

He also has developed some guys to their fullest. Andrew McCutchen has become a fan favorite, Pedro Alvarez has increased his home run rate while decreasing his strikeout rate, and Starling Marte looks like the next star.

I actually feel insulted that Don Mattingly is a finalist. The Dodgers almost fired him in the middle of the year, and they finally get their act together to win. He has an incredible team that looks like the new New York Yankees, but loses in the NLCS. I personally think Cardinals manager Mike Matheny should be a finalist over him.

It should go Hurdle, Braves’ Fredi Gonzalez, and Mattingly this year.

Now for the real good stuff. After the steroid era, it looks like were in the pitching era, seeing the next Sandy Koufax’s, the next Tom Seaver’s, and the next Greg Maddux. Here are our AL Cy Young finalists:

Max Scherzer (Tigers): 32 starts, 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA, 240 K’s, .970 WHIP, 4.29 K/BB ratio, 6.7 WAR

Yu Darvish (Rangers): 32 starts, 13-9 with a 2.83 ERA, 277 K’s, 6.2 H/9, 11.9 K/9, 3.4 BB.9, 5.8 WAR

Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners): 33 starts, 14-6 with a 2.66 ERA, 185 K’s, 4.40 K/BB ratio, 7.0 WAR

AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer

I really like Hisashi Iwakuma and what he was able to do this year, but Scherzer just has it all. It seemed for a long time that he’d go undefeated in the regular season, and proved to be dominant in the postseason. He was the only one to go to the postseason of these three too. 

Scherzer and Darvish tie for ERA+ (ERA adjusted for ballparks) at 145, and Scherzer was able to allow much fewer home runs. Iwakuma does have a higher WAR, but Scherzer isn’t too far behind.

I personally think Iwakuma should win, but I think the real votes will be Scherzer, Darvish, and Iwakuma in that order.

I also think that Koji Uehara should be up for Cy Young too. His numbers are unbelievable, being the first person in MLB history to strike out over 100 while walking less than 10. At a 3.6 WAR and a 1.09 ERA, he beats out Eric Gagne the year he won the Cy Young Award. Gagne had much tougher competition too. The problem with Koji is that he became a closer in the middle of the season, so only has 21 saves. Just something to think about.

Here are the NL Candidates:

Jose Fernandez: 28 starts, 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA, 5.8 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 6.3 WAR

Clayton Kershaw: 33 starts, 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA, 232 K’s, 194 ERA+, .915 WHIP, 7.8 WAR

Adam Wainwright: 34 starts, 19-9 with a 2.94 ERA, 241.2 IP, 219 K’s, 1.068 WHIP, 6.2 WAR

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

 

I see no contest in this one. Kershaw is too good, and the best left-hander since Randy Johnson. The media compares him to Sandy Koufax, and I’d agree with that. I just hope he doesn’t retire at age 30 because he blew out his arm.

There’s nothing to talk about here, it’ll be Kershaw. I think Wainwright will be runner up, and Fernandez third.

Last year, it was all the talk about Miguel Cabrera vs Mike Trout. Cabrera won the Triple Crown, while Trout was the sabermetric king. Cabrera was able to win by a landslide. This time, the same conditions apply. Although Cabrera was not the Triple Crown winner, he’s arguably better this year than last, and Trout is still a statistician favorite. Chris Davis led the league with home runs, but that’s about it.

Cabrera: 148 games, batted .348/.442/.636 with 44 homers, 137 RBI’s, and a 7.2 WAR

Trout: 157 games, batted .323/.432/.557 with 27 homers, 97 RBI’s, 33 steals, and a 9.2 WAR

Davis: 160 games, batted .286/.370/.634 with 53 homers, 138 RBI’s, and a 6.3 WAR

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera

Now you know I won’t agree with this. I obviously want Trout because I’m a stat nerd. But Cabrera proved to be the best hitter in baseball, and despite getting injured towards the end of the season, Cabrera will win back-to-back MVP’s. Poor Trout, as he probably would have his 2^nd if he was in the NL.

It’ll be Cabrera, Trout, and Davis in that order. I think the voting will be much closer than last year, though.

The NL candidates are the Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen, the D-Backs’ Paul Goldschmidt, and the Cardinals’ Yadier Molina. Here are their stats:

McCutchen: 157 games, batted .317/.404/.508 with 21 homers 84 RBI’s, 27 steals, and an 8.2 WAR

Goldschmidt: 160 games, batted .302/.401/.551 with 36 homers, 125 RBI’s, and a 7.1 WAR

Molina: 136 games, batted .319/.359/.477 with 12 homers, 80 RBI’s, and a 5.7 WAR

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen

Despite Goldschmidt winning a silver slugger, gold glove, and the Hank Aaron Award for best hitter, and Molina too winning a gold glove and led his team to the World Series, McCutchen will win it.

This one is real tough. I personally am rooting for Goldschmidt, but McCutchen has the postseason factor, leadership factor, and can hit for contact, power, plus is a great base runner. He’s also so patient at the plate; when you watch him at an at-bat, he lets go pitches that others usually easily swing-and-miss at. He’s a smart baseball player.

A lot of people wanted Kershaw in the mix for MVP too, but when you look at all three of these guys, how can you fit Kershaw into it? I think Goldschmidt will be the runner up, with Molina in third.

Don’t agree with me? Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com