Tigers In - Moneyball Out?

Justin Verlander came into the postseason this year with a 13-12 record and a 3.46 ERA. While that is ok for pitchers, it’s ranked as the second worst year for Verlander. It’s no match to his Cy Young AND MVP season in 2011, where he went 24-5 (.828 win %) with a 2.40 ERA, 250 K’s and an 8.4 WAR. Last year, he was just as good, and was the runner up for the MVP. So what happened?

Sometimes it’s too tough to tell. You can argue age, as he’s now 30 years old, or you can argue that he just had a lack of run support and his breaking ball wasn’t breaking. Those are reasonable arguments, and are all probably correct.

Verlander is showing that he does not care about that record whatsoever. He knows how it’s all about the postseason, and, since 2011, he has, arguably, been the best pitcher in postseason history since Curt Schilling. He is 7-4 with a 3.48 ERA in his career postseason, which includes last night’s performance, where he went eight shutout innings, giving up three hits and striking out eleven, and had a no hitter going until the 7^th inning. 

It wasn’t anything out of the blue. In Game 2, where he played Sonny Gray for the first time, Verlander went eight innings again, striking out 11, and having no runs. He did the EXACT same thing as before! That’s why for the third straight season, the Tigers are moving on to the ALCS. They look to go to their 2^nd world series in a row, too. 

If they do manage to make the World Series, hopefully Verlander does not pitch like he did last year. He got rocked in Game 1, giving up 5 runs in only four innings, and gave up two homers to Pablo Sandoval. He is 0-3 with about a 7 ERA in the World Series.

Last night was a great show. Sonny Gray, the starter for the A’s in Game 2 and Game 5, had a pretty solid start, and only allowed one ball to really get away from him. That ball, unfortunately, marked the end of the road for the A’s. And who else would have gotten it? Miguel Cabrera. As they were pitching outside to him the entire series, Gray decides that he can try to get him with a high fastball, and Cabrera said no. With just a flick of the bat, Cabrera jacks it out to left field. It was gone the moment he hit it. He can hit the ball out in any place.

Another run scored later, and the A’s threatened in the 9^th off closer Joaquin Benoit, and that was it. The Tigers advance to the ALCS. Congrats to the Tigers and Tiger fans.

Here we bring up an interesting question relating not to the Tigers, but to the A’s. Does the Moneyball system work? Since implementing it in 2002, Billy Beane has managed his club to division titles, but has yet to make a World Series. So what’s up? Does Moneyball only work in the regular season and not the playoffs?

It’s a very interesting question. I would personally say no, and that Moneyball works/doesn’t work in general, not because of season/postseason. If you have seen the Hollywood production Moneyball, with Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill (note: Jonah Hill’s role in Moneyball is basically why I’m doing this blog. That’s what I want to be), you know that it’s a well-made movie and you just want to become an A’s fan. 

But do you know the whole story behind it? Yes, the A’s lost MVP Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Jason Isringhausen, and they did have to replace them with guys like Chad Bradford and Scott Hatteberg, and they did win 20-games in a row, but there’s more to it. There is no mention of the MVP that year, Miguel Tejada, who played for the A’s. There’s also no mention of their pitching rotation, which included guys like Barry Zito and Mark Mulder, both at their prime. They had arguably the best pitching staff in baseball since the Johnson/Schilling era and the Braves’ Greg Maddux/John Smoltz/Tom Glavine era. 

What I’m saying is, the 2002 A’s team was not a Moneyball team. They were just a good, young talented team. If you look at the past two years for the A’s, however, that’s a Moneyball team. They brought back guys like Coco Crisp and Bartolo Colon to play, and they worked.

Billy Beane’s motto is that they have to “get on base,” meaning they have to have a high OBP. That works. OBP is a great stat to rely on. But does it work in the playoffs?

It does work, but here’s the reason why it hasn’t been in the past few years. In the ALDS, the A’s only have five games to work with, and it’s all about a good pitching matchup. Pitching is much more important in the playoffs, and while getting on base is good too, you need that strong pitcher.

That’s why the Tigers have beaten them the past two years, both in five games. They have Justin Verlander to pitch that Game 5.

So it’s not a matter of why Moneyball doesn’t work, it’s a matter of how the other team just has a better starter in that Game 5. If it was a 7-game series, things would be much different.

If you try to apply the Los Angeles Dodger or New York Yankee philosophy to the 2012 and 2013 Oakland Athletics, they would not make it into the playoffs. In fact, they’d probably finish around where the Seattle Mariners did. The fact that Beane can get a team like that into the playoffs itself is incredible. 

So don’t worry A’s fans, it’s not your team’s fault, it’s Verlander’s fault for being too good.

While Oakland packs their bags to go home, we now look at the ALCS. It’s going to be a fantastic matchup between Detroit and the Boston Red Sox. I had the Cardinals and Tigers originally in the World Series, but I really like the Red Sox’s chances right now. It’ll be a matchup between two great hitting clubs vs. solid pitching.

Hitting statistically, they’re even. The Tigers have those big valued hitters like Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Victor Martinez, and Torii Hunter, veterans that, besides Hunter, are known for their long ball. The Red Sox, however, have solid contact hitting combined with speed. They also have their veteran power hitters like David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, and Johnny Gomes, but they have the advantage in speed with Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino. Overall, it’ll probably be high scoring games, especially when playing at Fenway.

Pitching is just as even too. With the acquisition of Jake Peavy in the middle of the season, the Red Sox now have guys to go with that can also be in the relief too, like Ryan Dempster. While Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are arguably a better 1-2 duo than Jon Lester and John Lackey, they’re pretty even the rest of the way. The Game 3 matchup that will most likely be Red Sox’s Clay Buchholz vs Tigers’ Anibal Sanchez might just be the best matchup to look out for.

Relieving wise, the Red Sox have a strong advantage. The way Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Craig Breslow have been working in relief is much stronger than what the Tigers have. Both teams have had their struggles in the season with relief, but the Red Sox have fixed those problems, and the Tigers still have yet to find an adequate set-up man. If their starters can go 8 innings like Verlander, there won’t be a problem for that though.

This series won’t be one-decided. I think I’m going to go with the Red Sox in seven games. I believe it will be a much better series than the Cardinals-Dodgers series. But that one will be just as good, and that one kicks off tonight at 7 PM CT. It is something that you do not want to miss! Catch my insight on that series here.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd