Monday, July 8, 2013

All-Star Wrap Up: Who's in, Who's Out, and Who They Will Regret Not Having



The All-Star game is upon us. Before we get into anything, let’s look at who got in.

For the AL League:

C Joe Mauer (Twins)
1B Chris Davis (Orioles)
2B Robinson Cano (Yankees)
SS J.J. Hardy (Orioles)
3B Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
OF Mike Trout (Angels)
OF Adam Jones (Orioles)
OF Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)
DH David Ortiz (Red Sox)

Pitchers:
Max Scherzer, Tigers
Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
Brett Cecil, Blue Jays
Justin Verlander, Tigers
Justin Masterson, Indians
Chris Sale, White Sox
Mariano Rivera, Yankees
Bartolo Colon, Athletics
Yu Darvish, Rangers
Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
Jesse Crain, White Sox
Joe Nathan, Rangers
Glen Perkins, Twins

Reserves:
1B Prince Fielder, Tigers
OF Torii Hunter, Tigers
SS Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
OF Nelson Cruz, Rangers
UTIL Ben Zobrist, Rays
C Jason Castro, Astros
1B Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
OF Alex Gordon, Royals
2B Jason Kipnis, Indians
3B Manny Machado, Orioles
C Salvador Perez, Royals

NL Starters:
C Yadier Molina, Cardinals
1B Joey Votto, Reds
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
3B David Wright, Mets
OF Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
OF Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
OF Bryce Harper, Nationals

Pitchers:
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Patrick Corbin, D-Backs
Matt Harvey, Mets
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
Jason Grilli, Pirates
Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals
Craig Kimbrel, Braves
Aroldis Chapman, Reds
Travis Wood, Cubs
Jose Fernandez, Marlins
Cliff Lee, Phillies
Jeff Locke, Pirates
Madison Bumgarner, Giants

Reserves:
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
OF Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
C Buster Posey, Giants
3B Pedro Alvarez, Pirates
OF Domonic Brown, Phillies
SS Evereth Cabrera, Padres
2B Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
1B Allen Craig, Cardinals
1B Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs
OF Carlos Gomez, Brewers
SS Jean Segura, Brewers
2B Marco Scutaro, Giants

Jeez that was a pain to type. So as you know, the people vote on who to start the all-star game. Let’s see if statistically they picked the right guys. If you look at the highest Wins Above Replacement in their respective positions and divisions, here’s what the line-ups should be. I’m using WAR to determine it because I am a stats guy and it’s the most accurate stat in determining performance.

American League Starters:
C Josh Donaldson, Athletics, WAR  4.2
1B: Chris Davis, Baltimore, WAR 4.3
2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox, WAR 4.4 (Note: Robinson Cano just missed with a WAR of 4.3)
3B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, WAR 5.1
SS  Jhonny Peralta, Tigers, WAR 2.4
OF Mike Trout, Angels, WAR 3.9
OF Jose Bautista, Blue Jays, WAR 3.4
OF Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox, war 3.1
If you pick anyone as a DH, pick 3B/DH Manny Machado, Orioles, WAR 4.9
Starting Pitcher: Chris Sale, White Sox, WAR 4.5

How about the NL?
C Yadier Molina, Cardinals, WAR 3.7
1B Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs, WAR 4.5
2B Matt Carpenter, Cardinals, WAR 3.8
3B David Wright, Mets, WAR 4.7
For SS, it would be Troy Tulowitzki, but he’s injured, so then it’d be Andrelton Simmons for the Braves. His WAR is 3.1.
OF Carlos Gomez, Brewers, WAR 5.4
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates, WAR 4.5
OF Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies, WAR 4.3.
Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, WAR 5.7

It seems like everyone except for Ellsbury and Donaldson is making the game anyways. Right now you can vote for the last man in on mlb.com for both leagues. I picked Red Sox pitcher Koji Uehara (my favorite) for the AL, and Braves IF Freddie Freeman for the NL. Whatever you do, don’t pick Puig please.
The voting doesn’t really matter considering that starters won’t play the entire game anyways, but it’s still kind of unfair for guys that totally deserved it vs guys that are just popular. For example, Carlos Gomez totally deserves the OF starter over Bryce Harper. Here are their stats:
Gomez: 82 games, bats .312/.353/.559, 20 doubles, 9 triples, 13 homers, 41 RBI’s, 20 steals, 5.4 WAR.
Harper: 51 games, bats .274/.375/.549, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 13 homers, 29 RBI’s, 5 steals, 1.6 WAR.

Sure, you can argue that Harper only played 51 games, so his stats could be better, but you also could argue that he only played 51 games, so why the hell is he even considered playing in the all-star game?
That also leads me to Yasiel Puig. Let’s look at him compared to Freddie Freeman.
Puig: 32 games, bats .409/.437/.677, 8 homers, 19 RBI’s, WAR 2.4
Freeman: 75 games, bats .306/.382/.462, 9 homers, 56 RBI’s, WAR 2.3.

Note the difference in games. If you think that Puig will bat .409 by 75 games, then go ahead and think that. Logically, it’s highly unlikely that he will. I’m not saying that he’s not a good player, in fact he’s an amazing player, but believe the statistics. Puig has played just over a month, right? What about Jason Kipnis, who batted over .400 in the month of June, or even Michael Cuddyer, who had a 27 game winning streak? Kipnis is batting only .296, while Cuddyer is batting .337. Puig still has a great chance to win awards by the end of the season, but for now, I’d give the all-star role to Freeman.

Another guy that’s not even considered for the last man in is OF Starling Marte for the Pirates. He’s batting .292/.343/.465 with 100 hits and 27 steals, as well as a 4.0 WAR (4th best WAR among OF in the NL). He won’t get in, but they might find that as a mistake in future years. This kid will be a superstar in the next few years. He’s only 24. Plus with a team with as much potential as the Pirates do, they could be incredible with this guy.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com if you think someone else got snubbed from the all-star game.

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