Pirates: Now and Come Playoffs

Congrats to the Pittsburgh Pirates for their first winning series in 20 years, getting their 81^st win to clinch a winning series. To be fair, we saw that coming. It’s not like they were going to lose every single game in September. But still, it’s an accomplishment (I guess?). 

Here’s how they did it. Andrew McCutchen started it off with a homer, but the Brewers would respond with two runs of their own. Marlon Byrd, the new acquisition for the Bucs, had two RBI’s, one in the third to tie the game, and one to take the lead in the 8^th. Once again, the Brewers came back to tie it on a Jean Segura single, but Travis Snider would homer in the top half of the 9^th to win it. Jason Grilli got the day off, so Mark Melancon got the save.

This win clinched a non-losing season, the first time since 1992, when they went 96-66. More importantly, it boosted the Pirates lead to two games over the St. Louis Cardinals. It was their fourth straight win at Miller Park, the first time since 2002. From 2007-2012, the Pirates lost 44 of 51 games there. Ouch.

It’s fair to say that McCutchen is the leader of this team, am I correct? He is so versatile and a great all-around player. Last year, he was an all-star, a silver slugger, a gold glover, and was in 3^rd place in the NL MVP voting. He batted .327/.400/.553 with 31 homers, 96 RBI’s, and a league leading 194 hits. This year, his stats have gone down somewhat, batting .320/.399/.509 with 18 homers, 75 RBI’s, and 163 hits. However, he’s on track to strikeout less (he has 88 K’s now, and struck out 132 times last year), have more walks (63 this year to 70 last), and already has 34 doubles (29 last year) and 27 steals (20 last year). 

He also is a better defender this year. Yes, he won the Gold Glove last year, but he probably shouldn’t have. Last year, although he had only one error, he had only three assists and a poor arm, racking up a defensive WAR of -.2. Now, although he’s committed five errors, has nine assists, three double plays, and a 1.1 dWAR. Much better defensive stats this year than last. He leads the NL in WAR with 7.1.

This year, he could win the MVP, especially with the Pirates doing so well. I think Clayton Kershaw will beat him out, but I wouldn’t be mad if he beat Kershaw out.

 Remember that McCutchen is only 26 years old, and hasn’t even hit his prime yet. Granted, he could be an early goer like Doc Gooden, then suck during his prime (using Gooden is a bad example though, I’ll admit. Gooden also dealt with alcohol issues, but he's the first example that popped into my head), but I don’t think that’ll be McCutchen. Like I said, Andrew is an all-around player that can hit for both contact and power, and also is very patient at the plate. It’s tough to get him to chase things because he knows his strike zone very well. 

McCutchen is one of the main reasons why this team is doing so well. Yes, their pitching is better than hitting for sure. Their team batting average is .247, which is 23^rd in the MLB, while their team ERA is 3.17, which is the best in the Majors. But without McCutchen, things could be much worse.

While they are the reasons for their success this season, playoff time is coming soon, and the Pirates need to hold onto their lead in the division. I think the organization did a terrific job in acquiring first baseman Justin Morneau and OF Marlon Byrd. There were talks of the Pirates getting Giancarlo Stanton at the trade deadline, which would be much better than Byrd, but Marlon is still a good acquisition. 

Morneau and Byrd are both veterans, and both old, Justin being 32 and Marlon being 35. However, they bring more leadership and a boost to this offense come playoff time. The organization is looking more into this year and not the future, which normally I wouldn’t agree with, but with a team like this, there’s a real good chance of winning a title. 

 

If you didn’t know this, Justin Morneau is actually a former MVP. That’s right, in 2006, Morneau won the MVP award and the Silver Slugger, while not even being an all-star. He batted .321/.373/.559 with 34 homers and 130 RBI’s. He might have not been the perfect choice for the MVP that year, but still a reasonable one. Morneau went on to four all-star appearances in a row after that year, but fell off the planet after that. 

In his next six years, Morneau batted .291/.357/.487 with 126 homers and 503 RBI’s, which isn’t bad, but injuries kept him sidelined for a good proportion of the 2010 and 2011 season. This year, combined with his performance on Pittsburgh and the Minnesota Twins, Morneau is only batting .262/.321/.427 with 17 homers and 74 RBI’s, but was red hot in the month of August. The Pirates needed a first baseman, and found a good fit.

 

The Pirates also needed a third outfielder after McCutchen and future star Starling Marte (more on him another day). Marlon Byrd is a pretty good choice. He’s a career .279/.336/.425 hitter, but can be a little more expensive than what he’s worth. He’s been on seven different teams, including four different ones since last year. He was also suspended 50 games for the use of Performance-Enhancing Drugs last year. While not a terrible acquisition for the Pirates, I wish they got Giancarlo Stanton.

Congrats to the Pirates, and watch out with their new look on offense. Marte is injured right now, but will be back soon. They will surely need him come playoff time. Also remember how good their rotation and bullpen are, having some of the best guys out there.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

An Update on the WAR

A long time ago, I talked about Wins Above Replacement on this blog. I often refer back to it, but shorten it to WAR. If you don’t remember what WAR is, here’s a brief definition. Wins Above Replacement is a sabermetric used to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic, adding offense, base running, and defensive value all together. Offensive players and Pitchers have different ways to calculate WAR, and different websites calculate it in a different way, but the results are relatively the same. An average full time position player will have a WAR of 2-3. A solid starter, to say. Mark Ellis, the second baseman for the Dodgers, has a 2.6 WAR right now, and has played a solid role for Los Angeles. 

If you ever see anyone with a WAR in the negatives, don’t trust them for anything. In fact, if you were the coach, you should send that player down to AAA, especially come this time of the season and you want to see how other players do. The worst WAR I’ve personally seen is a -2.0 from Mike Jacobs in 2008. Jacobs hit 32 homers that year, but batted .247/.299/.514 for a first baseman, and was literally the worst fielder ever (he had a defensive WAR of -3.2 that year, according to Baseball-Reference.com). It just goes to show you that hitting home runs isn’t everything. If you find someone worse than -2.0, please tell me, I’d love to see it.

I mentioned that a WAR of 2-3 is a solid starter. Of course, as the WAR goes up, the better the player is. According to FanGraphs, a WAR of 6+ is considered MVP worthy, but according to Baseball-Reference, a WAR of 8+ is MVP worthy. I’m going to be a median and say that a WAR of 7+ is MVP worthy.

Right now that leaves us with only two players with a WAR of 7 or more. There’s Andrew McCutchen, who just gets by with a WAR of 7, and Mike Trout, who’s the favorite of every statistician. Trout has a WAR of 8.2, and is considered the best all-around player in baseball. If you define MVP as “Most Valuable Player” (WHICH IS WHAT IT LITERALLY STANDS FOR), then Trout would easily be MVP because of his WAR and his ability to play all around. 

 

Trout will most likely not win theMVP award this year. Why? Let’s refer back to last year and why Trout didn’t win. Last year, Trout had a 10.9 WAR, which is absurd! The last time an offensive player had a WAR above 10 was Barry Bonds (Sammy Sosa had one in 2001 too). Miguel Cabrera, however, won the Triple Crown award, having the highest batting average, the most home runs, and the most RBI’s in the American League. He, unlike Trout, was also on a playoff contending team, and won the MVP award in a landslide.

Notice how the two favorites for MVP in both leagues are not Trout or McCutchen. Cabrera is the favorite in the AL, and Clayton Kershaw is it for the NL. Cabrera makes sense this year. He’s still close with a 6.9 WAR, but actually has an 8.6 offensive WAR. Here are his numbers this year (league leading in bold):

Cabrera: .358/.449/.681, 1.130 OPS, 200 OPS+, 329 Total Bases, 43 homers, 130 RBI’s, 95 runs, 6.9 WAR.

And, for the sake of it, let’s look at Mike Trout:

Trout: .335/.432/.576, 1.008 OPS, 183 OPS+, 292 Total Bases, 23 homers, 82 RBI’s, 95 runs, 8.2 WAR. 

Cabrera dominates the offensive categories. But Trout also walks more, and has 31 stolen bases. To me, it’s a coin flip on who should win MVP. I would probably give it to Cabrera because he is on a playoff contending team, and he might win the Triple Crown with even better stats than last year, but Trout is still a high contender. 

Clayton Kershaw and Andrew McCutchen are probably the top two contenders for MVP right now, but Carlos Gomez, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yadier Molina should also be included into the group. Here’s a look at the top 10 batters in Wins Above Replacement:

1.      Mike Trout (Angels)- 8.2 WAR

2.      Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)- 7.0 WAR

3.      Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)- 6.9 WAR

4.      Carlos Gomez (Brewers)- 6.6 WAR

5.      Robinson Cano (Yankees)- 6.4 WAR

6.      Manny Machado (Orioles)-6.3 WAR

7.      Chris Davis (Orioles)- 6.1 WAR

8.      Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks)- 5.9 WAR

9.      Josh Donaldson (Athletics)- 5.8 WAR

10.  Shane Victorino (Red Sox)- 5.7 WAR

Note that for guys like Carlos Gomez and Manny Machado, much of their WAR stat actually is because of their superb defensive abilities. Andrelton Simmons, who has a 5.5 WAR, is also on that list for pure defense. Gomez has a 3.3 defensive WAR, Machado has a 3.7 dWAR, and Simmons has an absurd 4.9 dWAR. It’s much harder to get a dWAR up high (2.0 or better is Gold Glove worthy), so getting it up to 4.9 might just be one of the best ever. 

Last year, the highest dWAR was Cubs second baseman Darwin Barney (3.6 dWAR).

How Shane Victorino is on that list, I have no idea. Robinson Cano is also kind of surprising too. Remember that he will be the top free agent this offseason, as shown by his WAR. I personally would like to see Paul Goldschmidt win the MVP award, but I don’t think it will happen.

Let’s look at pitching. Here are the top 10 batters in Wins Above Replacement:

1.      Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)- 6.8 WAR

2.      Chris Sale (White Sox)- 6.2 WAR

3.      Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies)- 5.9 WAR

4.      Max Scherzer (Tigers)- 5.8 WAR

5.      Jose Fernandez (Marlins)- 5.5 WAR

6.      Matt Harvey (Mets)- 5.4 WAR

7.      Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners)- 5.4 WAR

8.      Felix Hernandez (Mariners)- 5.1 WAR

9.      Anibal Sanchez (Tigers)-5.1 WAR

10.  Cliff Lee (Phillies)-5.0 WAR

Only three of these players, Chacin, Hernandez, and Lee, have ERA’s over 3, but all have ERA’s lower than 3.10. Kershaw is the only one with an ERA under 2. Notice that Chris Sale is the second best pitcher in terms of WAR, even though he’s 10-12. That goes to show you that records do not mean much as you may think. The top three relievers in terms of WAR are Craig Kimbrel (3.2 WAR), Rex Brothers (3.1 WAR), and my man Koji Uehara (3.0 WAR).

This WAR is getting serious. Hopefully it turns out for the best. I’ll continue updating about the WAR when I can. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

Power Rankings 9 2 13

Power Rankings. Check them out.

1.      Braves: 83-53

Last Week: 1

ESPN Rank: 2

Now 30 games over .500, the Braves are really showing that they are, in my opinion, the best team in baseball. Craig Kimbrel is even better than last year, having surpassed his save total from 42 to now 43, has a .95 ERA, but only has a 12.9 K/9 ratio (that’s still really awesome, but his career average is 15.1). He also has a 3.2 WAR, and frankly if Clayton Kershaw wasn’t doing so well, I’d have him as a top candidate for Cy Young.

2.      Red Sox: 82-56

Last Week: 3

ESPN Rank: 3

Speaking of closers, ESPN is now recognizing Koji Uehara for his outstanding performance in the ‘pen. He’s basically saved the Red Sox bullpen after Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey got hurt. Since June 26, Uehara has allowed only one run, as a 37% swing-and-miss percentage, has a 41-2 K/BB ratio, and a .097 opponent batting average, all in 31 1/3 innings pitched. All of these numbers are 1^st in the MLB.

3.      Dodgers: 81-55

Last Week: 4

ESPN Rank: 1

Here’s a reason you might want to ride the Dodgers hard in the playoffs. They are 43-28 at home, but are also 38-27 on the road. Having a balance like that can really be helpful when they have to snag a win in a different city. The Dodgers now have won four in a row, and seven of their last ten.

4.      Tigers: 80-57

Last Week: 2

ESPN Rank: 4

With Miguel Cabrera listed as day-today, it’ll hurt his chances of winning the Triple Crown, but it might not hurt the Tigers offense as much as you’d think. They are now 1^st in every category on offense, with a team .286 batting average, a team .350 OBP, and a team .443 slugging percentage. They are also just one shy of 700 runs scored this year. To top it all off, they have a lead in the Cy Young, Max Scherzer. But don’t forget about Anibal Sanchez. His 2.68 ERA is the best in the AL. 

5.      Rangers: 79-57

Last Week: 5

ESPN Rank: 6

The Rangers somehow have a better record on the road than at home, as they are 40-28 on the road (compared to 39-29 at home). Alexi Ogando and Nick Tepesch went on the 15-Day DL, which is really hurting their starting pitching, but luckily they still have Yu Darvish and Derek Holland. 

6.      Pirates: 79-57

Last Week: 6

ESPN Rank: 5

Picking up not only Marlon Byrd from the Mets, but Justin Morneau from the Twins is HUGE for this offense. Byrd has a .288/.333/.525 batting line this season with a 4.2 WAR. Morneau has a .259/.315/.426 stance, but has 17 homers, 74 RBI’s, and was red hot in the month of August. I think that he is the key to this Pirates offense to secure a tight spot in the playoffs. 

7.      Cardinals: 79-57

Last Week: 7

ESPN Rank: 7

A +140 run differential is much higher than the Pirates run differential (+57), yet they are still only tied in first place. That’s because they couldn’t really win against the Pirates, as shown when Pittsburgh took four of five in late July. Lucky for the Cardinals, they only have to play Pittsburgh one more time, then play the Brewers twice, the Mariners, the Rockies, and the Cubs.

8.      Athletics: 78-58

Last Week: 10

ESPN Rank: 8

The Athletics have won seven of their last ten, and are just a game back from first in the AL West. They start a series with the Rangers tonight, so watch things change dramatically in the West by Thursday.

9.      Reds: 76-61

Last Week: 9

ESPN Rank: 10

The Reds are 3.5 games out of the Pirates and Cardinals, but they play a four game series at home against St. Louis starting tonight. They are 33-27 against their division, but the Cards are 35-25. Mat Latos went 3-2 with a 1.73 ERA in August, and is 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA against St. Louis. Remember: these two teams are the favorites for squaring off in the wild card play-in game. Latos might be the catalyst in getting the Reds in.

10.  Rays: 75-60

Last Week: 8

ESPN Rank: 9

Going 3-7 in their last ten has been a problem, as now they are 5.5 games out of 1^st place. Lucky for them, they still have the second wild card spot by three games. Why is such a low budget team doing so well? Ask Billy Beane. They get on base, as shown by their team .330 OBP (4^th in MLB). 

11.  Orioles: 72-63

Last Week: 11

ESPN Rank: 12

Pitching continues to be the problem, but Chris Tillman is showing good strength. He’s 15-4 with a 3.61 ERA and 141 strikeouts. All of those are a team best, and he’s also only 25 years old with four years of experience. That’s a really good sign for this team. 

12.  Indians: 72-64

Last Week: 12

ESPN Rank: 13

A grand slam from Mike Aviles is heating up this team. They got swept by the Braves and almost got swept by the Tigers, but I think this will spark their team. I still don’t think they’ll get into the playoffs, but they could threaten some other teams chances at least.

13.  Royals: 70-66

Last Week: 16

ESPN Rank: 15

Last week, the Royals outscored their opponents 37-11, going 5-2 in that span. They have six games left with the Tigers and Indians, so hopefully they can grab some wins there. However, if they don’t get in the playoffs (which they most likely won’t), they have strong stuff for the next few seasons.

14.  Yankees: 72-64

Last Week: 13

ESPN Rank: 11

Ivan Nova is 6-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 10 starts, and threw his first career shutout Saturday. For a team that’s had problems with pitching, it’s a good sign for them in the future.

15.  Nationals: 69-67

Last Week: 16

ESPN Rank: 16

Denard Span, Bryce Harper, and Ian Desmond have been red hot. Jayson Werth has also been a big part with his veteran leadership. Unfortunately for the Nats, it’s too late to try and push back into the playoffs. 

16.  Diamondbacks: 69-66

Last Week: 14

ESPN Rank: 14

Two of the three last wins for the D-Backs have been walkoffs, making that 12 walkoff wins, a league best. They are falling further out of the NL wild card race, and can’t think about winning the division anymore. Paul Goldschmidt and Patrick Corbin are still great, but that’s all they have.

17.  Angels: 63-72

Last Week: 19

ESPN Rank: 17

Despite a horrible season, the Angels are the hottest team in baseball. They’ve won eight of their last nine and have outscored opponents 39-16 in the stretch. Josh Hamilton has finally stepped it up, batting a .338/.427/.558 line lately. Unfortunately like the Nationals, the Angels have no chance of the playoffs.

18.  Rockies: 65-73

Last Week: 18

ESPN Rank: 18

What happened to Michael Cuddyer? Why did everyone stop talking about him? Probably because the Rockies are eight games under. He still bats .328/.389/.540 with 18 homers, 71 RBI’s, and a 3.6 offensive WAR. Not bad at all, but not MVP worthy.

19.  Blue Jays: 62-75

Last Week: 22

ESPN Rank: 21

Remember when Toronto was .500, along with every other team in the AL East? That luck is no more. I think the Blue Jays know that they are completely out of the playoffs, especially with Josh Johnson now completely shut down. They have old veterans like R.A. Dickey and Mark Buerhle, but they do have young talent that they look forward to see in 2014. 

20.  Mets: 62-73

Last Week: 21

ESPN Rank: 19

With Matt Harvey out, the Mets have really nothing to look forward to for the rest of the season. It’s really sad to see, and I hope that he can recover well so we can see him in 2015. Eric Young Jr., however, has been red hot, batting .346 with five steals in his last seven games.

21.  Phillies: 62-75

Last Week: 20

ESPN Rank: 22

How was Ryne Sandberg’s first trip back to Chicago? Eh, not that good. The Cubs took two of three from the Phillies. With Michael Young gone, they are shutting down this season for good.

22.  Mariners: 62-74

Last Week: 17

ESPN Rank: 20

Seattle has dropped seven of their last ten, Felix Hernandez has been struggling big time, and they are now in 4^th place in the division. The good news is that top prospect Taijuan Walker made his major league debut, and was very impressive, allowing two hits and an unearned run in five innings.

23.  Giants: 61-75

Last Week: 24

ESPN Rank: 23

The Giants have moved to 4^th place in the division, which you can say is an accomplishment, I guess. Matt Cain went on the 15-Day disabled list, as they try to figure out what the hell is going on with him. They are 20 games back from the Dodgers, and their season is over.

24.  Twins: 59-76

Last Week: 25

ESPN Rank: 26

I don’t know how the Twins moved up a spot. They were 57-72 last week, so they shouldn’t be doing that well. They just traded their biggest slugger Justin Morneau, but got Alex Presley, who went 3 for 4 with a run scored and an RBI in his first game with the Twins.

25.  Padres: 60-76

Last Week: 23

ESPN Rank: 24

Entering July, the Padres were only 2.5 games out of first place. Now they are 16 games under because they’ve gone 20-34 since and have been outscored by 68 runs. They’ve lost three in a row now, and have moved into last place in the West.

26.  Brewers: 59-77

Last Week: 26

ESPN Rank: 25

Since the break, Kyle Lohse is 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA in nine starts. Not bad. I wonder what this team would be like if Braun wasn’t suspended. The funny thing is, I think they would still be in this exact position. He’s still a disgrace in my book, though.

27.  Cubs: 58-78

Last Week: 27

ESPN Rank: 27

The Cubs got a great deal from the Orioles, acquiring reliever Pedro Strop and starter Jake Arrieta. As an Oriole, Strop went 0-3 with a 7.25 ERA, but since being dealt, he’s gone 2-1 with a 2.19 ERA, and has had 22 scoreless appearances out of 14. Jake Arrieta at Baltimore was 1-2 with a 7.23 ERA. Now he is 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA. Hey, sometimes a different team can be the whole difference.

28.  White Sox: 56-79

Last Week: 28

ESPN Rank: 28

The White Sox actually posted a 16-13 record in August because of a five game winning streak in the middle. Don’t forget about Chris Sale, and remember Jose Quintana. Sale has a 6.2 WAR, and Quintana has a 4.2 WAR. They rank 1^st and 7^th in the AL, respectfully.

29.  Marlins: 50-85

Last Week: 29

ESPN Rank: 29

Guess who’s the team leader in RBI’s? It’s tied between Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Ruggiano. They have 42 RBI’s each. Good lord this offense is bad. After crushing the Braves yesterday, they ended a six game losing streak, and it was only their seventh win in their last 27 tries.

30.  Astros: 45-91

Last Week: 30

ESPN Rank: 30

There’s nothing to say about this team. They already have 91 losses, and there is still a month to play. Bud Norris has the most wins with the team with six, and he’s not even on the team anymore.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/conerns.

-Evan Boyd