Trade Watch: Matt Garza

The Trade Deadline is approaching, so let’s take a break from sabermetrics and look at who’s going to get traded. The number 1 pitcher out there that will most likely be traded is Chicago Cubs pitcher Matt Garza.

 

Matt Garza is a 29 year old that’s played for the Twins, Rays, and Cubs. He has a career 3.84 ERA, and a 7.6 career K/9 ratio. This year he was sidelined at the beginning of the season, but bounced back from injury and is now 3-1 with a 3.83 ERA. He uses a fastball and a slider mostly, with the fastball ranging in the lower 90’s and slider in mid-80’s. 

Currently his salary is $10.25 million. Teams that match up well with Garza and the Cubs are the Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Colorado Rockies. Side note: the Dodgers are actually closing on a trade with the Cubs for Carlos Marmol, who has struggled big this year, including blowing the save and the win giving up 4 runs in a depressing loss to the Mets.

I can see the Rangers and the Padres being big spenders on Garza. Last year the Rangers acquired pitcher Ryan Dempster and catcher Geovanny Soto from the Cubs for some minor league prospects. With Theo Epstein at the helm, the Cubs will make a lot of trades with the Rangers now and in a few years, just like before. The Padres’ former GM, Jed Hoyer, is now the GM for the Cubs. They’ve also done deals before, like when the Padres traded star Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs.

I don’t see the Indians or the Dodgers getting Garza. The last time the Indians acquired a big pitcher like this was Ubaldo Jimenez, who, since an incredible year with the Rockies in ’08, has not had a single year with an ERA under 4. The Dodgers have an ok farm system, but there are plenty more places that the Cubs could get from them.

The Baltimore Orioles should really try to budge their way in getting Garza. Garza is possibly the best starter on the trade block, and the Orioles have the worst pitching in the AL. They have a team 4.43 ERA, and only 4 pitchers have started 10 or more games. Especially with closer Jim Johnson on the DL, it’s hard for their starters to try and stay in for one more inning. It’d be a good idea to get Garza, but I don’t think they’re interested. 

The Cubs’ front office is looking for long term pitching that are close to being big leaguers or are major league ready. They’ll get a lot out of Garza, but are also considering trading pitcher Scott Feldman and Alfonso Soriano. Like I said before, they could get something by trading Carlos Marmol as well, who is on a 10-day period to trade or give him an unconditional release. 

Like I said yesterday in the Power Rankings, the Cubs will be the spotlight this month in trading, so stick up with my blog and I’ll have total coverage with it. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com with any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd