A long time ago, I talked about
Wins Above Replacement on this blog. I often refer back to it, but shorten it
to WAR. If you don’t remember what WAR is, here’s a brief definition. Wins
Above Replacement is a sabermetric used to summarize a player’s total
contributions to their team in one statistic, adding offense, base running, and
defensive value all together. Offensive players and Pitchers have different
ways to calculate WAR, and different websites calculate it in a different way,
but the results are relatively the same. An average full time position player
will have a WAR of 2-3. A solid starter, to say. Mark Ellis, the second baseman
for the Dodgers, has a 2.6 WAR right now, and has played a solid role for Los
Angeles.
If you ever see anyone with a WAR
in the negatives, don’t trust them for anything. In fact, if you were the
coach, you should send that player down to AAA, especially come this time of
the season and you want to see how other players do. The worst WAR I’ve personally
seen is a -2.0 from Mike Jacobs in 2008. Jacobs hit 32 homers that year, but
batted .247/.299/.514 for a first baseman, and was literally the worst fielder
ever (he had a defensive WAR of -3.2 that year, according to
Baseball-Reference.com). It just goes to show you that hitting home runs isn’t
everything. If you find someone worse than -2.0, please tell me, I’d love to
see it.
I mentioned that a WAR of 2-3 is a
solid starter. Of course, as the WAR goes up, the better the player is.
According to FanGraphs, a WAR of 6+ is considered MVP worthy, but according to
Baseball-Reference, a WAR of 8+ is MVP worthy. I’m going to be a median and say
that a WAR of 7+ is MVP worthy.
Right now that leaves us with only
two players with a WAR of 7 or more. There’s Andrew McCutchen, who just gets by
with a WAR of 7, and Mike Trout, who’s the favorite of every statistician.
Trout has a WAR of 8.2, and is considered the best all-around player in
baseball. If you define MVP as “Most Valuable Player” (WHICH IS WHAT IT LITERALLY STANDS FOR), then Trout would easily be
MVP because of his WAR and his ability to play all around.
Trout will most likely not win theMVP award this year. Why? Let’s refer back to last year and why Trout didn’t win. Last year, Trout had a 10.9 WAR, which is absurd! The last time an offensive player had a WAR above 10 was Barry Bonds (Sammy Sosa had one in 2001 too). Miguel Cabrera, however, won the Triple Crown award, having the highest batting average, the most home runs, and the most RBI’s in the American League. He, unlike Trout, was also on a playoff contending team, and won the MVP award in a landslide.
Notice how the two favorites for
MVP in both leagues are not Trout or McCutchen. Cabrera is the favorite in the
AL, and Clayton Kershaw is it for the NL. Cabrera makes sense this year. He’s
still close with a 6.9 WAR, but actually has an 8.6 offensive WAR. Here are his
numbers this year (league leading in bold):
Cabrera: .358/.449/.681, 1.130 OPS, 200 OPS+, 329 Total Bases, 43 homers, 130 RBI’s, 95 runs, 6.9 WAR.
And, for the sake of it, let’s look
at Mike Trout:
Trout: .335/.432/.576, 1.008 OPS,
183 OPS+, 292 Total Bases, 23 homers, 82 RBI’s, 95 runs, 8.2 WAR.
Cabrera dominates the offensive
categories. But Trout also walks more, and has 31 stolen bases. To me, it’s a
coin flip on who should win MVP. I would probably give it to Cabrera because he
is on a playoff contending team, and he might win the Triple Crown with even
better stats than last year, but Trout is still a high contender.
Clayton Kershaw and Andrew
McCutchen are probably the top two contenders for MVP right now, but Carlos
Gomez, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yadier Molina should also be included into the
group. Here’s a look at the top 10 batters in Wins Above Replacement:
1.
Mike Trout (Angels)- 8.2 WAR
2.
Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)- 7.0 WAR
3.
Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)- 6.9 WAR
4.
Carlos Gomez (Brewers)- 6.6 WAR
5.
Robinson Cano (Yankees)- 6.4 WAR
6.
Manny Machado (Orioles)-6.3 WAR
7.
Chris Davis (Orioles)- 6.1 WAR
8.
Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks)- 5.9 WAR
9.
Josh Donaldson (Athletics)- 5.8 WAR
10.
Shane Victorino (Red Sox)- 5.7 WAR
Note that for guys like Carlos
Gomez and Manny Machado, much of their WAR stat actually is because of their
superb defensive abilities. Andrelton Simmons, who has a 5.5 WAR, is also on
that list for pure defense. Gomez has a 3.3 defensive WAR, Machado has a 3.7
dWAR, and Simmons has an absurd 4.9 dWAR. It’s much harder to get a dWAR up
high (2.0 or better is Gold Glove worthy), so getting it up to 4.9 might just
be one of the best ever.
Last year, the highest dWAR was Cubs second baseman
Darwin Barney (3.6 dWAR).
How Shane Victorino is on that
list, I have no idea. Robinson Cano is also kind of surprising too. Remember
that he will be the top free agent this offseason, as shown by his WAR. I
personally would like to see Paul Goldschmidt win the MVP award, but I don’t
think it will happen.
Let’s look at pitching. Here are
the top 10 batters in Wins Above Replacement:
1.
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)- 6.8 WAR
2.
Chris Sale (White Sox)- 6.2 WAR
3.
Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies)- 5.9 WAR
4.
Max Scherzer (Tigers)- 5.8 WAR
5.
Jose Fernandez (Marlins)- 5.5 WAR
6.
Matt Harvey (Mets)- 5.4 WAR
7.
Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners)- 5.4 WAR
8.
Felix Hernandez (Mariners)- 5.1 WAR
9.
Anibal Sanchez (Tigers)-5.1 WAR
10.
Cliff Lee (Phillies)-5.0 WAR
Only three of these players,
Chacin, Hernandez, and Lee, have ERA’s over 3, but all have ERA’s lower than
3.10. Kershaw is the only one with an ERA under 2. Notice that Chris Sale is
the second best pitcher in terms of WAR, even though he’s 10-12. That goes to
show you that records do not mean much as you may think. The top three
relievers in terms of WAR are Craig Kimbrel (3.2 WAR), Rex Brothers (3.1 WAR),
and my man Koji Uehara (3.0 WAR).
This WAR is getting serious.
Hopefully it turns out for the best. I’ll continue updating about the WAR when
I can. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com
for any questions/comments/concerns.
-Evan Boyd
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