A Look at the NLCS and Game 5

Adam Wainwright. What an amazing performance that he had last night, as he gets the St. Louis Cardinals to advance to the World Series. While the Pittsburgh Pirates used five relievers, the Cardinals didn’t have to use any, as Wainwright went the distance. He gave up eight hits, one earned run, and struck out six in 107 pitches as St. Louis clinches with a 6-1 victory.

Gerrit Cole, the starter for the Pirates, didn’t have that bad of a night. He had one pitch get away from him, and that was a hanging breaking ball to David Freese. Freese, one of the greatest postseason players in Cardinals history, hits it out to break the scoreless game to a 2-0 lead. Besides that, Cole gave up only two more hits, and got out of big jams as well. 

 

Before the Cardinals went ahead 6-1 in the 8^th, it seemed like defense was the key on both sides to this game. Matt Carpenter hit a ball that looked like would be at least a triple, but LF Starling Marte had an amazing diving catch to silent the crowd. Pedro Alvarez had the same feeling as Carpenter had, when he hit a bloop that SS Pete Kozma dove out for a miraculous catch. Kozma, who batted only .217 in the regular season, had a team best .400 batting average in this series. 

 

Kozma also, however, made a mental mistake that cost the Pirates a run. A grounder up the middle looked like it would end the inning, and all Kozma had to do was flip it to Matt Carpenter to get the force out at 2^nd base. He decided, however, to lob it over to Matt Adams, the first baseman, but it was such a slow throw that Marlon Byrd was able to beat it out. 

The next batter was Pedro Alvarez, who hit a grounder that went off first base and over Matt Adams. Luckily, Carpenter was backing up, but they could still not get the out. Justin Morneau, who was on 2^nd and was running on the 3-2 count, was able to score. Pedro Alvarez is the first player in MLB history to have an RBI in the first six games of his postseason career. His slugging percentage in the series was .941.

The Cardinals, however, kept on fighting, and they powered through the entire game. Congrats to them, as they make it to their third NLCS in a row. This time, however, they play the Los Angeles Dodgers.

I was thinking of writing about who has the advantage in this series, but I’ll be honest, it’s pretty even. They way Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright have pitched in the postseason, it’s been relatively the same. Both have that postseason hero, the Cardinals having David Freese, and the Dodgers having Juan Uribe. Both have great relievers in Edward Mujica and Kenly Jansen too.

In offensive statistics, the Cardinals have a small advantage. In the regular season, the Dodgers batted .264/.326/.396, which is 6^th, 9^th, and 15^th best in the MLB, respectively. The Cardinals batted  .269/.332/.401, which is 4^th, 3^rd, and 12^th best in the MLB, respectively. There are two stats to also keep in mind offensively: the Dodgers hit many more home runs, while the Cardinals are much better with RISP. Plus they have young talent with Yasiel Puig and Jon Jay. It’s tough to figure out who has the advantage.

Pitching wise, the Dodgers have a small advantage. They had a team 3.25 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .243 BAA, which is 2^nd, 6^th, and 5^th best in the MLB, respectively. The Cardinals had a team 3.42 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .249 BAA, which is 5^th, 8^th, and 12^th best, respectively (though they still have almost the exact same WHIP). Clayton Kershaw is obviously the best starter in this situation, while the Cardinals might have better pitchers after their ace, especially with how well rookie Michael Wacha has been.

Both Kershaw and Wainwright pitched their team’s clinching game. What does that mean? It means that they won’t start Game 1. Instead, it’ll be Zack Greinke vs. Joe Kelly. Greinke, a former Cy Young winner, went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA in the regular season. Kelly, who switches from starter and reliever, went 10-5 with a 2.69 ERA. 

That’s going to be a great series. It’ll start tomorrow at 7:30. Tonight, however, will be the final game of the divisional series. The A’s and Tigers, a matchup that has been shadowed by the other ones, will finish tonight at 7. It’ll be the David of A’s Sonny Gray, who had that incredible game 2 start, against the Goliath Justin Verlander… again. Last time, David overcame. Let’s see if lightning can strike twice.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd