On to 2014

Thanks for a great 2013, and on to 2014! A new year means a new blog, so check out my new link here. 

Thanks for reading in 2013, and I hope you continue to read in 2014.

-Evan Boyd

A Christmas Miracle! Tanaka is US Bound!

Nobody had any idea of whether Masahiro Tanaka was going to be posted to the United States after a $20 million posting agreement. It looked like his Japanese team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, were going to keep him for at least one more year.

But it’s a Christmas Miracle for us! Tanaka will be coming to the US, and Rakuten has reversed their decision. With the $20 million posting agreement, this means that MLB teams will first have to spend $20 million as a starting big to negotiate with Tanaka before bidding any higher. Before, there was no limit.

Expect almost every team to bid $20 million in order to talk to the best free agent pitcher on the market. With Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jacoby Ellsbury gone, Tanaka might just be the best free agent out there.

Last year in Japan, Tanaka went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA, as he took home the Japan title with Rakuten this year. He is the next Yu Darvish, but has a much different approach. Tanaka is a strikeout pitcher like Darvish, but instead of a fastball to dominate, he has a splitter that is beautiful. He has the fastball of Darvish, a splitter to Koji Uehara, and the longevity of Walter Johnson. He can go the distance, having 8 complete games in 2013 and 14 in 2011.

While a team cannot go wrong with the other free agent pitchers still out there, like Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Ervin Santana. But Tanaka brings a different plate to the table, and here’s why.

First is his age. You look at Jimenez, Garza, and Santana, and they are around age 30. Tanaka, believe it or not, will be 25 next season. He’s played in Japan since age 18, playing with guys like Yu Darvish and Hisashi Iwakuma. Those two were #2 and #3 in the AL Cy Young voting this year, respectively.

His young age and veteran leadership without reaching his prime (age 27-28) yet makes Tanaka available for teams that are not ready for winning it all yet. This is why Tanaka is perfect for the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs will not become a contending team until at best 2015. For 2014, watch the Cubs finish a little bit below .500, as some of their top prospects, like Kris Bryant, Mike Olt, and Joler Soler, make an appearance for this next season. They also have prospects Javier Baez and Albert Almora that should make their appearances in 2016. 

The Cubs are looking to be strong contenders continuously, kind of like what the St. Louis Cardinals are doing. Despite them having the worst three seasons in team history, they now have some of the best stuff to work with.

GM Jed Hoyer and President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein have deeply expressed interest in Tanaka, and have also mentioned how they are looking to add one, if not two, starters to their rotation.

As of now, they have Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, and Jake Arrieta, with Carlos Villanueva, Justin Grimm, and Chris Rusin fighting for that 5 spot. Adding Tanaka means putting those guys in SP/RP roles, and adds more talent to a horrible bullpen. There has been talks of Samardzija being traded, but both Hoyer and Epstein have continually expressed that Samardzija will be their opening-day starter.

Adding Tanaka to the Cubs would put them in October contention for many years… as long as they stay healthy. I’m hoping that we see a Darvish in Tanaka, and not a Daisuke Matzusaka (Red Sox fans might kill me for saying that).

Of course I want the Cubs to get Tanaka. But where else could he go? The Yankees are obviously contenders, after grabbing a bunch of hitters off the market but failing to acquire any pitching. Adding Tanaka not only adds starting pitching to contend, but, like the Cubs, it adds young talent, something that New York barely has.

Other teams interested are the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, and just recently the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Texas Rangers were interested before, but with the acquisition of Shin-Soo Choo for the long run, it seems like they no longer have the funds for Tanaka. The Dodgers could also sign Tanaka, but it might mean giving up Clayton Kershaw when he’s a free agent in two years. 

That is one problem with Tanaka: money. He could go as much as having a nine-figure deal with an organization. Whoever has the right price, they will get one of the best guys out there. But despite the high price, every team should at least negotiate with the $20 million posting fee.

Tanaka might just be one of the best pitchers in baseball in a few years, especially if he comes to the National League with less hitting.

He has expressed his desire to come to America, and now is his time. Cub fans, Christmas time is not yet over! I’d wish for Tanaka as a late present.

Hope everybody has a wonderful holiday break. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd