Sabermetric Statistic- Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP)

Hello everyone. I just watched Brittney Griner dunk TWICE in one game. Damn. But unfortunately this blog is not about basketball, so let’s move on!

Today’s Tuesday, so it’s a sabermetric statistic day! If you missed my blog on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last week, you can scroll down and find information about that there.

Here’s another important sabermetric that’s growing in popularity called Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). BABIP measures how many of a batter’s balls that go in play are for hits. BABIP works both for hitters and pitchers. It’s a good way to determine how a player is doing when you negate strikeouts, walks (though that does not count as an official at bat) home runs, and other random occurrences. A consistent high or low BABIP is really hard to maintain. The average BABIP is around .290 to .310, but if you see anyone extremely high or low, then it’s most likely going to regress towards the mean eventually. 

Here is the main equation for BABIP. Don’t worry, it’s not as painful as WAR was.

Where H his hits, HR is home runs, AB is At bats, K is strikeouts, HR is homeruns, and SF is sacrifice flies. Note how homeruns and strikeouts are being subtracted to indicate that they’re not being included. Sacrifice Flies are counted as outs. 

So obviously a higher BABIP is better, but there are things can make BABIP sort of skewed. For example, a person who has a lot of walks will have less At Bats because walks do not count as an at bat, therefore lowering the denominator. Thus if you can find a player who can put the ball in play, doesn’t strike out much, and walks a lot, then you’re in luck.

Greg Vaughn had a high BABIP, even though his career batting average was .242, and never had a season batting above .300. This was because he hit a lot of home runs, but also struck out a lot. Thus so many at bats were cancelled out so the number of at bats that he had where a ball went into play was slim. Like I said, sometimes it can be skewed.

BABIP can also be for someone like Ichiro too. Ichiro has a career .357 BABIP. This is because Ichiro hits only for contact, and has speed. So someone like him and Kenny Lofton can make the game change with their high averages. 

Line drives are more likely to go for base hits, and ground balls are more likely to go for hits than fly balls. Thus, a person who hits for contact and can just get it over the infield can make a big impact.

Having a high BABIP can determine how likely a successful hit and run will occur, but can also see how likely a person is to ground into a double play. However, there are three main things that attribute to BABIP.

Defense: Obviously if a line drive is hit to a guy like Darwin Barney, he’s much more likely to make a great play than Dan Uggla. Batters can’t control who’s on second or what’s on third (see what I did there?), but eventually they will play all of these different types of teams and defenses so that, as I said before, the averages should regress towards the mean. People like David Ortiz might have a low BABIP however because of a shift that’s on them.

Improvement: Hopefully a person improves their play as the season progresses. Even if it doesn’t, their talent should change somehow. At some points a batter can be on fire, but other times a person can be colder than ice. Or a pitcher can adjust to a weakness that a batter has, and the batter starts making less solid contact, thus getting fewer hits.

Luck: Yes, luck. Sometimes Scott Rolen can’t make a play, or those damn bloop hits over the first baseman fall. Or sometimes Alfonso Soriano can make a diving catch. Pitching wise, sometimes a person may just get a piece on Aroldis Chapman’s 100 mph pitch and have it go just down the 3^rd base line. Things like these can happen, but there shouldn’t be so many so that it would eventually skew a person’s BABIP stat.

Look for BABIP on guys who strike out little, or can just put the bat on the ball. It can be a big stat that takes advantage of players in the playoffs. After all, there is a strong correlation with team BABIP and their win percentage. Thanks for checking out this sabermetric stat, and I’ll see you tomorrow with my next potential player. Last week is was Paul Goldschmidt, who is batting like an MVP. Find out tomorrow who my next player will be.

-Evan Boyd

“Let's try to find ten good things to say about Albert Belle:
10. So far as we know, he's never killed anyone.
9. He is handsome, and built like a God.
8. He played every game.
7. He has never appeared on the Jerry Springer Show.
6. He was an underrated base runner who was rarely caught stealing.
5. He hasn't been arrested in several years.
4. He is very bright.
3. He works hard.
2. He has never spoken favorably about Adolf Hitler, Saddam Hussein, or any other foreign madman.
1. The man could hit.”

-Bill James