Sabermetric Stat: On Base + Slugging (OPS)

Hey there, let’s check out the sabermetric stat known as OPS, or On-base plus slugging.

First off, OPS is just OBP + SLG. That’s it.

 

While

Truthfully, I do not believe in OPS. OPS does not represent a complete idea of a player’s offensive capabilities and contributions. For example, OPS does not include on base running or stealing. In fact, OPS is very vague for a sabermetric, and doesn’t really have any meaning to it. It’s much easier to look at OBP and SLG separately. This is because OBP and SLG have two different roles, and OPS weights the two stats equally. 

OBP is more of a factor in scoring  runs (there is a strong positive linear relationship with OBP and runs scored). SLG just calculates a person’s ability to hit home runs or doubles (Barry Bonds has a career .607 SLG, while little David Eckstein has a career .355 SLG).

Let’s take the Oakland Athletics, for example. If you have seen the movie Moneyball, one thing that they capture really well from Billy Beane’s method of running a team is getting people on base (hence, On base percentage). He still does it today; the A’s team OBP is .329, which is the 6^th best in the Major Leagues. That’s good enough to get you as an above .500 team. Their slugging percentage is .399, which is 17^th in the MLB. OPS would just combine the two, so they’d be 11^th in OPS.  Yet they still post a 38-27 record. They are not the 11^th best team, they are more like the 6^th best team.  You decide which one is more important, and if OPS would even make a factor. 

Right now Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera, and Troy Tulowitzki are the top OPS players with 1.095, 1.091, and 1.073, respectively. All three of them are up for the MVP in their respective leagues. The highest OBP is Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo with .446, .444, and .433, respectively. That means that for every time they step up to the plate, they will reach a base 44% of the time, which is very, very good. The top sluggers are Chris Davis, Troy Tulowitzki, and Miguel Cabrera, with .684, .654, and .647 respective averages. 

Besides Miguel Cabrera, who is probably the best hitter in the world right now, the other leaders were different. Chris Davis and Troy Tulowitzki both have high OBP as well, but Votto and Choo have a lower SLG. Votto has a respectful .508 SLG, and Choo with a much different .484 SLG. These are still good averages, which explains their high productive performance.

 

The averages are close together, but SLG and OBP deviate a lot from player to player. Look at Domonic Brown, who has a .596 SLG but a .329 OBP. I still think that OPS is not a good stat to look at, but it can be beneficial in a way. 

Other sabermetric stats, such as wOBA (I’ll write about this next week) use linear weights to avoid OPS flaws. The OPS for all MLB is around .750. Here’s a good scale for it:

A	Great	.9000 and Higher
B	Very Good	.8333 to .8999
C	Above Average	.7667 to .8333
D	Average	.7000 to .7666
E	Below Average	.6334 to .6999
F	Poor	.5667 to .6333
G	Atrocious	.5666 and Lower

Babe Ruth has the highest OPS with 1.1638, but Albert Pujols has the highest among active players with 1.0264. Check out OPS+ too, it’s basically OPS X 100. 

That’s it for OPS. Believe it, or hate it. Any questions, comments, or concerns? Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com.

-Evan Boyd

“Baseball keeps copious records, and people talk about them and argue about them and think about them a great deal.  Why doesn't anybody use them?  Why doesn’t anybody say, in the face of this contention or that one, "Prove it?" – Michael Lewis quoting Bill James.

Power Rankings 6 10 13

Power Rankings! 

1.      Cardinals: 41-22

Last Week: 1

ESPN Rank: 1

Yadier Molina is showing that he’s the best catcher by having a .354/.394/.493, even though he served that suspension. The Cards have the best pitching and a solid offense, and just took 2 of 3 from the Reds. They really can’t be beat. 

2.      Braves: 39-24

Last Week: 7

ESPN Rank: 3

Sweeping the Pirates and taking 3 of 4 from the Nationals is the reason for the big jump. Right now they have no trouble in taking the NL East.

3.      Red Sox: 39-25

Last Week: 4

ESPN Rank: 2

The Red Sox have a tough week ahead, playing the red hot Rays, then having a four game series with the Orioles. They’re going to need to win at least 4 of the 7 to try and stay in first place of the AL East.

4.      A’s: 38-27

Last Week: 5

ESPN Rank: 4

Bartolo Colon has been hot like the rest of the team, having a 1.50 ERA in his last 5 starts. They should be worried though with him since he was on the Miami list. Yoenis Cespedes has been a great young player though, he’s leading the team with 13 homers. 

5.      Rangers: 37-25

Last Week: 2

ESPN Rank: 6

Not surprised that the A’s have come back to a half game back from the Rangers. They are slowly losing it, which is why I have the A’s ahead of them. In June, they’ve only hit .209 with a .286 OBP in June. That’s good for the Marlins, but not for the Rangers.

6.      Reds: 37-26

Last Week: 3

ESPN Rank: 5

Cincy has an amazing starting rotation, with Jhonny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, and Bronson Arroyo. However, their bullpen has stunk it up this past week, giving up 23 runs in 18.2 innings. That’s so surprising when they have Aroldis Chapman, Sam LeCure, Jonathan Broxton, and J.J. Hoover in the ‘pen. 

7.      Pirates: 37-26

Last Week: 6

ESPN Rank: 8

Jeff Locke continues to be dazzling as he’s 5-1 with a 2.39 ERA. Their closer, Jason Grilli, is like Fernando Rodney last year: he has a .98 ERA with 23 saves, and a 14.96 K/9 ratio. Aaaaah! Get some more from their offense and they could be the top team in the Central, but it’s too tough of a division to even try. 

8.      Yankees: 37-26

Last Week: 11

ESPN Rank: 9

Good for the Yankees for coming back after a small downfall in the rankings. Mo Rivera looks as good as always, being tied in the league with 23 saves. Also congrats to Andy Pettite for his 250^th career win. I don’t know if he’s hall of fame worthy, but what an amazing career nonetheless. 

9.      D-Backs: 35-28

Last Week: 8

ESPN Rank: 10

I know everyone can’t stop talking about him, but how can you not? Paul Goldschmidt is batting .431 with a .914 slugging % with runners in scoring position. Right now it’s between him and Troy Tulowitzki in the NL MVP Race.

10.  Tigers: 35-26

Last Week: 12

ESPN Rank: 7

There’s Justin Verlander, and Anibal Sanchez, but how about Max Scherzer? He has the 3^rd most strikeouts and has a .185 batting average against. And there’s no problem with their offense, being possibly the best statistically, as well as having Miguel Cabrera play better than last year, which I thought wasn’t possible.

11.  Orioles: 35-28

Last Week: 9

ESPN Rank: 12

Luckily the O’s have the best slugging percentage in baseball, because their pitching rotation is one of the worst in the league. This week they play the Angels and the Red Sox, both at home. Their 15-13 record at home won’t put them up much this week, as they are 3.5 games back from the Red Sox.

12.  Rays: 34-28

Last Week: 10

ESPN Rank: 11

Just when the Rays pitching starts to come together, when Alex Cobb is throwing lights out, and David Price coming back by the end of the month, Matt Moore decides to suck and get crushed by teams. Don’t worry, Rays fans. Matt Moore got rocked by one of the best offenses in the league, the Orioles, and he doesn’t have to face the Red Sox this week. He needs to get back on track, but with Cobb having a 2.35 ERA, there’s no need to worry. 

13.  Giants: 33-29

Last Week: 14

ESPN Rank: 14

One of my favorite players, Marco Scutaro, is batting over .400 since the month of May. It’s not often when someone is hitting in their prime when they are 37 years old. But that’s what the Giants have: random guys that can play the game. Take Barry Zito, for example. He hasn’t pitched as well since his miraculous ’02 year, but his postseason pitching has always been spectacular. When you’re on a playoff team like the Giants, it helps a lot. I still do think that this team can get into the playoffs, but they do need to be more than only 4 games over .500.

14.  Rockies: 34-30

Last Week: 15

ESPN Rank: 13

Frankly there is no difference between the Giants and the Rockies right now in record, but I give props to the Rockies for keeping pace with the D-Backs and Giants. It helps when you have a plus 36 run differential, as well as being 21-16 in the NL West. What also helps is having a guy like Troy Tulowitzki, who is batting over .350 and is one of the best defensive shortstop in the game. 

15.  Phillies: 31-33

Last Week: 18

ESPN Rank: 15

Before losing 3 in a row, the Phillies went on a tear that put them in 2^nd place in the NL East. Watch them try to buy some players at the deadline, and watch those players not be able to put the Phils in a playoff position. But they do have Domonic Brown, who has carried the team in hitting with his 19 HR's. watch out for him, he's only 25 years old.

16.  Indians: 30-32

Last Week:

ESPN Rank: 16

The Tribe have lost 7 in a row, yet they are still in 2^nd place in the Central. Detroit is starting to pull away now, and Cleveland cannot keep up. 

17.  Nats: 31-31

Last Week: 16

ESPN Rank: 17

The Nationals’ offense is really starting to click, but my god somebody needs to tell them that they’re not a .500 team and should start playing better ball. That is all. 

18.  Padres: 29-34

Last Week: 17

ESPN Rank: 19

Evereth Cabrera leads the league again in steals, but this time he’s batted much more. Right now he has a WAR of 2.7 and is a top candidate in the all-star ballot. Expect him and Jedd Gyorko to be a dominating force in the later years. 

19.  Royals: 28-32

Last Week: 28

ESPN Rank: 18

The Royals? What? They’ve won their last 7 of 10, and are almost back to .500. It might be because they hired a new hitting coach, but also is because their pitching has been stellar. They might be streaky, but right now they are hot. 

20.  Twins: 27-33

Last Week: 19

ESPN Rank: 20

The Twins have lots of potential in their farm system, and have moved out of last place in the AL Central, but they still need to improve their pitching rotation. Vance Worley has had 10 starts, and has only gotten 1 win. 

21.  Dodgers: 27-35

Last Week: 22

ESPN Rank: 21

Who is Yasiel Puig? He is the next big thing in L.A. Check out my blog on him from a couple of days ago and you’ll see why. Not only can he hit for power and contact, but he can gun a man out from right field on a fly. 

22.  Cubs: 25-35

Last Week: 20

ESPN Rank: 25

After winning 5 games in a row, the Cubs split with the Angels and lost the series to the Pirates. They are now 1-5 against Pittsburgh, and continue to struggle in games against opponents above .500. They did, however, gain some power in the draft by selecting the 2^nd overall draft pick, Kris Bryant.

23.  Angels: 27-36

Last Week: 21

ESPN Rank: 22

This week, the Angels have to go through both the Yankees and the Orioles. Now is the time where America’s bandwagon team falls down even more. 

24.  Mariners: 27-37

Last Week: 25

ESPN Rank: 24

Hisashi Iwakuma and King Felix have a combined 2.23 ERA. They just might be the best duo in the American League. But when only 3 starters bat over .250, you’re gonna have a bad time.

25.  Blue Jays: 27-35

Last Week: 24

ESPN Rank: 23

What was expected in the offseason was that reigning Cy Young pitcher R.A. Dickey would be the Blue Jays’ best pitcher. What they didn’t expect: him having only 5 wins with a 4.66 ERA. However, their bullpen has been stellar.

26.  White Sox: 27-34

Last Week: 23

ESPN Rank: 26

After losing 8 in a row, the White Sox pulled out a victory in 16 innings. Unfortunately, they’re playing the hottest team in baseball, the Oakland Athletics. They have dropped to last place in arguably the worst division in baseball, as well as forming what is becoming the worst offense in the American League.

27.  Brewers: 25-37

Last Week: 27

ESPN Rank: 27

After a pretty good start, the Brewers have just lost it. After the alleged suspensions with Ryan Braun and steroid usage, they may lose their best player too.

28.  Mets: 23-35

Last Week: 26

ESPN Rank: 28

The Mets have given the Marlins 8 of their 18 wins. How? I don’t know. Something needs to change with that.

29.  Astros: 22-42

Last Week: 29

ESPN Rank: 29

They played better ball this past week, but now have lost 4 in a row. They need pitching, that’s for sure, but they just received the #1 draft pick, Mark Appel. Appel is a hard throwing righty who people are comparing to Mark Prior. It was kind of a surprise pick for the ‘stros, but a good pick. He could be pitching at the end of next year and be a good starter in 2015.

30.  Marlins: 18-44

Last Week: 30

ESPN Rank: 30

Good for the Marlins in beating the Mets in 20 innings. However, it seems like the Mets are the only team the Marlins can beat. That’s a problem. Another problem: their best batting average with a minimum of games played is Juan Pierre, batting .238.

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

“Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?” –Jim Bouton

Who's Hot/Who's Not 6 7 13

Hey there, if you read my blog earlier about Yasiel Puig, then you’d be proud of me! Yesterday, Puig hit a grand slam to help Zack Greinke with an easy victory. Looks like this guy has potential!

Anyways, happy Friday, happy National Doughnut Day, and happy birthday to my brother, Andy. Let’s look at who’s hot and who’s not in baseball.

Who's Hot:

 

 Domonic Brown (OF): You’re going to have to remember this name for a long time. The 25 year old is one of the main reasons why Philadelphia is in 2^nd place now (even though they’re barely .500 J). This week he has batted .444 with 5 homers and 12 RBIs. So far his bat has carried through with power, as he is the leader in homers in the National League with 18 homers. He has lots of power, and reminds me of Ryan Howard. That’s just what this organization needs.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury (OF): Just recently (not this week I don’t think), Ellsbury stole 5 bases in one game. He’s not on track to have 70 steals like he did before, but his speed is back. He has also batted .484 in the past 7.

 

Paul Goldschmidt (1B): AHH! He’s so good! Goldschmidt continues to be an MVP favorite. In the last 7 he’s batted .310 with only 2 homers, but 13 RBI’s. He has the best WAR among position players with 3.7, and currently bats .333 with 14 HR and 54 RBI’s. 

 

Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez (SS, OF): These two for the Rockies have had great hitting to accompany their 32-29 record (they need better pitching). Tulowitzki has batted .355 in the last 7 and is currently batting .340, while Carlos Gonzalez has clubbed four homers in the last seven games, and has 17 Home runs on the season. Their WAR numbers are  3.3 and 3.2, respectively.

Cliff Lee (SP): Cliff Lee has suddenly brought back the Phillies into a contending team. His last 3 have been 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA, and has struck out 24. Right now he is 7-2 with a 2.45 ERA, which is much better than his start last year. As usual though, his K/BB ratio is great, which is 5.69.

Shelby Miller (SP): If Clayton Kershaw wasn’t pitching so damn well, Shelby Miller might just be the best Cy Young Candidate for the NL. But of course, there are so many pitchers to choose from this year. In his last two starts, Miller threw 13 innings, struck out 16, and posted a 1.38 ERA. He even helped the offense by hitting a home run in yesterday’s game. Right now he is 7-3 with an MLB best 1.91 ERA, and has a WAR of 3.2. He also can be a reliever according to Yahoo Fantasy Baseball, which would help your pitching rotation!

 

Hisashi Iwakuma (SP): Watch out for him, I might just make him my next potential player. He is 32 years old, but him and King Felix are a deadly combo in Seattle. His last two starts have been scoreless, pitching 15.2 and striking out 10. Right now he has a 1.94 ERA, and is 6-1. His WAR is 3.8, which for some reason is not recognized on Baseball Reference. I love watching Japanese pitchers, because there are some very good players in the MLB that are unrecognized. Iwakuma is just one of them. 

Aroldis Chapman (RP): He’s 7 for 7 in his last save opportunities, and has started to pitch like he usually does: scary. His 100 mph heater has went through every team, including the hard hitting Rockies. He has a 2.42 ERA with 15 saves. 

Congrats to those that are hot, but let’s look at who’s not.

Clint Barmes (SS, 2B): While the Pirates are hot, Barmes is not. He’s batted .136 with only 1 RBI in the past 7, and is just over .200 on the season. 

Ronny Cedeno (SS): I’ve always hated Cedeno, so seeing this makes me smile. He’s batted .136 in the last 7, and has a WAR of -.2 on the season. He’s never been able to drive in runs, as shown by his mere 9 RBI’s this season.

Alejandro Ramos (RP): As a Marlin, this might be a good ERA, I dunno. This season he has a 4.85 ERA, but in his last 7 he’s had an 8.64 ERA and has had 7 walks. In his last outing, he gave up 5 ER and received the loss.

Ian Kennedy (SP): Something is wrong with Kennedy, he usually is not like this. I think there might be a problem with his arm. It might explain his 5.72 ERA and getting crushed by both the Cardinals and the Cubs. Yesterday he gave up 10 runs, including giving up 5 homers, one of which was to the pitcher.

Think someone else should have been put on either list? Then just let me know! Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions, comments, concerns, or just to say hey.

-Evan Boyd

“How about a little fire scarecrow!” – The Wicked Witch of the West

(I thought it’d be appropriate for those that are hot in baseball now).

Potential Player: Yasiel Puig

Hey you Dodgers fans! There’s a big prospect that you need to look out for in the future. In fact, the entire Major Leagues should watch out for him. Just added this week, let’s take a look at OF Yasiel Puig.

 

Yasiel Puig is a Cuban OF who signed a seven year, $42 million dollar contract with the Dodgers (note, soon a lot of these Cuban players will start showing up, such as Cubs’ Jorge Soler). He just made his MLB debut this past Monday, and boy has he been tearing it up.

Right now he is batting .417 with a .375 BABIP, and a WAR of .3. Now of course, he’s not going to bat .417 the entire season, nor probably have a .375 BABIP. Remember, things still have to regress towards the mean. But the fact that the guy hit two home runs in one game for the Dodgers does show some life for the team that overspent on washed guys. Prospects like these are the things that the Dodgers need to look for.

What I liked from him is his amazing defense. Against the Padres, Puig had a catch on the warning track, and threw out the guy at first ON A FLY. Yeah, that’s what I like to see from a Right Fielder.

People are comparing him to Bo Jackson. That’s crap. Bo Jackson was an amazing, talented athlete that could be put down as one of the greats (even though his baseball career was just ok). Others compare him to Vladimir Guerrero. I still think that’s a stretch, Vlad was one of the best Dominican Republic players to ever play the game.

After seeing that amazing throw from right field, I’d like to compare him to Jim Edmonds. Edmonds, who is most well known for playing with the Cardinals, had a lot of power, but also had one of the best arms baseball has ever seen.

It’s tough to figure out how a player is going to do when he’s only played since Monday. Based on my calculations, I say that he can be a .272 hitter who can club around 25 to 30 homers a year. It’s not the great Puig that everyone wants, but those numbers are not so bad, especially with such great defense. He could rack up a WAR of 5 or 6 in his prime years and be a 4 or 5 time all-star.

That’s my feeling about him. I’d like to see this guy thrive, I really do. I’m not even a Dodgers fan, but I’d like to see them recover from a terrible acquisition last season (yes, I do think that getting everyone from the Red Sox was a terrible idea). Maybe he can bring this team out of last place, even.

The Dodgers have one of the best pitchers in the game, Clayton Kershaw. They should be doing much better. But hey, with a guy like Yasiel Puig, they could be getting back on track.

Have any questions, comments, or concerns? Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com.

-Evan Boyd

“I don’t have to get a pitch down the middle. If I like the pitch – even if it’s 15 inches off the plate, and that’s the pitch I wanted – I’m swinging” – Vladimir Guerrero