Who's Hot/Who's Not

Happy Friday, go Hawks, and poor Brewers. Outfielder Corey Hart is out for the season as he needs knee surgery. Clay Buchholz for the Red Sox has still not returned; Buchholz has a 1.72 ERA and is 9-0. 

Anyways, let’s look at who’s hot, and who’s not. 

Who’s hot:

 Pedro Alvarez: The third baseman from the Pirates is batting .448 this week with 4 homers and 8 RBI’s. He now has 19 homers, 51 RBI’s, but is only batting .242. That’s still really good for a team that struggles in hitting. But who cares really, the Pirates are now tied in first as they have won 6 in a row. This Pirates team is for real.

 Jason Kipnis: Think Alvarez’s .448 average is good? Try Kipnis’ .500 average with 2 homers and 10 RBI’s. That also doesn’t count his performance today, as he is already 2 for 2 with 2 RBI’s and 3 walks. They’re afraid of him. His batting performance is .293/.379/.519 now. He’s the 3^rd hitter and plays 2^nd base. Who is 

he, Robinson Cano?

Mike Trout: Welcome back to the list, Trout. The badass is batting .382 with 7 RBI’s, and now is batting .316 with 51 RBI’s after a slow start. He’s really starting to hit it up now. Unfortunately, as much as he’s performing, it’s still not enough to bring the Angels out of their misery. It’s pitching that they need. 

Michael Cuddyer: Now yes, I know he plays for the Rockies, who have a small stadium, but good lord he has a 24 game hit streak! This week he’s batted .448 with 7 RBI’s, and now is batting .351/.402/.597 on the year. His WAR is 1.5, but that’s only because he sucks on defense (-1.3 dWAR).

Chris Davis: Though he has not passed Miguel Cabrera’s 78 RBI’s, he could any day now. Davis now has 28 homers and 74 RBI’s. He has a 4.0 War; just like Cuddyer, if he played better defense, it’d be much higher. Nevertheless, check out my blog on him before to find out that this guy is real stuff.

 

Max Scherzer: More talk about how he’s the next Justin Verlander. He’s doing well, that’s for sure. He’s 11-0 with a 3.05 ERA, and a very high K/BB ratio (about 6). He’s pitching tonight as well to try and get his 12^th. He’s real good and could easily start for the AL All-star team.

Matt Harvey: The kid can just pitch. He now has a 2.05 ERA, and he’s 7-1. Too bad he’s the only thing the Mets have right now. But hey, it’s a great person to have when he’s so young and so talented. In his last 3 starts he’s 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA, and struck out 26.

 

 Cliff Lee: Like Harvey, it seems like Lee is the only pitcher that wants to thrive on his team, this time in Philly. He’s 9-2 with a 2.51 ERA, and really could be the Cy Young of the NL. He has a lot of competition with Harvey, Clayton Kershaw, Jeff Locke, and Jordan Zimmerman, though. Those are just to name a few in such a 

pitching dominated league.

 

Matt Garza: I put Garza on because last week he was on the cold list, so good for Matt for switching it up! Garza is 3-1 with a 3.83 ERA, but is 2-0 with a .82 ERA in his last 3 starts. He’s looked quite solid and is huge trade bait for the Cubs. I see him on a different team after the trade deadline. 

That’s good enough. How about who’s not?

Ryan Hanigan (Reds): I thought Hanigan was supposed to be good! He’s batting .183 with only 2 homers, and is batting .217 this week. A much bigger change from last year. 

Tyler Colvin (Rockies): After being brought up when Fowler and Gonzalez got hurt, Colvin is batting only .159. He does not have a hit this week. 

Trevor Cahill (Diamondbacks): When the D-Backs are holding on to a first place lead, Cahill is trying to blow it more and more. In the last 3 starts, he’s 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA, and is now 3-9 with a 4.29 ERA. 

Sweaty Freddy Garcia (Orioles): Just another reason why the Orioles aren’t the best team in the league: their pitching is bad. Garcia has a 12.46 ERA in his last 3 starts, and now has a 5.77 ERA. They have no good ace to try and beat the big teams in the AL, or worse, the NL pitching.

Andrew Bailey (Red Sox): Bailey lost his closer role after blowing 3 of 5 save opportunities, and now has a 4.37 ERA. But no worries, Boston! Koji Uehara has taken over as closer, and he’s 2 for 2 this week! Maybe it was a good thing that Bailey was doing bad.

Phil Coke (Tigers): What is up with this bullpen? Coke is now 1/4 in save opportunities, and 0-6.  He has a 6.56 ERA on the season. First Valverde, then Coke, now it seems like all they have is Joaquin Benoit.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com if I missed anyone big.

-Evan Boyd

Who Is Chris Davis?

It’s been Chris Davis this and Chirs Davis that when it comes to the Baltimore Orioles this year. Would you believe me if I told you that he’s been in the league for 7 years now? Why hasn’t anyone talked about him before? 

Because he’s had the biggest jump in statistics since Melky Cabrera last year. I’m not saying he’s on steroids, I’m just saying that Davis is a much improved player. In his earlier years he has hit plenty for power, including hitting 21 homers in 2009. But he never could do that much otherwise besides strike out, and it didn’t seem like he progressed. That’s why in 2011 the Texas Rangers traded him to the Orioles. 

Last year he batted .270/.326/.501 with 33 homers and 85 RBI’s. Apparently he also pitched two innings. That’s actually not that bad, but not good enough to be a quality starter (note: his Wins Above Replacement was only 1.6, and a 2 or higher is a quality starter). He struck out 169 times last year, a track he’s on pace for this year as well. 

But the past is the past. His stats now are almost better than Miguel Cabrera’s. He’s batting .330/.404/.709, with 73 RBI’s and a league leading 28 homers. His batting average going up 60 points just sounds like steroid abuse. Here are three reasons why that might not be the case:

1.      On Base Percentage: Billy Beane would love him, because he can get on base. He’s walked 33 times this year, which is better than his 37 from last year. He’s been much more patient with the ball and is finding his right pitch to either take out of the ball park, or decides just to take a walk. It might be time for teams to start intentionally walking him, which would boost his OBP even more.

2.      Strength: Look at a picture of him, the guy has always been jacked. For every 10 at-bats, Davis will hit a home run. He also has 24 doubles, which would be a league leader if his teammate Manny Machado wasn’t cranking double after double. 

3.      Prime: Davis is 27 years old, and many players reach their prime at this moment. His stats last year show that he can improve but can still put up good numbers. This year proves that. He could be a solid hitter for the next five to ten years.

Chris Davis is set to hit about 58 home runs this year, which would break Brady Anderson’s team record of 50 home runs. That won’t come close to Barry Bonds' 2001 year when he hit 71 homers, though. I also mentioned Manny Machado for the Orioles before: he’s on track to hit 80 doubles, which would be a record. 

Watch out for the Orioles’ offense. If it wasn’t for their poor pitching, they’d be the best team in the league. And watch out for Chris Davis, he is the only one that can beat Miguel Cabrera from winning a second Triple Crown.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

 

-Evan Boyd

Sabermetric Statistic- Runs Scored

Here's a small sabermetric that deals a lot with probability and how many runs a team usually would have gotten in an inning.

Definition- Estimating the number of runs a team “should” have scored given their component offensive statistics, as well as the number of runs a hitter/pitcher/creates/allows.

Many different versions have been used, but most take the form:

A*B/(B+C) + D

A represents baserunners

B represents advancement of baserunners

C represents outs

D represents guaranteed runs (usually just home runs)

In theory, the true identity of the equation is:

Baserunners* (% Baserunners that score) + homeruns.

Different uses:

A = H + W - HR
B = (1.4*TB - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*W)*1.02
C = AB - H
D = HR

A second formula incorporated all of the official offensive statistics with the exception of sacrifices:

A = H + W + HBP - HR - .5*IW
B = (1.4*TB - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*(W + HBP - IW) + .9*(SB - CS - GDP))*1.1
C = AB - H + CS + GDP
D = HR

A third formula was designed to be used with pitching statistics:
A = H + W - HR
B = (1.4*TBe - .6*H - 3*HR + .1*W)*1.1
C = 3*IP
D = HR
Where TBe = 1.12*H + 4*HR

It's more of a probability of how many runs a team would get. For example, if there are men on second and third with nobody out, the probability of scoring 1 run is very high, and scoring 2 runs pretty high as well. Scoring no runs is low, but can happen, and that's where Runs Scored comes in to show the deviation.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers, two favorites for winning their respectful pennants, would have high runs scored because they get men on base and they are great with runners in scoring position.

Read "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball" by Tom Tango, Mitchel Litchman, and Andrew Dolphin. It has a lot to talk about probability of scoring runs in a given inning.

 Email me at
statsbuddy42@gmail.com with any questions/comments/concerns.



-Evan Boyd

All Star Updates

The All-Star Game is coming up, and it’s time to look at the sport where the all-star game actually matters. But before we do that, I want to mention Carlos Gomez for the Brewers. Gomez is a sabermetrician favorite, because he leads the league with his 4.9 WAR. He isn’t even top ten in the voting for the NL. His offensive stats are not like Miguel Cabrera’s or Chris Davis’, but his defense accompanies why he’s such an amazing player. Unfortunately, Gomez left yesterday’s game with a sprained shoulder after crashing into the wall (he did make the catch). I will have more updates on his injury later.

First off, here are the updates for the voting:

National League:

Catchers:

1.      Yadier Molina- Cardinals

2.      Buster Posey- Giants

3.      John Buck- Mets

4.      Jonathan Lucroy- Brewers

5.      Miguel Montero- Diamondbacks

First Base:

1.      Joey Votto- Reds

2.      Paul Goldschmidt- Diamondbacks

3.      Allen Craig- Cardinals

4.      Brandon Belt- Giants

5.      Freddie Freeman- Braves

Second Base: 

1.      Brandon Phillips- Reds

2.      Marco Scutaro- Giants

3.      Matt Carpenter- Cardinals

4.      Chase Utley- Phillies

5.      Daniel Murphy- Mets

Shortstop:

1.      Troy Tulowitzki- Rockies (note, Troy is on the DL and won’t be back for the game)

2.      Brandon Crawford- Giants

3.      Jean Segura- Brewers

4.      Pete Kozma- Cardinals

5.      Andrelton Simmons- Braves

Third Base: 

1.      David Wright- Mets

2.      Pablo Sandoval- Giants

3.      David Freese- Cardinals

4.      Chris Johnson- Braves

5.      Aramis Ramirez- Brewers

Outfield (I’m naming top 10):

1.      Carlos Beltran- Cardinals

2.      Justin Upton- Braves (note, he’s been sooo cold lately)

3.      Bryce Harper- Nationals

4.      Carlos Gonzalez- Rockies

5.      Ryan Braun- Brewers (note, he’s hurt, but might be back for the game if he would like to play)

6.      Matt Holliday- Cardinals

7.      Andrew McCutchen- Pirates

8.      Hunter Pence- Giants

9.      Shin-Soo Choo- Reds

10.  Angel Pagan- Giants

American League:

Catcher:

1.      Joe Mauer- Twins

2.      Matt Wieters- Orioles

3.      A.J. Pierzynski- Rangers

4.      Carlos Santana- Indians

5.      Jarrod Saltalamacchia- Red Sox

First Base:

1.      Chris Davis- Orioles

2.      Prince Fielder- Tigers

3.      Mike Napoli- Red Sox

4.      Albert Pujols- Angels

5.      Mitch Moreland- Rangers

Second Base: 

1.      Robinson Cano- Yankees

2.      Dustin Pedroia- Red Sox

3.      Ian Kinsler- Rangers

4.      Omar Infante- Tigers

5.      Jose Altuve- Astros

Shorstop:

1.      J.J. Hardy- Orioles

2.      Jhonny Peralta- Tigers

3.      Elvis Andrus- Rangers

4.      Jed Lowrie- Athletics

5.      Derek Jeter- Yankees (note: Jeter has not played at all this season. What the hell, Yankee fans?)

Third Base: 

1.      Miguel Cabrera- Tigers (note: has the most votes with 4,337,223)

2.      Manny Machado- Orioles

3.      Adrian Beltre- Rangers

4.      Evan Longoria- Rays

5.      Josh Donaldson- Athletics

Outfield:

1.      Adam Jones- Orioles

2.      Mike Trout- Angels

3.      Nick Markakis- Orioles

4.      Jose Bautista- Blue Jays

5.      Torii Hunter- Tigers

6.      Nate McClouth- Orioles

7.      Nelson Cruz- Rangers

8.      Jacoby Ellsbury- Red Sox

9.      Alex Gordon- Royals

10.  Yoenis Cespedes- Athletics

DH:

1.      David Ortiz- Red Sox

2.      Lance Berkman- Rangers

3.      Edwin Encarnacion- Blue Jays

4.      Victor Martinez- Tigers

5.      Mark Trumbo- Angels

Now remember, every team gets at least 1 all-star, so voting is more of who they want to start the game with. Also, pitchers are not voted by the people, but rather chosen by members of Major League Baseball. The All Star Game is on July 16^th.

Lots of talk about who will pitch for each team. It’ll be much easier to determine who will get the nod for the AL compared to the NL, because the NL has much better pitching by far.

For the AL, if he’s back and ready to play, it’ll be Clay Buchholz for the Red Sox. He’s 9-0, has a 1.71 ERA, and has a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 4.1. He is one of the main reasons why Boston is doing so well this year compared to last year. 

Now the AL pitcher that won’t get offered to start for the All-Star Game but should is Hisashi Iwakuma for the Mariners. If you’ve read my blog, you’ve seen me talk about this guy. He’s no joke; he’s 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA, a .89 WHIP, and a 3.8 WAR. If he continues to pitch this way, he deserves to win the Cy Young Award.

Now for the NL, there are so many players that could be the starters, such as Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, or Stephen Strasburg. Each of those players have an ERA less than 2.50, but Kershaw is the only one that I would think would get the nod. If Wainwright or Strasburg do, I’d be pissed.

Matt Harvey should be the starter though. I’ve seen so much with Kershaw and think that he would be the next Cy Young winner, but it’s going to be quite the race with these two pitchers. Harvey is 7-1 with a 2.05 ERA, a .88 WHIP, and has struck out 121. He also leads the league with a 4.2 WAR.

Two pitchers that should get offered to start but won’t are Jeff Locke for the Pirates and Patrick Corbin for the D-Backs. Locke is 6-1 with a 2.01 ERA, while Corbin is 9-0 with a 2.19 ERA. Plus these guys are young, and are not even in their prime yet. If they don’t get selected this year, they will in the future.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com if I missed someone that you think should be in the all-star game.

-Evan Boyd

If you haven’t seen this amazing play by Victor Martinez yet, check this out.