Potential Player 5 29 13- Jean Segura

Hey there, today is Wednesday, May 29^th. This could potentially be my last blog until Saturday, because I have prom tomorrow, then post prom the next two days. I’ll probably be fine for tomorrow, but I’m still trying to find time for Friday. If I miss Friday, just note that two guys that are really hot right now are young and have potential. And hey, what do you know! One of them is my pick this week for potential player! Let’s take a look at the Brewers’ Jean Segura (Note: The other person that I was thinking was Hyun-Jin Ryu).

Jean Segura is a shortstop from the Dominican Republic, and is 23 years old. He debuted for the Angels, but was traded last year to Milwaukee. Last year he played one game for the Angels and struck out twice. They must’ve disliked him that much. At Milwaukee in 2012 he batted .264 in 44 games. I don’t know if he’s up for rookie of the year this year, but man he’s in for the running if he is.

Right now he is batting .365, the best average in the National League. He is also the leader in triples and hits, and also has a .400 OBP and a .569 slugging. Those percentages are higher than teammate Ryan Braun.  That’s pretty good for a shortstop. The last time a shortstop was like that was Hanley Ramirez in his prime, and Miguel Tejada’s 2002 season. When you have a shortstop that can hit for power AND contact, you have something special. He’s on track to have 234 hits, 17 triples, 26 homers, and about 72 RBI’s. For a young shortstop, that isn’t bad at all.  

His Wins Above Replacement is 2.8, which is the 7^th best in the league. If you read my article before on Wins Above Replacement, you may have remembered that a solid starter will have a WAR stat of 2.0 or above. So the fact that he is among players who can make solid starts for this young Brewers club can help a lot. Unfortunately, the Brewer’s pitching staff is horrendous. They’ve lost their last 20 of 25. But no matter! They still have hitters like Segura, Norichika Aoki, and of course, Ryan Braun.

He’s already made 6 errors, but has a .974 fielding percentage. That’s better than last year, but not worthy of a gold glove. He is fast, though. When he gets on base, he is highly likely to steal. He has 14 steals already, and will be on track to have just under 50 by the end of the year. 

Yesterday, Segura went 6 of 7 in their loss against the Twins. All 6 hits were singles, including a single that tied the game in the bottom of the ninth. The last person to have six hits was Adrian Gonzalez, when he was on the Padres in 2009. Once again the kid is showing that he is slowly turning into a star.

Nothing will ever beat his weird performance on April 19^th, which could mark has one of the most memorable moments for Segura. The Brewers were playing the Cubs. In the Bottom of the 8^th, Segura reached 1^st, and then stole second. Ryan Braun walked after him. Segura was caught cheating and was picked off. In the process of the rundown, Braun went to second, so both base runners ended up on second. Braun was tagged and was out, but Segura thought that he was out. He was tagged safely on second, but started walking towards the first base dugout. After realizing what he did, he ran to first and was safe (Note: A person cannot intentionally run back to first, but since this was an accidental mistake, it was allowed). After all of this, he tried stealing second again, and this time was thrown out. Segura stole and got caught stealing second in the same inning. Wow. 

Nevertheless, if Jean Segura keeps it up, he can be a solid player that is consistent throughout his career. He has the hitting like Miguel Tejada, and the longevity of Mark Ellis. He is this week’s potential player.

-Evan Boyd

“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” –Yogi Berra

Sabermetric Statistic- Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP)

Hello everyone. I just watched Brittney Griner dunk TWICE in one game. Damn. But unfortunately this blog is not about basketball, so let’s move on!

Today’s Tuesday, so it’s a sabermetric statistic day! If you missed my blog on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last week, you can scroll down and find information about that there.

Here’s another important sabermetric that’s growing in popularity called Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). BABIP measures how many of a batter’s balls that go in play are for hits. BABIP works both for hitters and pitchers. It’s a good way to determine how a player is doing when you negate strikeouts, walks (though that does not count as an official at bat) home runs, and other random occurrences. A consistent high or low BABIP is really hard to maintain. The average BABIP is around .290 to .310, but if you see anyone extremely high or low, then it’s most likely going to regress towards the mean eventually. 

Here is the main equation for BABIP. Don’t worry, it’s not as painful as WAR was.

Where H his hits, HR is home runs, AB is At bats, K is strikeouts, HR is homeruns, and SF is sacrifice flies. Note how homeruns and strikeouts are being subtracted to indicate that they’re not being included. Sacrifice Flies are counted as outs. 

So obviously a higher BABIP is better, but there are things can make BABIP sort of skewed. For example, a person who has a lot of walks will have less At Bats because walks do not count as an at bat, therefore lowering the denominator. Thus if you can find a player who can put the ball in play, doesn’t strike out much, and walks a lot, then you’re in luck.

Greg Vaughn had a high BABIP, even though his career batting average was .242, and never had a season batting above .300. This was because he hit a lot of home runs, but also struck out a lot. Thus so many at bats were cancelled out so the number of at bats that he had where a ball went into play was slim. Like I said, sometimes it can be skewed.

BABIP can also be for someone like Ichiro too. Ichiro has a career .357 BABIP. This is because Ichiro hits only for contact, and has speed. So someone like him and Kenny Lofton can make the game change with their high averages. 

Line drives are more likely to go for base hits, and ground balls are more likely to go for hits than fly balls. Thus, a person who hits for contact and can just get it over the infield can make a big impact.

Having a high BABIP can determine how likely a successful hit and run will occur, but can also see how likely a person is to ground into a double play. However, there are three main things that attribute to BABIP.

Defense: Obviously if a line drive is hit to a guy like Darwin Barney, he’s much more likely to make a great play than Dan Uggla. Batters can’t control who’s on second or what’s on third (see what I did there?), but eventually they will play all of these different types of teams and defenses so that, as I said before, the averages should regress towards the mean. People like David Ortiz might have a low BABIP however because of a shift that’s on them.

Improvement: Hopefully a person improves their play as the season progresses. Even if it doesn’t, their talent should change somehow. At some points a batter can be on fire, but other times a person can be colder than ice. Or a pitcher can adjust to a weakness that a batter has, and the batter starts making less solid contact, thus getting fewer hits.

Luck: Yes, luck. Sometimes Scott Rolen can’t make a play, or those damn bloop hits over the first baseman fall. Or sometimes Alfonso Soriano can make a diving catch. Pitching wise, sometimes a person may just get a piece on Aroldis Chapman’s 100 mph pitch and have it go just down the 3^rd base line. Things like these can happen, but there shouldn’t be so many so that it would eventually skew a person’s BABIP stat.

Look for BABIP on guys who strike out little, or can just put the bat on the ball. It can be a big stat that takes advantage of players in the playoffs. After all, there is a strong correlation with team BABIP and their win percentage. Thanks for checking out this sabermetric stat, and I’ll see you tomorrow with my next potential player. Last week is was Paul Goldschmidt, who is batting like an MVP. Find out tomorrow who my next player will be.

-Evan Boyd

“Let's try to find ten good things to say about Albert Belle:
10. So far as we know, he's never killed anyone.
9. He is handsome, and built like a God.
8. He played every game.
7. He has never appeared on the Jerry Springer Show.
6. He was an underrated base runner who was rarely caught stealing.
5. He hasn't been arrested in several years.
4. He is very bright.
3. He works hard.
2. He has never spoken favorably about Adolf Hitler, Saddam Hussein, or any other foreign madman.
1. The man could hit.”

-Bill James

A Look Through the Week - 5 27 13

Happy Memorial Day, everybody! Make sure you go out and support your troops not only today, but every day. Remember, even baseball greats like Ted Williams, Stan Musial, and Warren Spahn took years out of their playing career to serve in the military. Stan the Man even won MVP when he came back.

Anyways, today is Monday, so it’s time to take a look at the week ahead.

Today, the MLB will honor Memorial Day at all 15 home ballparks, with a remembrance of troops at a specific time of day or during the game. Players will wear camouflage jerseys and caps from the US Marine Corps to raise funds and awareness for Welcome Back Veterans, an organization designed to give veterans the mental and physical support that they need.

Now with supporting the veterans comes interleague play. Plenty of matchups will be held that you are going to want to watch. 

The AL East leading Yankees will take on the Mets in a New York- New York showdown. 

The Angels will be heading to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. After having a terrible start, watch out for the Angels to make a huge statement in this series. I would not be surprised if they sweep and come out about a few games above .500 after the week. Do I think they can catch up to the Rangers right now? No. But can they make a run against the A’s and a wildcard spot? Yes.

The Orioles and the Nationals will square off in at the capital. These two sort of disappointing teams right now look to gain some level against the guys ahead of them. The way Oriole’s closer Jim Johnson is playing, it’s gonna be tough. I think the Nats will take the series in this one.

The Cardinals will take on the Royals, who are slowly falling out of contention in the AL Central. I smell a sweep, but it starts with potentially the best pitching matchup in baseball. Tonight, aces Adam Wainwright and James Shields will take the mounds for St. Louis and Kansas City.

My personal favorite matchup is Detroit vs Pittsburgh. The Pirates are in third place in the NL Central, yet have a record of 31-19. Miggy is on track to break the RBI record, and Verlander will try to get back on track. This series is really a toss-up, but I think that Detroit will take the series. Francisco Liriano and Verlander will face each other, two pitchers that have both pitched no hitters. Torii Hunter might just hit his 300^th home run as well.

Two veterans Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson will face each other this week in a Braves and Blue Jays showdown. The Blue Jays are overhyped, while the Braves are red hot. I got the Braves taking this one.

The Rangers will take on the D-Backs this week, as Paul Goldschmidt is still tearing up the bat. I’m glad I picked him as my first potential player (see my blog from last Wednesday), because there is talk of him winning the MVP.

The Cubs will host the White Sox in the crosstown classic. Being a Cubs fan and living in Chicago, things can get intense during these times. If the Cubs can start scoring with runners in scoring position (right now are batting .211 with RISP), then they can take this series. If not, the White Sox can try to gain more ground against the Tigers and Indians.

The Giants will play the A’s, who are currently on a 3 game winning streak. I don’t think there will be any special moments in this series, but if the A’s can take the series, they’re one step closer to catching up with the Rangers.

Jonathan Papelbon will make his first appearance at Fenway since he left for Philadelphia, as the Phillies will take on the Red Sox. 

Those are the matchups for this week, now let’s take a look at some other news in baseball.

Ian Kennedy will miss his next start after cutting his finger doing the dishes. That’s almost as embarrassing as Francisco Liriano breaking his arm trying to scare his children, or when Joel Zumaya missed three games in the 2006 playoffs because his throwing wrist and forearm was hurt from playing Guitar Hero. Shit happens, what else can I say?

Red Sox ace and Cy Young contender Clay Buchholz has been scratched from today’s game against the Phillies after feeling discomfort in his right collarbone. Alfredo Aceves will take the mound in his place. 

Pirates outfielder Jose Tabata on the 15 day disabled list with a left oblique strain. Tabata is hitting .272 this season, and really is not a huge contribution to their offense. Jeff Karstens has also been moved from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL.  Though both players haven’t been much to the club, losing someone hurts, so we’ll have to see how the Pirates will recover without them. They will call up Josh Harrison from Triple-A Indianapolis to replace Tabata.

Indians closer Chris Perez has been put on the 15 day DL after right shoulder soreness. If you watched him blow the game against the Red Sox yesterday, you could tell even before he left the game that something was not good. Perez is 2-1 with 6 saves and a 4.32 ERA. Last year, he had a career best 39 saves.

More on prodigy Bryce Harper, of course. He is out for today’s game against the O’s and will most likely be out tomorrow too. Harper has already missed three games from colliding into the wall against the Dodgers. He’s hitting .287 with 12 homers and 23 RBI’s. Speaking of the Nats, catcher Wilson Ramos will miss another four weeks with a left hamstring injury.

Now moving away from injuries, here’s something that caught my eye yesterday and has more attention today. In yesterday’s game between the Reds and the Cubs, Jonny Cueto threw a ball high over David DeJesus’ head, and Cubs pitcher Matt Garza took it as an offense, and called Cueto “immature” after the game. He also said that  “If he wants to say something to me, he knows where my locker is. If he’s got a problem, he can throw at me, and I’ll do the same.”

Reds manager (and former manager of the Cubs) Dusty Baker came out saying that he doesn’t understand why Garza was so P.O.’d about the pitch, saying that Cueto “couldn’t have hit Wild Chamberlain with that pitch.” He took it a step further, saying that the two pitchers should settle the dispute with their fists. What the hell, Baker? That isn’t how it should be done!

Both teams were warned after the pitch. The Cubs would go on to win the game in the 10^th inning, their first win after trailing in the 8^th. I don’t think that there will be a brawl the next time the Reds and the Cubs play, but who knows.

So that’s what’s going on this week. Have any questions, comments, or concerns for me? Please email me a statsbuddy42@gmail.com. I would love any feedback.

Thanks for reading, and happy Memorial Day.

-Evan Boyd

“Let’s play two” –Ernie Banks

Power Rankings: 5 25 13

Hello there! Here are my power rankings through the week of 5/25. I usually would have their rankings from last week and their rankings according to ESPN, but since this is my first week doing this, I’ll just have what ESPN ranked them.

1.      Rangers- 31-17

ESPN Rank: 1

The Rangers have this amazing offense, filled with power, contact, and speed. Yu Darvish has not been as good as how he started out last year, but still posts a 2.84 ERA. Plus, they have little problem with the rest of the West.

2.      Cardinals- 31-16

ESPN Rank: 2

The Cardinals have been battling injuries with their starting rotation, yet they still have the best pitching in the league. Shelby Miller (1.74 ERA) leads the way with Lance Lynn and Adam Wainwright. Their relieving is great too- Edward Mujica was a great pickup last season, and Trevor Rosenthal may be the best set up man in the game.

3.      Yankees- 29-18

ESPN Rank: 4

I give lots of props to the Yankees this year, who were plagued by injuries at the start of the season. Robinson Cano is leading almost every offensive stat, and Mariano Rivera has pitched the best in his career, which I thought was not possible. Yet they are starting to rack of injuries again. Granderson got hurt yesterday, and Kuroda might be out as well. With a team that statistically is not the best, the Yankees could still fall.

4.      Reds- 30-18

ESPN Rank: 3

Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo have the best OBP in the Major Leagues. They also have one of the best pitching staffs right now. They don’t even have Jonny Cueto or Sean Marshall. Yet, guys like Homer Bailey and Mat Latos have made their pitching unstoppable.

5.      Red Sox- 29-20

ESPN Rank: 5

Clay Buchholz could easily win the Cy Young this year if he keeps it up. The real reason why the Red Sox have improved so much is because of two things: Coaching and Pickups. Bobby Valentine sucked as a coach, but now they have John Farrell who knows how to coach. They also picked up guys like Mike Napoli and Koji Uehara in the offseason, big acquisitions that have attributed to their success.

6.      Braves- 28-18

ESPN Rank: 9

Still on top of the East, and could very well be the best all-around team in baseball. At 15-5, their record at home is outstanding. Check out my blog from Thursday to see more on the Braves.

7.      Pirates- 29-19

ESPN Rank: 12

Poor Pirates, they have one of the best records in baseball, and they’re in 3^rd place in their division. Why is the NL Central the best division in baseball right now? It’s all about the pitching. The Pirates too have one of the best pitching staffs in the game, giving up only an amazing low .223 batting average against opponents. They also have a 3.22 team ERA. They need more to their offense, but some guys are still strong. Andrew McCutchen, as always, is killing, hitting over .400 in the past week. Watch out for Starling Marte, he is young but has lots of talent, and may even be my potential player next week. Find out more to see!

8.      Indians- 27-20

ESPN Rank: 7

Terry Francona is bringing hope to a team that has the second longest world series drought. They have a powerful, all around offense, with Mark Reynolds being their big power man. He is still on and off, however, striking out 49 times already. Want someone fun to watch? Look at their catcher, Carlos Santana. He has an OPS of .960, and already has a WAR of 1.6. Let’s see if they can stick up with the Tigers, though. My guess is no.

9.      Tigers- 27-19

ESPN Rank: 6

I’m actually not surprised that Justin Verlander is not pitching as well as he is, but does it really matter? They have Anibal Sanchez with a 2.38 ERA, and a pretty decent bullpen crew to back up the pitchers. The biggest category for them is offense. Miguel Cabrera is having a year better than last year, which I didn’t think was possible. Having Torii Hunter brings a new part of the offense that they didn’t really have before. They have the best Batting Average, On Base Percentage, and have scored a league leading 251 runs. They are my pick for winning the pennant.

10.  Diamondbacks- 27-21

ESPN Rank: 8

Check out my blog from last Wednesday, and you’ll see why first baseman Paul Goldschmidt could be the NL MVP. He has a WAR of 2.8 right now, trailing only pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey. After having a poor season before, Kurt Gibson is coaching the team to more success.

11.  Rockies- 27-21

ESPN Rank: 15

They have great offense and some solid pitching. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are the leaders, with Tulowitzki having a 1.001 OPS and Gonzalez blasting 12 homers. Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin are solid pitchers, but might burn out as the year goes on.

12.  Nationals- 25-23

ESPN Rank: 10

The Nationals have the second worst offense this season, and a pretty disappointing pitching staff. But their pitching staff has been overhyped. Strasburg is still good, same with Gio Gonzalez, but their main pitcher has been Jordan Zimmerman, going 8-1 with a 1.71 ERA. They’ll come back, don’t worry Nats fans.

13.  Giants- 26-22

ESPN Rank: 11

The Giants now have some competition with the D-Back and the Rockies being hot, but they seem to have the best talent to stay strong throughout the entire year. After getting murdered by Toronto and Colorado, they came back to win some games. But things need to change on the road.

14.   A’s- 26-23

ESPN Rank: 17

The A’s still have great talent, and with Billy Beane’s Moneyball efforts, they get on base, which is all the team needs when they are 27^th in batting average. They’re gonna need a burst of wins if they want to catch the Rangers, though.

15.  Orioles- 26-22

ESPN Rank: 13

After starting out really hot, the O’s have struggled lately, going 3-7 in their last 10. They have an amazing offense with Chris Davis and Adam Jones, but boy do they need pitching. 

16.  Rays- 24-23

ESPN Rank: 14

David Price is finally on the DL after having a 5.24 ERA. Without him it’s gonna be tough catching up with the Yankees and the Red Sox. How can they do it though? Have Matt Moore lead the way in pitching, and have James Loney and Evan Longoria bat as well throughout the season. We’ll talk in September.

17.  Angels- 21-27

ESPN Rank: 26

The Angels have won 6 straight after having a very disappointing start. They are very overhyped, I hope you know that. Nevertheless, I still expected them to have an above .500 record. If Mike Trout keeps hitting cycles, then they might have a chance to snag a wild card spot, but right now they’re already 10 games behind a team that cannot stop winning. 

18.  Phillies-  23-25

ESPN Rank: 19

Poor Roy Halladay, the guy just can’t pitch as well as he always have had. Luckily the Phills still have Cliff Lee, but their starting pitching needs some improvement. Watch out for Domonic Brown: He has young potential, and finally has a positive WAR number after 4 years of play. 

19.  White Sox- 22-24

ESPN Rank: 20

The Sox have been hot lately after struggling much, but they’re very inconsistent. After Jake Peavy walked in 2 batters in one inning, who knows what the Sox have up their sleeves to entertain a crowd.

20.   Royals- 21-24

ESPN Rank: 16

Slowly but surely, the Royals are falling out of contention in the Central, just like they always do. 

21.  Blue Jays- 20-28

ESPN Rank: 24

The Jays are starting to realize that baseball isn’t about buying all of these franchise players and hoping that they work out. Look at the Dodgers and the Marlins as an example. R.A. Dickey and Mark Buerhle are certainly not living up to expectations, as they have the worst pitching staff in baseball. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion know how to swing the bat, but that’s about it.

22.  Padres- 21-26

ESPN Rank: 22

The Padres still have a great farm system after trading away some of their top prospects in the past few years, but they still have plenty of all around talent that can lead the way for them in the future. Right now, though, they have nothing to get them to the top of the division, and it looks like that’ll be the case for the rest of the year. 

23.  Mariners- 20-28

ESPN Rank: 18

Without Felix Hernandez, I don’t know where this organization would be right now. Kyle Seager and Michael Morse have talent, but their hitting is nothing compared to the Cy Young contender Hernandez. 

24.   Brewers- 19-27

ESPN Rank: 25

Jean Seguera and Norichika Aoki are two new guys that are making a huge impact with the Brewers, so now they don’t have to rely on Ryan Braun all day. They have terrible pitching though, and when you’re in the best division with pitching, you’re gonna have a tough year.

25.  Cubs- 18-29

ESPN Rank: 27

The Cubs actually have one of the best starting pitching staffs in the major leagues, actually. When the Cubs have a quality start (they’ve had 26 so far), their combined ERA is 1.93. Their problem is, they’ve only won 11 games out of those starts. With Matt Garza back, they could easily add more to their strong pitching. BUT GOOD LORD THEIR RELIEVING CORE SUCKS. 

26.  Dodgers- 19-27

ESPN Rank: 23

The bullpen itself has 13 losses already, the most in the majors. When they have the lead entering the 6^th, they have had 7 losses. When they are trailing entering the 6^th, they have 0 wins. And I thought the Cubs had a bad bullpen.

27.  Mets- 17-27

ESPN Rank: 28

Matt Harvey stays strong with a 1.93 ERA and tied with the best WAR at 3.1. But that’s about it. Daniel Murphy and David Wright hopefully can bring some wins into town, because guys like Ike Davis have nothing to contribute.

28.  Twins- 18-27

ESPN Rank: 21

Poor Twins, they’ve lost 10 in a row.

29.  Astros- 14-34

ESPN Rank: 29

Even with the change in divisions, it’s going to be another long year for the ‘stros. They have by far the worst pitching in the major leagues, racking up a whopping team ERA of 5.39. They’ll be switching off the 29 and 30 spot with the Marlins this year.

30.  Marlins- 13-35

ESPN Rank: 30

Honestly, if the Marlins win more than 50 games, they’ll think it’s a successful season. That’s what you get for trading away all of your players from last year. And now that Stanton is out, they have no hope. If they ever move out of the 29 or 30 spot in the power rankings, I’ll give Mike Redmond a hearty handshake.

So that's my power rankings for this week. Thanks for reading this week, I'll be taking a day off tomorrow, but I'll be back Monday with a look through the week. 

-Evan Boyd

"Baseball is like a poker game. Nobody wants to quit when he's losing; nobody wants you to quit when you're ahead." - Jackie Robinson