Thursday, October 31, 2013

Boston Strong: Red Sox World Series Champs


For the first time since 1918, where Babe Ruth came in as a defensive specialist for the Red Sox, Boston takes the World Series title at Fenway. It’s their third title since 2004, in where they broke the 86 year curse of the Bambino. Now, they are one of the best teams in baseball.

redsoxfinaloutThey dominated the Cardinals in a 6-1 victory, with Koji Uehara striking out Matt Carpenter to clinch it. The Cardinals left nine men on base, and the reporters were criticizing that a lot, but in fact, the Red Sox left eleven men on. The Cardinals also had more hits in the game (9) than the Red Sox (8). So how did Boston crush?

They got to Michael Wacha early. Yes, they did not strike until the third inning, but unlike the times where they were getting no hit, they were threatening. In the first inning, Dustin Pedroia, who actually only batted .208 in the world series, hit one that looked gone from the swing of the bat, but just went foul. It was just like his hit in Game 6 of the ALCS, and that foreshadowed a strike by the Red Sox after.

The same thing would occur. It wouldn’t be until the third inning, but the Red Sox were able to load the bases after Wacha beans Jonny Gomes. Guess who stands in? Shane Victorino.

I hope you remember what happened the last time Victorino had the bases loaded. He hit one out. This one was close to going out – but instead it hit the green monster. No matter- he would clear the benches with a triple. It’s 3-0 Boston.

Victorino with the bases loaded in the postseason has put up 20 RBI’s in his career. Yes, 20. That’s a record.

Here’s a tough part that Michael Wacha had to deal with: David Ortiz. If one runner got on, they would have to intentionally walk him. He is just too dangerous. Ortiz would actually go 0-for-1 in the game, but his 1.948 OPS is by far a World Series record.

The third inning came, and it started off with an unfamiliar bat. Stephen Drew, who was terrible in the postseason this year offensively, would crack a solo shot to break his cold streak. That I did not see coming. It’s 4-0 Boston.

Michael Wacha was knocked around in Game 6.
Michael Wacha would not want to relive that 4th inning ever again. The Red Sox batted around the order, including Shane Victorino singling with the bases loaded AGAIN, and Wacha would be removed with two outs in the inning. He gave up five hits, six runs, four walks, and five K’s.


There was a touching moment between Yadier Molina and Wacha when he was pulled. Molina, the veteran, knew that he had to cheer up the rookie, who probably feels like he’ll regret this for the rest of his life. It’s a shame because he pitched so well since the end of September. In fact, I don’t think the Cardinals would be in the World Series if they didn’t have Wacha on the mound.

It’s gotta be tough. But a good point to watch is how Clayton Kershaw got rocked in Game 6 against Wacha and the Cards, and St. Louis clinched. Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. Yes, it’s an elimination World Series game, but it just goes to show ya that even the best can falter in times like these. Cheer up Wacha – you have a bright future ahead.

Lance Lynn would come in, and he was no solution. Lynn would not get out of the 4th, giving up two hits and a walk. It would be Seth Maness, who gave up the home run to Jonny Gomes in Game 4, to close out that 4th inning.

It’s 6-0 Boston, and they were not stopping there.

John Lackey tipped his hat to the crowd after being pulled from the game in the seventh .John Lackey pitched very well. Remember, this isn’t the first time that he was placed in this situation. In the 2002 World Series, he pitched Game 7 against the Giants, and won. That Giants team was expected to crush the Angels (they had Bonds, who batted .370/.582/.799 that year, winning the MVP with ease).

This time, the Red Sox were the favorites, but Lackey still proved strong. He would go 6-and-two-thirds, giving up nine hits, but allowing only one run and one walk while striking out five.

In the 7th inning, he had runners on 2nd and 3rd, with Matt Holliday stepping up to the plate. Lackey, who you have to literally force the ball out of his hands, refuse to give up the ball when John Farrell came out. This time, and for the first time Farrell ever had done, he let his starter stay in.

Unfortunately, it won’t be as memorable as we think it’ll be. He ended up walking Holliday.

Nevertheless, the bullpen pitched scoreless innings; Brandon Workman needed only nine pitches in the 8th, and Uehara only 13.

davidortizWSflagThe Red Sox are your World Series champs, winning it in six games. David Ortiz would win the MVP, and rightfully so. If you rule him out of the game, the Red Sox would bat under .200. ORTIZ BATTED .688! Jeez!

Don’t rule the Cardinals out completely. They fought valiantly, and proved that they are still an amazing team. Remember, they have some young talent and a great farm system. They will be back to the World Series sooner than you think.



In 2004, it was Keith Folke who tossed it to Doug Mientkiewicz to secure a World Series for the Sox for the first time since 1918. Three years later, Jonathan Papelbon was the closer, getting a K to win it. Now, it's Uehara, the guy who my friends and I loved two years ago from a board game that we play, strikes out Matt Carpenter to win it.

Congrats, Boston, on your well-deserved win. Watching the Red Sox and Boston celebrate makes me wonder what Chicago will be like when the Cubs win it all. Sad, I know, but it’ll be worth to see when it happens!

Tomorrow I’ll look at the Red Sox 2013 season, from Spring Training to their trip to Disneyworld. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Gold Glove Winners!



The Gold Glove winners were released last night, and some maintained their Gold Glove streak, while others received their first. The Orioles and the Royals dominated the lineup with three awards each. There weren’t too many surprises here, as some players had the best defensive seasons not only in their career, but ever in their position.

Here are the winners for the 2013 Gold Glove Awards:

AL:
P          R.A. Dickey* - Blue Jays
C         Salvador Perez – Royals
1B       Eric Hosmer – Royals
2B       Dustin Pedroia* – Red Sox
3B       Manny Machado* – Orioles
SS        J.J. Hardy – Orioles
LF       Alex Gordon* – Royals
CF       Adam Jones – Orioles
RF       Shane Victoriono – Red Sox

NL:
P          Adam Wainwright – Cardinals
C         Yadier Molina* – Cardinals
1B       Paul Goldschmidt* - Diamondbacks
2B       Brandon Phillips – Reds
3B       Nolan Arenado -  Rockies
SS        Andrelton Simmons* - Braves
LF       Carlos Gonzalez – Rockies
CF       Carlos Gomez* - Brewers
RF       Gerardo Parra* - Diamondbacks

*indicates that the player also won the Fielding Bible Award, which combines both AL and NL into nine awards, one for each position.

Like I said before, there are some surprises here, and there are no surprises here. Let’s look at the “no surprise” picks first before things get interesting.

I don’t even have to name them. Basically my no surprises are the ones who won the Fielding Bible Award for their position, minus Paul Goldschmidt and R.A. Dickey. The reason why I don’t say Goldschmidt was a shoe-in was because 1B Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs also had a great year, but Goldy deserved it. 


Goldschmidt also won the Hank Aaron Award for best offensive player in the NL (AL was Miguel Cabrera). With a Hank Aaron Award and now a Gold Glove, Goldschmidt should really be one of the tops in the MVP race.

I don’t say R.A. Dickey because the gold glove for pitching is important, but it’s much easier to get one than any other position. That’s why usually the Gold Glove for pitching is dominated by one pitcher; From 1991 to 2006, only three pitchers won it in the AL (Mark Langston, Mike Mussina, and Kenny Rogers), and Greg Maddux won 13 Gold Gloves in a row (he finished with 18).

Molina, Pedroia, Gomez, and Simmons must have been unanimous. Yadier Molina is the best defensive catcher baseball has seen since Pudge Rodriguez, whether you accept it or not. It’s Molina’s sixth straight Gold Glove, accompanied with a 2.1 defensive WAR this year.

I love Dustin Pedroia’s story: no scouts like him when he was 26 in 2006 because of his shortness, but then a guy named Nate Silver comes along and proves statistically that Pedroia is one of the top young players in baseball. He showed them, as Pedroia would win Rookie of the Year, then MVP the next year. He put on a dWAR of 2.3 this year, matching his career high.

I’ve mentioned dWAR twice now. The Society of American Baseball Research (SABR) convinced Rawlings to add a sabermetric element into the balloting, so now there are 30 votes determining the player sabermetrically, or about 25% of the process.

I mention this because Andrelton Simmons, Carlos Gomez, and Nolan Arenado all had some of the best defensive years sabermetrically… ever. He was the best defensive player this year, and he proved that by having some of the most outstanding plays at the shortstop position.

He led the Majors with 41 Defensive Runs Saves, meaning that he saved 41 runs that would have cost the Braves, but instead were outs. He also had a 5.4 dWAR this year, which is UNHEARD OF. Last year, 2B Darwin Barney led the Majors with the best dWAR at 3.5, and that was unheard of back then.


The kid wasn’t all ever in offense either: he batted only .248/.296/.396, but with his defensive capabilities, he ended up with a 6.7 WAR. That just goes to show ya that offense isn’t everything.

 

Carlos Gomez is another statistic nerd’s favorite. He’s just like Mike Trout, but hits for a little less contact, and can’t get on base as well. He is, however, just as good as Trout in defense. Gomez robbed home run after home run, including this one, where he robbed Joey Votto’s home run to end the game.


He had a 4.6 dWAR, and finished with an 8.4 WAR. He batted .284/.338/.506 with 24 homers, 73 RBI’s, and 40 steals, and should be top 3 in the MVP balloting. He won’t be, but he should be.

Manny Machado is another great name to look at. He had a 6.5 WAR this year, with a 4.4 dWar. He also led the AL in at-bats (667) and doubles (51). Check out this play that he made in the all-star game, getting, who else, Paul Goldschmidt to ground out.

Nolan Arenado becomes the first rookie since Ichiro to win a Gold Glove as a Rookie. Ichrio, who won it in 2001, won both Rookie of the Year and MVP. Unfortunately for Arenado, there are so many other candidates for Rookie of the Year, so he probably won’t win.

The only player that I’m real surprised about is Brandon Phillips. Yes, this is his 4th Gold Glove Award, and yes, Phillips has had some clutch plays this year, but when you look at it statistically, Cubs’ Darwin Barney deserved to win his 2nd straight.

Phillips had -1 defensive runs saved and a .4 dWAR, while Barney had a MLB best .993 fielding percentage (best for everyday second basemen), and a 1.4 dWAR.  Barney also had a 71-game errorless streak to start off the season, and ended the season without an error in 52 games.

That was my only argument, but besides that, everything else seems right. I really like the addition of the 25% factor for sabermetrics, and I think that will help determine the right player for the award more accurately. It might even raise in a few years.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

One Win Away



The Red Sox are a win away. John Lester and Adam Wainwright pulled out two great games, but ultimately it was Lester that would prevail. This game lacked the excitement as Games 3 and 4 had, but it was still great to watch. At times you wondered “Will David Ortiz ever get out?”, “Will Adam Wainwright strike out all 27?”, “Can the Cardinals come back and rattle Lester?”

Ok, the one with Wainwright striking out all 27 is just silly. But honestly, I was surprised that Ortiz only went 3-for-4, and at times it really looked like the Cardinals would end Lester’s bid for becoming one of the greatest pitchers in the postseason.

Runs were scored in the 1st, 4th, and 7th. In the 1st inning, Wainwright strikes out Jacoby Ellsbury looking at the beginning of the game, and Wainwright looked good. It was a great sign for the Cards, that they had their real ace tonight, and they wouldn’t deal with another Game 1 performance.

David OrtizBut then we speak too soon. Two doubles by Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz right after the K now put the Red Sox up 1-0. Now you start to think that we’re going to see the Game 1 Wainwright.

By the way, Ortiz came out saying that he is just good in October, that it’s “his time of the year.” He’s now batting .733 in the World Series, and now boasts a .476 average over three World Series appearances. Jeez.


Wainwright was able to calm down, and was able to strike out the next five batters he faced. This is where I laughed and said “Watch him get 27 strikeouts.” He calmed down in striking out batters, but still managed to pitch five more scoreless innings after the 1st.

While he is performing like he should, the Cardinals strike in the 4th. Matt Holliday bombs one into center field, and the game is tied. It’s his second of the World Series, and he is the only player to have hit one for St. Louis.

Carlos Beltran wanted part of the action too, so he drives one that looked like it would be gone in an instant. However, the big Busch Stadium kept it in the park, and instead of back-to-back, Jonny Gomes is able to catch it on the warning track.

Instead of a 2-1 Cards lead, it’s now just tied, and there are two outs. I still think Lester was a bit shaken up after Beltran though, and he got some help from his defense. 

Stephen Drew flashes the leather in Game 5, showing his value doesn't stem from his low postseason batting average.The play of the night had to go to SS Stephen Drew who, despite a terrible postseason batting average this year, has made some HUGE defensive plays for Boston. As Yadier Molina steps up to the plate, he lines one that looks like a single or even a double into the gap, but Drew leaps up and catches it. It was incredible.

I’ve come to notice that in almost every postseason series, there’s always one player that nobody notices at first, then he does something miraculous, then everyone goes nuts. Last year in the ALCS, it wasn’t Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder who stepped up, it was Delmon Young. In the NLCS that year, it wasn’t Buster Posey, it was Marco Scutaro. In last year’s World Series, Pablo Sandoval hit three home runs in one game; he only hit 12 in the 2012 season.

Two nights ago, it was Jonny Gomes who came in the clutch. Last night, though Ortiz and Pedroia had their moments, it was David Ross, the catcher that played 30 games in the regular season, who came in the clutch.

You have to give huge props to rookie Xander Bogaerts. I love talking about him, and I think that he’s a future star. He collected two hits in last night’s game, both were up the middle ground balls. His second hit, an infield hit, begins the Red Sox rally, and brings up Stephen Drew. Remember, I mentioned that Drew has been hitting quite poorly so far, so what does he revert to? Walking.

And that’s exactly what he does. He draws the first and only walk in the game, and now it’s first and second with one out. Stepping in is Dave Ross.

I told you that Ross only played 30 games before. Well he, like Drew, is not a very good hitter either. But sometimes it’s the bottom of the order that prevails. Ross collected two hits in the game, his first one being the funniest, and his second one being the most important.

Why was his first hit hilarious? Because when he reached 1st, he says to Red Sox first base coach Arnie Beyeler “Nice to meet you.” When asked about his hits to the press, Ross was surprised, admitting that he wasn’t a very good hitter.

David Ross’s RBI double gave the Red Sox a 2-1 lead in the seventh.All laughs aside, his second hit broke the game open. On a 2-2 pitch from Wainwright, Ross clubs a hanging curve down the left field line, and it would go into the stands for a double. It’s now 2-1 Boston, and they have men on 2nd and 3rd with two outs.

I think that both coaches pulled interesting moves after Ross. John Farrell decided to keep Lester in with a 2-1 lead and one out. Although the infield was moved in for the Cardinals, I think that was more of an intimidation effect. Lester previously failed on a bunt attempt earlier in the game, so they won’t squeeze.

Lester would end up grounding it right to Wainwright, and there are now two outs. They had to keep him in; he was pitching great, and had only 69 pitches so far. Keeping Lester in would prevail (see below).

Now here’s where I don’t like Mike Matheny’s play call. He decided to keep Wainwright it with the top of the order coming up. Ellsbury is the left-handed batter stepping up, and they have plenty of lefty relief if they need it. He decided to keep Wainwright in, and Ellsbury would bloop it into center for a base hit. A run scores, then Ross is out at a play at the plate.

3-1 Boston. Lester continues to fire, too. He would go 7 2/3 before giving the ball to their closer, Koji Uehara. This was another surprising move too by Farrell; instead of keeping the lefty Lester in against the lefty Matt Adams, he goes with the righty Uehara.


kozmabuntIt didn’t matter. Uehara has a .115 BAA against lefties, and he struck out Adams on three pitches.

Lester would finish giving up only one run on four hits and struck out seven. He also made another great defensive play, just like the one he did against Detroit. This time, the victim was Pete Kozma.

Uehara would pitch a scoreless ninth, and would get the save. He now has six saves in the postseason, which ties for most in postseason history, and is one shy of Mariano Rivera for most postseason 4-out saves.

Jon Lester Jon Lester has the 5th lowest career postseason ERA (minimum of 75 innings pitched) with a 2.11 ERA. That puts him up with guys like Mo Rivera, Christy Mathewson, and Bob Gibson.

It looks real good for Boston right now. They are going home, and look to clinch a World Series title at home since 1918.

John FarrellThey have to face the unhittable rookie Michael Wacha in Game 6, a pitcher that they lost to in Game 2. However, the Red Sox were able to get a two wins off Wainwright, two wins off Max Scherzer, a win off Justin Verlander, and a win off David Price. They are good against aces. The Cardinals, however, are 8-1 in postseason eliminating games since their recent surge.

If the Cardinals win Game 6, it’s ok for the Red Sox, but remember that they lost Game 3 too, and Game 7 would probably be a rematch of that game.

I like the Red Sox winning this series, but I think it’ll have to come in 7 Games. It’ll be John Lackey vs Michael Wacha in Game 6 tomorrow. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

Monday, October 28, 2013

The Red Sox Strike Back



Two crazy ways to end the game! Suddenly, the past two games have shifted this World Series from a mediocre one to one of the best.


David Ortiz lifted Uehara in celebration.
 
Many questions entered tonight, like how Clay Buchholz would perform, and if the Red Sox could bounce back after a wild night before. Just before the game, the Red Sox announced that OF Shane Victorino could not play because of back spasms. How would Allen Craig do after getting injured? Would Lance Lynn struggle like he has been?



All of these questions were answered in Game 4, and man was it wild. There were easy reasons why the Red Sox won this game, but they made some interesting moves that also helped them out. It all started with Clay Buchholz.

Buchholz was a gem in the regular season, but a neck injury sidelined him for 82 games. He finished going 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA nonetheless. In the postseason, he would continue to deal with injury, and, in three games, could go 16 innings. In last night’s game, Buchholz only went four innings, but gave up only three hits and an unearned run.

His stuff was not the same as the regular season, but he was able to keep the ball down. He forced a lot of ground balls that was able to get him out of innings. He never throws the same pitch twice, and was able to get the ball over. That’s all he needed in four innings.

Felix Doubront's contribution in Game 4 was paramount to the Red Sox win.
Felix Dubront would replace Buchholz, and he changed the game completely. Dubront was a starter in the regular season, and would retire the first eight batters that he faced. He would give up the second run, but by that time, the Red Sox were up anyways. 



Then here was the best part for the Sox pitching. In the 8th inning, instead of main set-up man Junichi Tazawa coming in, who pitched the last of the 7th, or have Koji Uehara pitch a 2-inning save, John Lackey comes in. Yes, the starter John Lackey, who started Game 2 for the Red Sox. Good move? Well, at first it looked like the wrong decision. But hey, he was able to pitch a scoreless 8th. Now the question is whether he will be able to pitch Game 6 still. I think he will be able to, but more on that later.

Like I mentioned before, Victorino was a late scratch of the lineup for Boston. Who would replace him? Their only option was Jonny Gomes, who was hitless in the World Series before this game.

His first at-bat was not a good start either. He grounds into a double play, and starter Lance Lynn would roll. But I noticed his 2nd plate appearance more than anything. It was an 11 pitch at-bat against Lynn, who had him down 0-2 after two called strikes. Gomes was able to walk. That was the key to this game; the Red Sox have some of the best eyes in the game, and they were able to wait patiently, even on really good pitches. Gomes and rookie Xander Bogaerts are the ones to watch when it comes to that.
Ortiz cheered once he reached second base.
 
When the 6th inning came, it was tied 1-1. It seemed like David Ortiz was the only one who had the will to win. He got the team together in the dugout, saying that it was their time now to strike. Ortiz, who is batting .727 in the World Series, went 3-for-3 last night.

They listened to him, that’s for sure. Lynn would give up a hit to Dustin Pedroia and a walk to Ortiz, then was replaced by Seth Maness. With two outs, in steps Jonny Gomes. He was the one to listen to Ortiz’s words, and came in when Red Sox nation needed him. On a 2-2 count (once again, he worked up the pitch count), he drives a hanging cutter into left field.

jonnygomesHRThe Red Sox now had a commanding 4-1 lead.

From there on out, it was Boston strong. Yes, the Cardinals were able to add another run, but each time they tried to threat, it was quickly wiped away. The best example came in the 9th inning.

A big question was how Allen Craig would do after the wild finish the night before. Though his running abilities were clearly depleted, his hitting capabilities would not. He comes on the pinch hit in the 9th, and, like the night before, would prevail off closer Koji Uehara.

The fact that Koji gave up a hit to anyone is pretty rare, but compiling TWO hits off him? That’s unheard of! Good work by Craig.

He hit a ball to the wall that should have been a double, but he would have been struck down if he tried. His running impairments surely showed, and he limped to first base with a single. So yes, despite injury, Craig can still hit. He’s now batting .444 in the World Series.

Kolten Wong would come on to pinch run for Craig, and that’s when things suddenly just stopped for the Cards. Koji was facing Carlos Beltran, who already had an RBI single earlier in the game. One crack of the bat could have tied the game.
Kolten Wong was picked off at first base for the last out. The Red Sox took a 4-2 win in Game 4.
 
Instead, Uehara catches Wong off guard at first, and picks him off. All of a sudden, the game was over, and the series is tied. The whole place was shocked. The camera didn’t even get to the whole play at first. It was such an amazing play by Uehara, a perfect read and a perfect throw to get Wong.

It’s the first postseason game ever where the game ended on a pickoff.

And that’s it. The Red Sox win, 4-2. This series is tied 2-2. No matter what, the series will finish in Boston. Game 5 will be a rematch of Game 1,  between Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals hope that Wainwright can bounce back from a disastrous Game 1 outing. I think he can; there’s a lot of difference between Busch Stadium and Fenway, as well as having home field advantage.

It might be just another 1-0 game, but I think the Cardinals can take the lead in the series tonight. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd