Baltimore Orioles: In or Out?

I talked about the Orioles a long time ago. When I checked on them, they were 31-24, and 3^rd place in the AL East. Nothing much has changed. They are now 70-61, and still in 3^rd place. However, now they are 7.5 games out of Boston, and 4.5 games out of first place.

They still have the same problem than before: pitching. The team acquired Scott Feldman from the Cubs for starter Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop, and Feldman has gone 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA with the Orioles. Unfortunately for them, Arrieta and Strop have been great with Chicago. They also acquired Bud Norris from the Astros, but he’s 3-1 with a 4.91 ERA. Right now they need to get their act together in starting pitching. Chris Tillman and Wi-Yin Chen, however, have done much better since the all-star break. Tillman has been their ace, having a 14-4 record accompanied with a 3.66 ERA. Chen, who’s ERA was in the mid-4’s at the break, now has a 3.77 ERA, and is .500 with a 7-7 record. 

Their bullpen is something to note of as well. They might have some of the best set-up men in the league, having a trio in Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter, and Brian Matusz. O’Day leads them with a 2.40 ERA, and they combine for 52 holds. And of course, they have Jim Johnson, who, though not as dominant as last year, has 40 saves and a 3.51 ERA. They also acquired reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers, and we know what greatness he was able to do. 

But why are they nine games over .500 with a mediocre pitching staff and a moderate bullpen? That leads us to some of the great hitting that Baltimore hasn’t seen since their golden years. It’s all led by Chris Davis, the home run hitter who just clubbed his 47^th last night. Will he club 60 by the end of the year? Probably not. Will MiguelCabrera pass him? That’s for another day. 

Davis has been superb. Not only can he hit for power, but he puts up a .304/.385/.682 batting stance with a 6.5 WAR. Those are really good numbers, especially when you have an MLB best 47 homers. The only problem is that he strikes out a whole lot (158 K’s on the year so far), and is a weak defender. He does have MVP stats, but Miggy and Mike Trout are just better players. 

As for the rest of the offense, they have amazing young talent in Manny Machado. Machado bats .296/.324/.450 with and MLB best 44 doubles, and is one of the best defenders in baseball. Adam Jones is another big name, having both contact and power. Other important starters are Nick Markakis, Nate McLouth, shortstop J.J. Hardy, and catcher Matt Wieters. They have a team .264 batting average (5^th best in MLB) and a .439 slugging percentage (2^nd best).

So here’s the question: Are they in, or are they out?

They’re out.

Sorry Oriole fans, but look at the Angels. You need pitching to win games, and this starting rotation is not enough. Look at every other team that’s in first. They have at least two starters that have phenomenal stuff. Tillman and Chen are good pitchers, but they are not in the Cy Young or playoff talk whatsoever. 

Remember that this is a team who are 7.5 games out from the Red Sox, and 4.5 games out from the Rays (who are leading the wild card).  They need to avoid a sweep tonight against Boston, and still have two more series with them. They have two series vs the Yankees, two with the Blue Jays, and a series vs the Rays. They are 25-27 against their division. 

Let this not be the end of the world, though. When you look at a guy like Manny Machado, you see so much potential. This has been Chris Davis’ best year by far too, and the Baltimore organization hopes that the 27 year old can keep performing like this (note: age 27 is at the peak of a player’s prime years. Being 28 or 29, Davis will still have good stats, but he might not have a year like this again). 

There are some big pitching names in the free agency this year and the next. In two years, David Price is the big free agent. They have the money to go for it, or they can wait for their prospects to grow. Four of their five top prospects are pitchers, according to mlb.com. 

If these prospects are something special, look for the Orioles in to ALCS or even the World Series in the next couple of years. They have some good stuff to look out for.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd