Watch out for Oakland

The Free Agency is about halfway done, especially for hitters. Ellsbury is gone, McCann is gone, Peralta is gone, but Cano, Choo, and Beltran remain. There are still a high amount of pitchers left, but a lot of those “medium-valued pitchers without high salaries” are gone, like Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, and Scott Kazmir.

The Tigers have made a bunch of moves with trading Prince Fielder, acquiring Joe Nathan, and being top candidates for big valued free agents. They also have moved Miguel Cabrera back to play first base, and prospect Nick Castellanos moves to third. Now they are without a main centerfielder, so watch them go after maybe Choo or Beltran.

Other teams that have made big splashes are the Twins, Athletics, Yankees, and Cardinals.

But who is so called “winning” the free agency? You could definetly say the Tigers with their moves, or the Yankees with signing Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann. Even the lowly Astros have been making moves with trading for OF Dexter Fowler.

I like the Oakland Athletics in this. Billy Beane is not losing too much in his so-called “Moneyball system” (Note: The previous Oakland Athletics years are much more of a Moneyball-like idea compared to the 2002 Athletics, where the movie is based on. More on that later), and is adding some cheap, young-to-middle-age guys.

They are most likely losing Bartolo Colon, especially with the acquisition of Scott Kazmir. Colon, 40, went 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA and a 5.0 WAR (1.0 higher than his Cy Young 2005 season), finishing 6^th in the Cy Young race. Colon is old, and after having a great season, he’s going to want much more money with a new contract.

To replace him, the Athletics brought in Scott Kazmir from Cleveland. Kazmir, a guy who has been plagued with injuries since 2008, bounced back in 2013 by going 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA and a 1.1 WAR.

Well hold on a sec, Evan! Kazmir’s numbers are so much worse than Colon’s! How can he possibly replace him? My first reason is with the ballpark factor.

The ballpark factor can skew even the best players’ stats. For example, Coors Field in Colorado deeply benefits hitters. That’s why, in their prime, Larry Walker and Todd Helton could hit .370. Justin Morneau is the Rockies’ new acquisition, so watch his numbers jack up.

For the Coliseum in Oakland, it is deeply a pitcher’s ballpark. That’s why Colon, who has a career ERA under 4, has such low numbers. And everyone knows this; that’s why you don’t see too many power hitters in Oakland, but rather contact hitters (rumor has it that they do want to trade one of their top sluggers, Yoenis Cespedes).

So Kazmir’s numbers, if healthy and coached well, will go down. Will they go all the way down to 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA? Probably not. But it won’t be in the upper 4’s.

They also just resigned Coco Crisp, who not only has one of the best names in baseball, but has put up a combined 13.3 WAR in four years with Oakland (average is 3.325 per year). They also signed SS Nick Punto to a one-year deal.

But here’s my favorite acquisition that Oakland made. They lost their closer Grant Balfour, who has done a great job in that spot. He’s put up 62 saves and a 2.56 ERA over the past two years. But Balfour will be 36 in the 2014 season, so Oakland wants someone a little younger.

 

Despite there being lots of free agent closers out there, like Balfour, Brian Wilson, and Joaquin Benoit, the Athletics decided to trade for a closer. They decided to get Orioles’ closer Jim Johnson.

In the past two years, Johnson has been one of the best closers in baseball. He’s put up a 2.72 ERA, which is just above Balfour, but he saved 101 games and finished 126. He’s also only making about $6.5 million a year. He does blow a lot of saves, converting 50 of 59 opportunities last season. However, if you can get 50 saves per year, it’s still pretty good.

So the Athletics have found solutions to their bullpen, their starting rotation, and their hitting. Now it’s time for them to just get better this offseason. With such a tough division, they still have a good chance to win it for the third straight year.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd