A Look at the Top Free Agent Pitchers

With free agents still in the mix, it’s time to look at the top free agent pitchers for the 2013-2014 offseason. There are some big names here, guys who are young or in early 30’s that want big deals. Teams that are looking for some big free agent pitching are the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and even the Houston Astros. Other teams that should be more interested are the Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, and San Francisco Giants.

With that, let’s take a look at the top starters and relievers. I have them listed in an order of my personal rank, which might be different from others, but is relatively the same. Here are my top 5 starters:

Masahiro Tanaka:

Age: 24

2013 Salary: Tanaka had yet to pitch in the MLB, as he has played 7 seasons in Japan so far. He will most likely receive over a $100 million contract when he comes.

Notable 2013 Stats: In Japan, Tanaka went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA in 212 innings, striking out 183.
Wins Above Salary:  N/A (Japan)

Tanaka continues to be my favorite in this year’s offseason. When you look at his numbers and his pitching, it’s unbelievable. But yes, it’s Japan and not the US, so how can you compare these numbers?

Here are some things to look at. These stats are much better than Yu Darvish’s numbers the year before he came into the MLB, all at a younger age. If you convert his numbers into MLB numbers, Tanaka would probably have a 17-7 record with a 2.80 ERA.

Don’t expect him to go undefeated and have a sub-2 ERA when he comes into the MLB, but expect him to make a quality impact wherever he goes, as well as be a Cy Young winner at some point in his career.

I’ve heard that the Dodgers are interested in trading for David Price and acquiring Tanaka in this offseason, which I don’t know how they could possibly do. That is such a huge expenditure, but hey, they have the money somewhere, and then they would have four aces and a solid two-man on their roster.

It seems like the Cubs have been the frontrunners for Tanaka, but the Yankees have started to show a lot of interest recently. Wherever he goes, he will make a big impact, but will also need a lot of money to do it.

Matt Garza

Age: 29

2013 Salary: $10.25 million

Notable 2013 stats: Was injured for most of the beginning of the year, but he went 6-1 with a 3.17 ERA with the Cubs before being traded to the Rangers and went 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA.

Wins Above Salary: .52 (Combined with both teams)

Just like how he was the biggest topic at the trade deadline, Garza is back in the free agent heat. He will probably receive the highest contract among pitchers, and will be at that team for 5-6 years. He was injured for most of the 2012 and 2013 season, but now says that he is “injury-free.”

The Yankees have shown interest in Garza, but let’s be honest, the Yankees are looking at everybody right now. Color Garza as a dark horse: he has been injured but has still shown some strong pitching outings. Is he worth all the money? It’s really hard to tell. But he’s going to get a big contract no matter where he goes.

Ervin Santana

Age: 30

2013 Salary: $13 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Went 9-10, but had a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings, striking out 161 in 32 starts
Wins Above Salary: .86

I really like Ervin Santana and what he has not only been able to do, but what he’s been able to adjust. He led the Majors with 39 home runs allowed in 2012, but dropped it to 26 this season. He also increased his K/BB ratio by a point, too.

But good lord does he want a huge salary that he does not deserve. He’s not going to get a big $100 million deal, but he will get a pretty good amount that I think he’ll still like. If the Dodgers do not get Tanaka, then I can see them getting Santana, and the same thing goes for the Cubs.

He’s a quality arm, but wants too much for the buck.

 

Hiroki Kuroda:

Age: 38

2013 Salary: $15 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Had a sub 3 ERA for the most part of the season before reverting to a 3.31 ERA, finishing 11-13.
Wins Above Salary: 1.33

Obviously Kuroda’s problem is his age, but that hasn’t slowed him down that much. Since becoming a Yankee he has gone 27-24 with a 3.31 ERA, combining his two years with a 9.6 WAR. That’s really not that bad for a guy his age.

The Yankees have not talked with Kuroda about resigning him yet, but they have received qualifying offers. Now it’s just whether Kuroda will accept it or not. He’s not going to get such a long term deal, so he’s going to go on a team that is planning on winning now.

Ubaldo Jimenez:

Age: 29

2013 Salary: $5.75 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Went 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA, which was a much better adjustment from his 2012 season.
Wins Above Salary: 2.28

After having one of the best seasons baseball has seen in this decade, Jimenez basically fell off the map, and I thought he was done for when he went 9-17 with a 5.40 ERA in 2012. He made a major adjustment in 2013 though, and helped the Indians get to the playoffs. He has the second best strikeout rate in this class behind A.J. Burnett, and has consistently lowered his walk rate since being in Cleveland.

Jimenez will most likely get more than $6 million, but he won’t be needing a $100 million contract like the other guys. The Indians are not expected to re-sign Jimenez though, which is kind of surprising. Jimenez has expressed that he wants to make money, but first wants to make the playoffs. The Yankees have expressed interest in him.

Note: I did not include top free agents like Jon Lester and James Shields, particularly because it looks like they are just going to resign with their former team. With those five, let’s also look at the top five free agent relievers on the market:

Brian Wilson:

Age: 31

2013 Salary: $8.5 million

Notable 2013 Stats: After coming off from injury, Wilson went 2-1 with a .66 ERA in 18 games with the Dodgers.
Wins Above Salary: 0.34 (This would probably be higher if he came back from injury sooner)

Brian Wilson is back. He has recovered from all of his surgeries, and actually looks even better than when he was on the Giants. That’s kind of scary to imagine. He was such a great reliever for the Giants, having 48 saves and a 1.81 ERA on their 2010 World Champion team. He also looked dominant setting up Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers this year.

The Rockies have shown a lot of interest in rebuilding their bullpen, starting with Wilson at the helm. That’s not that bad of a move whatsoever. Plus, with such a great beard like Wilson, how can you not want him?

Fernando Rodney:

Age: 36

2013 Salary: $2.5 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Had 37 saves with a 3.38 ERA in 66.2 innings pitched
Wins Above Salary: 0.48

In 2012, Rodney was virtually unhittable, having 48 saves and a 0.60 ERA, finishing 5^th in the Cy Young voting. That’s no longer the case for Rodney, but what he brings is a great finisher at a cheap price.

What he had  a problem with this year was control. He finished with a 4.9 BB/9 ratio, jumping up from 1.8 in 2012. He did have a career best 11.1 K/9 ratio as well, though.

The Tigers need a closer with Joaquin Benoit leaving, so Rodney could always go back to his former team. He won’t sign a big contract and isn’t a long-term closer, but is great for a win-now team like the Tigers, especially one that had so many problems with the bullpen this season.

Joe Nathan:

Age: 38

2013 Salary: $7 million

Notable 2013 Stats: Had 43 saves and a 1.39 ERA in 64 innings pitched with the Rangers.
Wins Above Salary: 2.22

Joe Nathan had one of the best years in his career in 2013, showing that his age has not declined. It looks like he is eying a two-year deal with some team, and wants to be on a winning team. He’s never closed out in the postseason, as he’s never made it passed the Divisional Series.

The Tigers would be a great fit for him, but I’ve also heard that he’s interested in the Los Angeles Angels. It looks like once more there will be a Rangers-to-Angels switch. He’ll be ready for some boos.

Joaquin Benoit:

Age: 35

2013 Salary: $5.5 million

Notable 2013 stats: Went 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA and had 24 saves
Wins Above Salary: 2.47

Benoit will probably forever be remembered as that guy who gave up the grand slam to David Ortiz in the 2013 ALCS, but he should really be remembered as “that guy who saved the Detroit bullpen.” When he was put in the closing role, he wasn’t a Koji Uehara, but he was very good nonetheless.

Despite the fact that he was a big help for Detroit, they will be parting ways. The Phillies have expressed interest in Benoit, as well as the Cubs.

 

Edward Mujica:

Age: 29

2013 Salary: $3.2 million

Notable 2013 stats: In his first year as a closer, he put up 37 saves with a 2.78 ERA, but lost his role in September after a miserable month.
Wins Above Salary: 1.5

Mujica was absurd for the majority of the season, but then Trevor Rosenthal came for the Cardinals and he lost his job. He wows statisticians with his 9.20 K/BB ratio, despite striking out only 46 (you do the math!).

The Phillies have also expressed interest in Mujica, so watch out for Philly to take a stab at him. Another team that has expressed interest is the Oakland Athletics.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd