Sabermetric Special- Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS)

Hey hey, let’s look at this week’s sabermetric special on Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS).

DIPS measures a pitcher’s value or effectiveness based on statistics that does not involve the fielders (hence “defense independent”). For example, DIPS focuses on home runs allowed, strikeout/walk ratios, and then fly ball, ground ball, and line drive percentages. The type of pitch is a factor in how the percentages change, but DIPS focuses on what the percentages really are, not how they were really formed.

There isn’t a formula for DIPS exactly, but sabermetrician Voros McCracken invented a formula for “Defense-Independent ERA” (dERA) for the statistic. It’s not really an equation, but rather a series of steps that you must do to calculate it. If you’re interested, google the steps. 

Here is an alternative formula made by Clay Dreslough called Defense-Independent Component ERA  (DICE):

 

Where HR is home runs, BB is walks, HBP is hit batters, K is strikeouts, and IP is innings pitched. That equation gives a number that is good at predicting a pitcher’s ERA the following year rather than the current year’s ERA.

Now with this statistic, it can get sort of complicated with pitchers. Like I said before, the type of pitch matters for DIPS, so a crazy pitch like a knuckleball or a screwball will be much different to face with a normal hitter. That’s why dERA is just not good with knuckleballers. It was tough to determine Tim Wakefield’s ERA (though Wakefield almost always had an ERA a little above 4). 

Don’t worry, though. Even with crazy pitchers like Wakefield, DIPS is still accepted in today’s baseball standards. Currently the lowest DIPS number belongs to Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals, with a 1.99 DIPS. Anibal Sanchez of Detroit is second with a 2.12 DIPS. Only 15 pitchers have a DIPS of under 3.00, 11 of those 15 have ERA’s under 3, and 7 of them play for either the Tigers or the Cardinals. Maybe that’s why both of them are in first place in their division.

That’s about it for this week’s sabermetric special. Have any questions, comments, or concerns? Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com.

-Evan Boyd

“I like to feel that I understand little things about sports” – Bill James

Power Rankings- 6 3 13

Hey there, I’m going to post my power rankings for this week, as well as have my A Look Through The Week later on tonight.

A week of interleague play and some other great matchups made a pretty big change in my rankings. I have my last week’s ranking, as well as ESPN’s ranking of them. Let’s take a look.

1.      Cardinals- 37-19

Last Week: 2

ESPN Rank: 1

Without a doubt, the Cards are the best team. They have the highest run differential, as well as the best ERA in baseball. Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn have a combined 15 wins for the team already, and Shelby Miller posts a 1.82 ERA. Randy Choate and Edward Mujica have been solid in the bullpen too. They are also 20-9 on the road, the best road record in baseball. Unfortunately for them, they still are competing in one of the top divisions in the game. Another weird flaw: Wainwright has a .309 BABIP, which has to be lowered in case that the Cardinals Defense does screw up. 

2.      Rangers- 35-21

Last Week: 1

ESPN Rank: 2

The Rangers now have a challenge in their division with the A’s, but they have the pitching that can compete with any team. Even their bullpen has stepped up big. Robbie Ross, Tanner Scheppers, and closer Joe Nathan have a combined 1.29 ERA. Not bad at all. 

3.      Reds- 35-22

Last Week: 4

ESPN Rank: 3

Cincinnati has a 20-7 record at home. Why? Because OBP is a huge stat, and Joey Votto and Shin Soo-Choo are the leaders in OBP. And not only because Votto and Choo have a 2.7 WAR, but also because they have so many starting weapons that Dusty Baker can choose from. With Johnny Cueto back as well, this team will just get better and better. 

4.      Red Sox- 35-23

Last Week: 5

ESPN Rank: 4

The Bo Sox are trying to pull away from the toughest division in baseball, but with three other teams competing for first, they will have to have quite a season to try and keep up. I personally think they can, which is why I had them winning the division in my preseason rankings. If they keep hitting as well as they are, and if Clay Buckholz can keep it up, I have no doubt that they can win it. 

5.      A’s- 34-24

Last Week: 14

ESPN Rank: 7

Why did the A’s have such a big jump? Because all they needed to do was get back on track. They also had a pretty easy schedule, playing Houston and the White Sox. What was the surprise was taking 3 of 4 against the Giants, even going against some of their toughest pitchers. They need to hit better, but they are still getting on base, which is always a great start, especially when focus baseball statistically. 

6.      Pirates- 35-22

Last Week: 7

ESPN Rank: 6

Unlike the past few years, the Pirates have showed no sign of slowing down. This week they took four of seven against the Tigers and the Reds, which is more than almost any team can say. They have a mediocre offense this year, even with Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte (watch out for that Rookie!), but like the other teams in the NL Central, they have a dominant pitching core. They’re even pulling a pitching staff that’s heavily relied of statistics- having pitchers like A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, who have always been under the radar in their careers. Watch out for Jeff Locke too- leading the team with a 2.25 ERA. It’s tough to see whether they will continue playing like this when they have an offense that is not in the top 20 in any categories.

7.      Braves- 34-22

Last Week: 6

ESPN Rank: 5

I may be the only one to think that the Braves are slowly losing it. They’ve played .500 ball ever since that amazing start. They have probably the 4^th best pitching staff, but they have injuries that are slowly killing them. Justin Upton has slowed down, but Freddie Freeman has come to save the day in hitting. If Mike Minor and Paul Maholm keep pitching as well, then they have a chance, but having Kris Medlen going 1-6 is hurting. Their next series is against the Pirates, and I can see them losing that series, but then they are on the road against the Dodgers and then the Padres. If they can’t win those games, then they will fall out of first.

8.      D-Backs- 32-24

Last Week: 10

ESPN Rank: 11

Patrick Corbin is now 9-0 with a 2.06 ERA, which is absolutely incredible. I would have wrote about him last week, but I couldn’t just write about the two best D-Backs players for the first two weeks of my blog. Don’t worry, Corbin is still good, and Paul Goldschmidt is still batting like a champ. But they need guys like Wade Miley to step up. Miley has now lost his last four starts in a row. 

9.      O’s- 32-25

Last Week: 15

ESPN Rank: 9

 

Wei-Yin Chen needs to return, but lately their starting pitching has been doing well, though the statistics do not show it. Check out my blog from last week to see how Chris Davis may be playing better than Miguel Cabrera, and how he may be the one to stop him from winning two Triple Crowns in a row.

 

10.  Rays: 31-25

Last Week: 16

ESPN Rank: 12

Good for the Rays! They’re one team that’s actually improved of late. They went 18-10 in May, which was the best in the AL. They have relied on their hitting which has proved them well, but David Price needs to step up if he wants to help this team, or if the Rays want to trade him at the all-star break since his contract expires soon.

11.  Yankees- 31-25

Last Week: 3

ESPN Rank: 10

The Yankees have now lost their last 7 of 8, hit only .217, and are slowly losing contention from Boston and Baltimore, and lately, the Rays as well. It’s ironic that Curtis Granderson, Kevin Youkilis, and Mark Texiera have returned and they’ve done worse, but no Jeter and no A-Rod is tough. They need to hit much better if they want to contend.

12.  Tigers- 30-25

Last Week: 9

ESPN Rank: 8

This last week, the Tigers were shut out a bunch against the Pirates, yet they are still the top in the AL Central. Looks like the Tigers get lucky again in being in the worst division in baseball. They really should have a better record though. They have one of the best offenses in the league led by, of course, Miguel Cabrera, and even their pitching staff is top 10. Jim Leyland is a great coach too, so why are they only 5 games up? Because they have a really tough schedule. They just played the Pirates and the Orioles, and now have the red hot Rays and the Indians coming up. They need to step up so that they stay in first and don’t lose it to Cleveland.

13.  Indians- 30-26

Last Week: 8

ESPN Rank: 13

Ubaldo Jimenez has a 2.32 ERA on the road, but a 7.53 ERA at home. How? I dunno. But the Indians have been struggling lately and need to step it up if they want to beat Detroit. They have the Yankees, then they have the Tigers. If they can get some support from their pitching, then they could have something special this week. Mark Reynolds may be the team’s leader in homers and RBI’s, but also is leading in strikeouts. No surprise, but having inconsistency like that is tough to handle.

14.  Giants- 30-27

Last Week: 13

ESPN Rank: 14

Having Pablo Sandoval, Angel Pagan, and Ryan Vogelsong all on the DL hurts (no pun intended). Their main problem might be the fact that they have a -14 in run differential. The defending champions need to step it up if they want any contention against Arizona.

15.  Rockies- 30-27

Last Week: 11

ESPN Rank: 15

If the Rockies want to contend with the D-Backs and Giants this year, then they must step it up on the road. Having a small ballpark in Colorado helps, but they are 3 games under .500 on the road this year. This month they go on the road against Cincinnati, Boston, Washington, and Toronto. I don’t see them beating out the others this month, which is going to kill them.

16.  Nats- 28-29

Last Week: 12

ESPN Rank: 16

They need to get on base- they have the worse OBP (.287). They also just need to hit. They’re 28^th in Batting Average (.229) and 27^th in slugging percentage (.371). Luckily they have guys like Jordan Zimmerman, who has been the best pitcher for them, and of course Strasburg and Gonzalez, but being 1 game under .500 at this time is atrocious for a team like this.

17.  Padres- 26-30

Last Week: 22

ESPN Rank: 17

The Padres are not that good of a team, both on offense and pitching statistically. But I swear if they kept some of their prospects over the past few years like Anthony Rizzo, Jake Peavy, and Mat Latos, they could really be a contending team. But that’s not how their organization runs, unfortunately. This week they are on the road against the Dodgers and the Rockies, and they are 10-16 on the road. Let’s see if they can take advantage of these teams and pull out some wins.

18.  Phillies- 27-30

Last Week: 18

ESPN Rank: 19

Do you remember when the Phillies won over 100 games? That was only 2 years ago. They are playing .500 ball lately, but their pitching allowed 5.6 runs per game last week. How were they able to win some? Ask Domonic Brown, who batted over .400 and hit 7 homers last week. He and Cliff Lee are carrying this team, but baseball is different from other sports- you can’t have one player rule the season.

19.  Twins- 25-29

Last Week: 28

ESPN Rank: 21

The fact that they recently lost ten games in a row and are still only 4 games under .500 is pretty damn good. They’ve won 7 of their past 9 and are now a contender in the AL Central. I don’t think they will pull any dramatic upset over the Tigers or Indians, but hey, good for them for coming back after a tough stretch.

20.  Cubs- 23-32

Last Week: 25

ESPN Rank: 23

You might be surprised to hear that the Cubs are the only team under .500 with a positive run differential. They also just went on a 5 game winning streak before getting stopped by the D-Backs. But in those 5 games, they didn’t just win games- they killed their opponents. Not only did the offense average 7 runs a game, but they also were giving up little to their opponents. This might explain why opponents are batting only .236 against the Cubs. Chicago is due for another title, and if the Hawks don’t win it this year, the Cubs actually might be the next team in the city to win one. They have the weapons to slowly do it, and that’s what Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein are trying to do.

21.  Angels- 25-32

Last Week: 17

ESPN Rank: 18

The Angels had a quick stretch of wins, but have now slowed down. They’ve lost their last three in a row, and it will be interesting to see their matchup versus the Cubs this week. The return of Jered Weaver will help SO much, but like the Cubs, their bullpen needs to improve. 

 

22.  Dodgers- 23-32

Last Week: 26

ESPN Rank: 22

I was honestly mesmerized when I saw Hyun-Jin Ryu pitch a 2 hit shutout over the Angels last week, but they need more than that. They are 28^th in runs scored this year. That needs to change. And they can’t just rely on their big names that have huge contracts, they need statistical players to change their game. Clayton Kershaw is still a tank though, don’t worry. 

23.  White Sox- 24-30

Last Week: 19

ESPN Rank: 20

The White Sox did not win a single game last week, and are now 6 games under .500. Sorry White Sox fans, or lack thereof, being 29^th in runs (186), 27^th in batting average (.237), 28^th OBP (.289), and 28^th in slugging percentage (.369) sucks, and it won’t bring them to a .500 record.

24.  Blue Jays- 24-33

Last Week: 21

ESPN Rank: 26

With the Rays now contending in the AL East, the Jays are the only bad team in that division. They have tons of injuries, but they can’t have a 4.70 ERA. Their pitching is just bad, they need to change something.

25.  Mariners- 24-33

Last Week: 23

ESPN Rank: 25

Watch out for Nick Franklin, a top prospect that hit two homers and had a high OBP. But Tom Wilhelmsen blew two saves that could have helped the Mariners be only 5 games under .500. Hisashi Iwakuma is killing too, with a 2.13 ERA. He and King Felix are great, but their offense needs to improve.

26.  Mets- 22-32

Last Week: 27

ESPN Rank: 27

Matt Harvey only has one decision in his past 8 starts. They have the worst batting average in the majors, and one of the worst team ERA’s in the majors. I don’t know what they can really do to improve. They need Johan Sanatana back. They had a sweep against the Yankees, which people are taking way to seriously, because they then got swept by the Marlins. Ha.

27.   Brewers- 21-34

Last Week: 24

ESPN Rank: 28

After a hot start for the crew, they had a horrible month of May, going 6-22. I doubt they can improve back to a solid contender in the tough NL Central, but they still have young talent like Jean Segura, Carlos Gomez, and Norichika Aoki. These guys are really talented and can take over the team with Braun in the next few years.

28.  Royals- 23-31

Last Week: 20

ESPN Rank: 24

 

21 losses in the past 27 games. Why? They can’t hit this year whatsoever, they need to score more runs.

29.  Astros- 20-37

Last Week: 29

ESPN Rank: 29

Jason Castro has been hitting .282 with seven home runs and 15 doubles. He is their probably lone all-star contender. They have young talent, but I personally think that that talent won’t do them justice.

30.  Marlins- 16-41

Last Week: 30

ESPN Rank: 30

Somehow, they swept the Mets. Even if it’s the Mets, I had no idea how that happened. They snapped a nine game losing streak with those wins. Just imagine a team that can lose 116 games. That’s what Miami will do.

So that’s the rankings. As you can see, there was some change this week, and expect that this year. Watch teams like the Nationals to slowly rise, while the Yankees to fall.

-Evan Boyd

“Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand.” – Leo Durocher

Thursday's Team: Baltimore Orioles

Hi everybody. I’m really sorry that I have not updated this in the past two days, but I had prom stuff. But now that that is over, it’s time to look at baseball! Let’s pretend that today is Thursday, so let’s look at this week’s Thursday Team: The Baltimore Orioles.

Right now the O’s are 31-24, and are 3^rd in the tough AL East. One of the main reasons why I picked them for this week is because of their amazing offense. They have potentially the best offense in the league, being 1^st in runs (280) and slugging percentage (.464!) and are 2^nd in batting average (.275). We know about Adam Jones and his ability to hit for solid contact and play well defensively.

The best hitter for the O’s right now though is Chris Davis. 

Davis is a 27 year old who has spent his years in Texas and Baltimore. He was unaware to the public eye until this year, even though he belted 33 homers and had a .501 slugging percentage. But why was he unaware? Because last year he only walked 37 times, struck out 169 times, and has had a .326 OBP (which turns out to be his career OBP too). Things have changed for him a little this year. His slugging percentage is an astounding .749, and is the league leader in homers with 19. He has already walked 29 times, which is an improvement from last year, but strikes out just as much. 

Davis is their leader in hitting, but they still have some other weapons, such as Jones, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, Nick Markakis, and Nate McLouth. Davis, however, is probably the only one up for an MVP candidacy. 

They have these weapons, but what’s keeping them out of first place is their pitching. Yes, they have Jim Johnson, who as we saw last year can be deadly, but he still posts a 4.85 ERA. Other relievers like Pedro Strop and Troy Patton should be doing much better, but luckily they have Tommy Hunter and Darren O’Day. 

Their starting pitching needs some work. Their best starter posts a 4.26 ERA. They recently added Jair Jurrjens, who has only had one outing thus far. He went 5 innings, giving up 6 runs. Jair has not been as good as he has been, but can still be helpful. 

Historically, the O’s usually have relied on their hitting rather than pitching. It all started when they traded pitcher Milt Pappas to the Reds (who eventually went to the Cubs and threw a no hitter), in exchange for outfielder Frank Robinson. Robinson went on to win the MVP the next year, as well as the Triple Crown. He is still the only player to win MVP in both leagues. They went on to sweep the Dodgers in 1966 World Series. The end of the sixties was amazing for the Orioles, winning 109 games in 1969 and having Mike Cuellar share the Cy Young Award. They would win it again in 1970 and 1983. 

Then, of course, Cal Ripken came to Baltimore, who may be the most famous Oriole of all time. “Iron Man” could do everything – he could hit, he could homer, he could defend. He also was an all-star 19 times. In 1995, he broke Lou Gehrig’s consecutive games streak of 2,130, in one of the best baseball moments of the 20^th century. He would go on playing 2,632 straight games, finally resting on September 20, 1998 against the Yankees. 

Ever since Ripken retired, the O’s started to fall, posting some of the worst years in their organization. However, just last year, Baltimore pulled off what seemed to be a surprise in taking the wild card berth, then beating the Rangers in the play-in game.

This team is good, but not as good as last year. Statistically and sabermetrically (I might have just made up that word), the Orioles will go 74-88 this year. That was a preseason pick, however, and are proving that wrong with their record. Let’s just hope they don’t pull another ’05 season when they went 32-60 in the last half (and ironically finished 74-88 too). 

A great fan base, a great team, and an amazing history. You can’t go wrong with rooting for the O’s. That’s my team for today, check out my Who’s Hot/ Not either today or tomorrow, depending on how much time I have. Don’t worry, I will be back on track soon.

Have any questions/comments/concerns? Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com.

-Evan Boyd

The Oriole Way: “Perfect Practice Makes Perfect!” – Cal Ripken, Sr.