Wednesday, November 27, 2013

The Hall of Fame List is Going to Skyrocket



One has said that a player can never get into the baseball Hall of Fame unanimously. For one thing, technically that’s not true. Two players, Josh Gibson and Cool Papa Bell, were elected unanimously into the baseball Hall of Fame. Here’s the catch: Gibson and Bell played in the Negro Leagues, and they were not selected by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), who vote on players now, but rather the Veterans Committee based on the Negro league career.

So no MLB player has ever been selected unanimously. How is that possible? Who ever said, “No, I don’t think Babe Ruth should be in the Hall of Fame.”

I don’t think it’s a reason for that, but rather a matter of if they get elected on the first ballot or not. Remember, when a player is on the Hall of Fame ballot, if they don’t get in the first time, they have plenty of more years to try and still get in. In fact, Jack Morris is in his last chance to be on the ballot, after being on it for 14 years.

Yet some do get it on the first ballot, and some do almost get it unanimously. Of the 297 individuals inducted (236 players, 20 managers, 9 umpires, and 32 pioneers and executives), only 33 have been inducted with 90% or more of the vote. Besides Gibson and Bell, the players receiving 98% or more of the vote are Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Cal Ripken Jr., Ty Cobb, and George Brett.

Last year, nobody was inducted into the Hall of Fame, the first time that happened since 1996, and only the 8th time in history. Craig Biggio led the voting with 68.2%, with Morris closely behind him with 67.7%. You need 75% support to be elected.

Luckily, for this year, as well as the next few years, the Hall of Fame lineup is stacked, and there are some guys that will get in for sure. The 2014 list is led by Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Mike Mussina, and Jeff Kent, along with guys like Moises Alou, Luis Gonzalez, Kenny Rogers, and a bunch of other names that have no real chance in getting in. But hey, it’s still an accomplishment to be on the balloting.

Why did I question so much how nobody has been voted in unanimously? Because of this 2014 lineup. How can you tell me that Greg Maddux does not deserve the Hall of Fame?

 
I’ll be honest, Maddux might break the BBWAA record of Seaver’s 98.84%. Maddux is arguably in the top 5 greatest pitchers of all time, putting him up there with Walter Johnson and Cy Young. In an steroid era with guys like Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa (who all, to be noted, are also on the Hall of Fame balloting), Maddux recorded some of the lowest ERA’s in history.

From 1992-1998 (yes, 1998 even, with the Sosa-McGwire home run duel), Maddux was able to pull out 127 wins with a 2.15 ERA, a 190 ERA+, and a combined 54.7 WAR. Some of the guys on this ballot don’t have a career 54.7 WAR. Maddux is 8th all-time with a 104.6 WAR (arguably 7th if you rule out Bonds).

Maddux played almost all of his career with the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs. When the Cubs did not resign him in the 1992 offseason, after winning his first Cy Young award, Maddux went on to the Braves to win three more… in a row.

Another notable stat by Maddux is how amazing of a defender he was. He leads pitchers all-time with 18 Gold Glove Awards- 14 of those in a row.

Maddux finished his career with 355 wins and a career 3.16 ERA in over 5000 innings pitched. So how can you say he isn’t a unanimous pick?

Greg Maddux will be in the Hall of Fame on January 8th, there’s no doubt about it.

It’s safe to say that Greg’s partner in crime in Atlanta, Tom Glavine, is a sure-pick this year as well. Another 300 game winner, Glavine is a two-time Cy Young winner with a career 74.0 WAR.

 
In 1988, his first official year in baseball, Glavine led the NL with 17 losses. Then suddenly he wins over 100 games in the next six-seven years. Hey, things can change. Glavine led the NL five times in wins, getting at least 15 wins in 10 of his 22 years.

Glavine is no Greg Maddux, but he sure is incredible. As one of the best duo’s in pitching that baseball has ever seen, both deserve to be first-ballot hall-of-famers.


It’s safe to say that Frank Thomas and Craig Biggio will get in this year, but they won’t get in unanimously. This is Frank Thomas’ first year on the ballot. The Big Hurt slugged 521 home runs and 1,704 RBI’s in his career, winning back-to-back MVP’s in 1993 and 1994. He has a career .301/.419/.555 slash line, which is incredible for anyone that plays 19 years.

What I love about Frank is that he was in an era filled with PED users, yet he was one of the big men that was a huge advocate against the use of steroids. That’s what makes him stand out among guys like Sosa, McGwire, and Bonds. I think he deserves to get in this year, if not next year.
 

Craig Biggio was your all-around player for the Houston Astros in the 90’s. A member of the 3000-hit club, Biggio enters the year on his 2nd year of eligibility. He could do everything, from hitting for contact, power, and was an amazing defender and baserunner. He also has 285 career hit-by-pitches.

Biggo and Thomas will get in… it’s just a matter of when.



Some guys on the bubble are Mike Mussina, Jack Morris, Tim Raines, and Jeff Kent. Kent and Mussina are on the ballot for the first time. Morris might get in because this is his last year on the ballot, and Mussina, Raines, and Kent might just have to wait a while to get in.

There won’t be no inductees like last year for a long time now. In fact, the list only gets better and better. Next year, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, and John Smoltz will be on the list. In 2016, Ken Griffey Jr., Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner will be on the list.

It’s the biggest honor that a baseball player can get. It’s time to honor the greats that have played. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

Monday, November 25, 2013

The Free Agency Starts to Heat Up



The Cardinals are on a roll. After just trading 3B David Freese to the Angels for OF Peter Bourjos, they strike in the free agency by acquiring Jhonny Peralta.

Peralta has reportedly signed a 4-year, $52 million deal ($13 million/year) with St. Louis. This adds a top-hitting shortstop that they did not have with Pete Kozma or Daniel Descalso. Peralta can also play outfield. He’s not as good of a defender as those two, but he’s still ok. The Cardinals also have all-star SS Rafael Furcal, but he was sidelined the entire year in 2013 with an elbow injury

Peralta, 31, is a two-time all-star who has played his last four seasons with the Detroit Tigers. He was a top prospect for the Cleveland Indians in his younger days, batting .266/.331/.425 for the Tribe from 2003-2009, which is very respectable for shortstops.


Last season, Peralta batted .303/.358/.457 in 107 games before he was suspended 50 games as his name was tied to the Biogenesis scandal. Despite being suspended towards the end of the year, he came back for the Tigers in the playoffs and performed quite well. 


Here’s something to note though. In 2012, Peralta batted only .239/.305/.384 with an 84 OPS+ and grounded into 20 double plays. I don’t care if he’s a shortstop, those are still bad numbers.

This signing is quite a raise for Peralta’s payroll. He received $6 million in 2013, and now is getting $13 million? After being suspended for steroids? That just seems unfair. And players in the MLB are taking notice.

Brad Ziegler, a submarine pitcher for the Diamondbacks, tweeted “It pays to cheat… Thanks, owners, for encouraging PED use” on Peralta’s signing. David Aardsma, a reliever for the Mets, tweeted “Apparently getting suspended for PED’s means you get a raise. What’s stopping anyone from doing it? #weneedtomakeachange”

It’s a very interesting argument, and I agree with them. I don’t think they should be as mad in the long run, however. The Cardinals will have Peralta until he is 36 now, meaning his prime days are much over. They might regret this one, unless Peralta can help them win a championship, which can be likely with such a talented team.

A $7 million raise, though? Come on, man.

The free agency has not stopped there, though. Brian McCann, arguably the best catcher in the free agency market, is heading to the New York Yankees.

McCann and the Yanks agree to a five-year, $85 million deal with a vesting option. McCann, who will turn 30 in February, spent his first nine MLB seasons with the Atlanta Braves, being a seven-time all-star and winning five Silver Slugger Awards. He is your next Mike Piazza in the National League (though Piazza is better).

Lately, his offensive numbers haven’t been very impressive, however. The past two seasons, he’s batted a combined .242/.316/.426 with 20 homers each year and a combined 3.0 WAR. His WASP in 2013 was 0.606. His defensive capabilities have always been ok, but he’s never won a Gold Glove Award.

McCann has put up quality numbers in his career, but he needs a fresh start. Switching to the American League might help a lot. The Yankees are making a pretty good move here. We all know that they have the money, but will it bring them back to the playoffs?


Just signing McCann won’t win the division. But it is a start. With a 5-year deal, McCann can vest in the catcher’s role or switch to DH if his knees start bothering him. The Yankees have struggled in finding their next catcher, and they might have found their answer. Despite McCann’s ok offensive numbers, it sure beats the .213/.289/.298 slash line that Yankees catchers put up in 2013.

Will he be the Yankees’ next Jorge Posada? Maybe- we’ll just have to see.

Those have been the two biggest acquisitions in the free agency lately. However, two other acquisitions have gone unnoticed. Dan Haren has reportedly signed a 1-year, $10 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, sources say. Haren, 33, went 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA last year, and was on my list for pitchers that will surprise you for the 2014 season.


The Angels are also adding more quality, this time to their relief system. They have signed side-arm reliever Joe Smith with a three-year, $15 million contract, pending a physical. Smith has been a very effective and durable reliever lately. In the past three years, he’s put up a 2.42 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP while averaging 71 appearances for the Cleveland Indians.

Adding Smith to an already pretty good bullpen shows some good signs for the Angels. Now all they need is better starting pitching. Angels fans, pray that Jered Weaver is healthy.

The free agency is starting to get real good. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

Saturday, November 23, 2013

The Right Decision: Freese and Bourjos Trade



Who needs free agency when you have trades? That’s what this offseason has been so far. After a HUGE trade that sent Prince Fielder to the Rangers and Ian Kinsler to the Tigers, the Angels and the Cardinals wanted to take a dive in the talks.




3rd baseman David Freese of the St. Louis Cardinals will be joining former teammate Albert Pujols in Anaheim, and the Cardinals receive young outfielder Peter Bourjos. Two prospects were also traded, as Fernando Salas will go to the Angels for Randal Grichuk. Grichuk is now the Cardinals’ number 11 prospect, according to MLB.com, and Salas is unranked in the Angels’ organization.



So why? Who made the right decision? David Freese put on a .262/.340/.381 batting line, which is much lower than his combined .295/.363/.457 in 2011 and 2012. Also remember when David Freese was the hero in the postseason in 2011 for the Cards? That deemed not to be the case anymore, as he batted a mere .158 in the World Series this time.


Peter Bourjos has been on and off as well. He also had an amazing year in 2011, batting .271/.327/.438 with 11 triples, 12 homers, 43 RBI’s, and a 5.1 WAR. Since then, he has not put up as good of stats, but has been a consistent defensive centerfielder.


 

This is why I think the Cardinals made the right decision. They have lots of options with the infield, as Matt Carpenter, Pete Kozma, and prospect Kolten Wong can all play 2B, SS, or 3B. As Wong matures, he will replace Carpenter at second base, and Carpenter can go to 3B. They also are losing outfielder Carlos Beltran to free agency. By getting Bourjos, they now have a new, young, and very talented outfielder to replace the veteran. 



David Freese is 30 years old, and his stats have shown some decline. Even with the good 2011 and 2012 years, he still has put up only a 6.0 WAR in five years in the big leagues. Will he always be remembered in that 2011 World Series? Yes. But the past is the past. It’s time for Freese to get a fresh start.

Sometimes players just need a new team to go with, especially changing from the NL to AL, or vice versa. However, when you look at the players over the age of 30 going to the Angels recently, and you find that their stats have significantly declines.

Peter Bourjos is younger, cheaper, and arguably a better player than Freese. Plus, they got a higher ranked prospect too add to their great farm system. Good move by the NL Champs. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Big Trades! Free Agents! Retirement! Oh My!



Let’s take a break from free agency for just a sec. Because we just witnessed the biggest trade since the Boston-Dodger trade in 2012, and the biggest offseason trade in a while. 



Prince Fielder was traded to the Texas Rangers last night for 2B Ian Kinsler. It’s been noted for a while that the Rangers would trade one of their middle infielders, as they had to get rid of one of the three. It looks like Elvis Andrus and prospect Jurickson Profar will stay with the Rangers.


The Rangers just added a five time all-star, the 2007 NL Hank Aaron Award, and a two-time Home Run Derby Hitter (if that matters) to their ballclub. They did have to trade Kinsler, who has been one of the best 2B over the years, but it could turnout for the best.


Fielder, 29, batted .279/.362/.457 with 25 home runs and 106 RBI’s in 2013. Though those are still ok numbers, they are much down from previous years (he batted .313/.412/.528 with 30 homers and 108 RBI’s last year). A great part about Fielder that goes unnoticed is that despite being a very large man, he never misses a game, and you can see consistent play throughout the season with him.

Kinsler, 31, batted .277/.344/.413 with 13 homers and 72 RBI’s in 2013, and, though has never won a gold glove, is a very good defensive player. In 2011, Kinsler had a 7.0 WAR.

So why the trade? It actually makes sense for both teams. Like I said before, the Rangers had a surplus of middle infielders, and there was lots of talks of them trading one of their players. I didn’t expect Kinsler though; Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar both play SS, so I thought they’d trade Andrus and see how the young Profar would turn out.

For the Tigers, one’s got to notice the downplay of Prince Fielder, especially during the playoffs this year. They don’t have much in infield prospects, but they do have one big player that could take his role: Miguel Cabrera. Remember: Miggy was not only hurt towards the end of the 2013 season, but he also played terrible defense at third base. If they move him to first base, he might be able to stay healthy and play better defense.

For the Rangers, usual first baseman Mitch Moreland could serve more roles, such as the outfield. Moreland has also lost some of his offensive capability, as he batted just .232 in 2013.  They’ve also expressed interest in slugger Brian McCann in the free agency, so they are still considering adding more power to the ballclub.
 
Texas will also receive $30 million for Detroit. Fielder has a much longer and extensive contract than Kinsler, so that makes sense.

I think this is a good move by both teams. Detroit loses some power, but they gain a very good second baseman. The Rangers gain a huge target at first base, and add a power to the lineup that was lost since losing Josh Hamilton, A.J. Pierzynski, etc.

There’s going to be more on this trade later most likely, but that’s the main idea of it now. Man, now the offseason is getting exciting!

Back to free agency. Speaking of the Rangers, they just lost their veteran outfielder, David Murphy. Sources have confirmed that Murphy will be heading to the Cleveland Indians next season. Murphy, 31, batted .304/.380/.479 in 2012, but that dropped significantly in 2013, batting just .220/.282/.374.

The best part of this story is how the word got out. Murphy’s young daughter spent Tuesday telling everyone at her daycare that her father “is going to be an Indian.” When Murphy came to pick her up, he confirmed the rumor to her teachers. 


Props to Jamie Kelly, who broke the news out on Twitter. What a great story; now the baseball offseason is getting exciting!
 


Some big news in the retirement field as well. Chris Carpenter has announced his retirement from the St. Louis Cardinals after a 15-year career. Carpenter has only pitched three times in the past two years because of a boatload of injuries. He won the 2005 NL Cy Young Award and the 2009 Comeback Player of the Year Award. 


Carpenter, 38, played his entire career with Toronto and St. Louis. He was never that good in Toronto, and did not play in 2003, but pitched magically from 2004-06 before being set with injuries again in ’07 and ’08.

Carpenter was a great pitcher for the Cardinals, and a fan favorite. He will be missed in St. Louis.


 Another veteran, Mark DeRosa, announced his retirement yesterday. DeRosa was barely a starter throughout the years, and played on eight different teams. His best years came in ’07 and ’08, when he batted .289/.373/.451 in 298 games with the Chicago Cubs. He came into Toronto this year as a veteran to teach the young guys, but turned out to be a lot more.



I’ve always loved watching DeRosa play ball, and he’ll be missed. He wasn’t anything special, but he played in sixteen years in the big leagues. That’s something to be proud about.

Also, watch out for the top prospects in baseball. The Arizona Fall League just finished, and there are a lot of names to look out for. The Twins’ Byron Buxton and the Cubs’ Kris Bryant led the top 20 AFL players this year. Buxton, the number one prospect according to mlb.com, shows a lot of plus speed and great slugging. Bryant, the 4th best prospect in the Cubs system, was named the AFL MVP Award, and shows legitimate power that will put him in the big leagues soon.

Lots of stuff mentioned today, and a lot of it will pan out greatly in the future. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd