Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Mike Trout vs Miguel Cabrera....again



Last September, the American League had one of the toughest questions to answer: Who would be MVP? Miguel Cabrera was dominating the regular stats, and could see that Triple Crown finally come back to baseball. But then a rookie named Mike Trout from Anaheim came out of nowhere and was wowed by his sabermetric statistics. 


Here were the stats from last year (bold indicates league leader, WAR according to BaseballReference):

Miguel Cabrera: .330/.393/.606, 44 home runs, 139 RBI’s, 205 hits, 7.3 WAR, 29 years old in 2012.

Mike Trout: .326/.399/.564, 129 runs, 30 homers, 83 RBI’s, 49 steals, 169 OPS+, 10.9 WAR, 20 years old in 2012.


Both were all-stars and won the silver slugger award. Cabrera won the MVP, while Trout won the Rookie of the Year. Both votes weren’t even close. 

If I had to pick who should’ve won MVP, I probably would’ve gone Trout. At first I said Cabrera no doubt, particularly because he won the Triple Crown, and nobody did that since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 (he would win the MVP, and had a 12.4 WAR). But looking more into it, I realized that his stats were just ok. He broke his career high in home runs and RBI’s, granted. He also had the most hits in his career in a single season. He batted .330, but his career high is .344. He also walked much less than in his usual years. He only had a .393 OBP, which is usually good, but his career average is .399. Last year he walked 66 times. This year he has walked 65 times. On average, he walks 78 times per year. 

Cabrera also grounded into 28 double plays, the most in the AL. His defense has never been superb either, having a career -11.3 dWAR in his 11 year career. In fact, he probably had a better year the year before, where he batted .344/.448/.586 with a 7.6 WAR. 

Mike Trout has done the little things better than Cabrera. He has plenty of speed, which helps a lot, and grounded into only seven double plays last season. He takes much more pitches than Cabrera, 2077 this year compared to Cabrera’s 1672. This has allowed Trout to walk more or find his perfect pitch to hit. He leads the AL with 67 walks this year, and had exactly 67 last year. His defense is much better, making a robbed home run look easy. Last year he had a 2.1 dWAR, but this year it actually is a mediocre -1.4. This might be because he can catch home runs with ease, but he doesn’t have the best arm throwing at home. He has yet to make an assist this year, or a double play. He can play any outfield position, which is good. 


Also remember that Trout is the fifth youngest player in the MLB, he can still improve. Cabrera is 30, but is actually playing the best he’s ever played. 

They do have some of the same stats, too. Both walk at about the same rate. Trout has 67 walks and Cabrera has 65. Trout’s BABIP is .371 this year, while Cabrera’s is .372. They are tied in runs at 79. Trout leads the AL with 143 hits, and Cabrera has 141. These stats sometimes can determine an MVP, but this time, we can’t. On to the other stats!


This year, Cabrera’s WAR is 6.1, while Trout’s is 6.0. Right now, if MVP talking was put to the table, I would say it’s a tie. I honestly believe that it could go either way. If I had to pick somebody to win it, I would probably say Cabrera. He has to work much harder to win the Triple Crown the way Chris Davis is hitting, but the fact that Cabrera has already reached 100 RBI’s is phenomenal. He is having a much better season than last year, which many thought was not possible. If I had to pick one to put on “my team,” I would pick Trout, not only because he’s much younger, but because they only pay him $510K. Granted, he will get a raise once his contract expires. 

Both these players are some of the greatest players baseball has ever seen. If they keep it up, both will be in the Hall of Fame. I love watching this race, and I’m glad that this is happening once again.
Happy birthday, Mike Trout.

-Evan Boyd

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